Sentimentcharts @Sentimentcharts
Tweet dedicati al sentiment dei mercati finanziari, grafici sul sentiment e sullo spessore Rimini, Italia Joined June 2011-
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As always an interesting collection of charts from @TheChartReport. A good one from @Bluekurtic (great follow on X) noting that if SPX closes positive today it will be the first for a Fed chair in his first meeting since Volcker nearly 50 years ago. The good news is other than Powell (who had the pleasure of starting his tenure with Volmaggedon and a tariff barrage, not helped by a quick rate hike) though things generally improved over the next week. The bad news is two and three months out things didn't go as well (although the last two bucked that trend).
Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @neilsethinew After a multi-week consolidation, the Industrials sector $XLI closed at new all-time highs. Get the full breakdown in today's report plus more great charts. ⬇️ thechartreport.com/06-16-26
🇰🇷 #Korea Stock Hedging Surges to Level That Warned of Past Selloffs - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
To put this in context, a 6-sigma event happens once every 4,030,00 years. 4 million years! It happened a couple weeks ago 😁
"US large cap Tech recently outperformed the S&P 500 by +6 standard deviations over the prior 50 days. No other rally since 2015 comes anywhere close." @DataTrekMB
Market leverage in Asian markets is through the roof: Assets under management (AUM) in leveraged South Korean and Taiwanese ETFs are up to a record $65 billion. Since the start of 2026, total leveraged ETF AUM has surged +490%. This comes as 16 new single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung and SK Hynix were launched in South Korea two weeks ago. By comparison, AUM in US leveraged ETFs stands near a record ~$180 billion. Meanwhile, the SK Hynix 2x long Leveraged ETF surged +50% on Monday despite a -7.7% decline in SK Hynix shares, posting a rare divergence. This fund should have declined -15% under normal tracking conditions. Other single-stock leveraged ETFs tracking SK Hynix ended the session within normal ranges. Investors are taking on more leverage than at any point in history.
NDR's pattern matching tool shows that the NASDAQ has closely tracked the dotcom analog and is closer to 1998 than 2000. It still suggests near-term volatility ahead.
@neilksethi This is not a total return index, which has surpassed the 2000 high for years thanks to the high dividends of Italian stocks.
Nasdaq just triggered 8 Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome warnings in 3 weeks. When the 3-week warning count reached 8+, Nasdaq annualized returns averaged -24%. Price keeps pushing higher. So do the warnings. Read full analysis:sentimentrader.com/pricing
Great data. Seasonals like this are real, and at the same time, beneath the surface, Autos, Transports, Homebuilders, and Financials are all diverging from $SPX near its 252-day high. In 10 prior setups, the 3-month median return was -2.9% with a 44% win rate. The 1-year median comes back to +13.4%. The full year may still deliver. The path there is the question.
I call this one of those 'it is what it is' studies. S&P 500 up more than 1% the first 5 days and higher in January? The full year has been green 92% of the time.
For added context, these internal divergences are becoming increasingly common, now far exceed the levels seen at the peak of the tech bubble. When these conditions eventually unwind, they tend to do so in spectacular fashion.
Huge breadth divergence today, and I’d expect more of the same into $NVDA earnings this Wed/Thurs. This is setting up to be the largest single-weighted earnings event in $SPX history.
Momentum stocks are experiencing one of their sharpest rallies relative to minimum-volatility equities on record. Source: @RealAlpineMacro
⚠️THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED: The S&P 500 Gamma has surged from deeply negative levels at the end of March to the highest since 2021, the fastest surge EVER. The only comparable episode was late 2021, when a similarly extreme gamma setup preceded a market top by just 1-2 months. Gamma measures how much market makers must buy or sell in stock futures to hedge their options positions. When gamma is positive and rising, market makers act as a stabilizing force, buying dips and selling rallies. When it swings this violently from negative to positive, it signals an extraordinarily unstable market structure underneath a calm surface. This has been driven by extreme speculation, particularly in the semiconductor stocks. When a market reversal comes, it will be sharp and severe.
Market breadth is deteriorating: Only 22% of stocks in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index over the last 30 days, the 3rd-lowest reading since 1996. This is down from 65% recorded in February, the highest percentage in 8 months and less than half of the long-term average of 50%. Over the last 30 years, there have been only 2 brief periods when market breadth was weaker, in 2024 and 2025. This comes as the Magnificent 7 now accounts for a near-record 35% of the S&P 500’s market cap, while the top 10% account for ~40%, also shy of an all-time high. As a result, Information Technology and Communication Services sectors represent 46% of the S&P 500’s market value. Big tech is all that matters.
🇺🇸 Wall Street projects hyperscalers’ free cash flow to fall by over 70% from its peak by the end of 2026, even as earnings keep climbing - Bloomberg
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