Deer Point Macro @deerpointmacro
Macroeconomics, emerging and developed markets, FX, covered interest rate parity, and cross-currency basis swaps. South Carolina Joined August 2019-
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Consumption tends to lead changes in liquid cash reserves for households 🇨🇦: Household tend to try to smooth consumption. When consumption deteriorates the first utilization tends to be credit, then savings, and then the most liquid forms of assets. As a function of that…
latest sub post: The Repo Market Exodus, Part II (Extended Edition) concoda.com/p/the-repo-mar…
🇨🇦 first time in almost a year single family investment was greater than multi family. Multi family getting constrained from high rates and PDV of these capital intensive projects become less attractive. So less high rise investment. Decline in condo sales hasn’t helped…
Canada wealth effect has been a big driver of consumption. The massive rise in financial assets of households have increased rapidly since the 1990s. This when you started to see a fall off in the savings rate. This has also tended to follow the increase in both the S&P 500 as…
Count nails it
Count nails it https://t.co/v1579rfxN6
Graphically representation of Canada's productivity issues. Simply depreciation greater than capital investment. Let’s consider the equation 𝑘_𝑡+1=𝑖_𝑡+(1−𝛿)𝑘_𝑡. We can substitute variables to provide clarity. Firstly, we replace 𝑖𝑡 with 𝑖_𝑡=𝑠𝑦𝑡, where 𝑠𝑦…
A new centrally cleared era in repo markets is looming, which will cause an exodus from its shadowy yet most systemic regions. This may increase resiliency but also inhibit key trades gluing U.S. Treasury markets together. The Repo Leverage Squeeze™ is here... 1/
2s10s tends to follow changes in output gap. Renormalizing of output gap should help to steepend yield curve. A large explanation of this is the change in the output gap is a sign of inflation/deflationary changes in the price level.
GDP comes in at 1.6% QoQ: Inventories and net exports seemed to be what was the constraint. Real final sales around 200bps. The economy still seems resilient albeit growing at a a slower pace than the previous 3.4%. Growth should continue to grow at a steadier pace than 2023,…
The newest read @LafferCenter
Canada retail sales comes in much lower than expectation: Looking at private sector demand we have seen it come down quiet rapidly since the peak. One of the large drivers of private sector demand is the credit impulse. Looking at the change in new borrowing (credit impulse) we…
Taxes and revenues Since the decline in corporate income taxes and the stabilizing in 2011 around 26.5% we have seen a huge increase in tax revenues as a % GDP. The inclusion rate that is being enacted is a step in the opposite direction. This has been known for a long period…
Canada's negative wealth effects: Within the macroeconomic variables that effect the economy one that has strong effects is that of the wealth effect. In theory higher nominal interest rates should increase wealth of savers. However, in a society with increased debt loads (more…
Despite spending between the 2nd to 3rd most as a % of GDP on healthcare in the OECD Canada has one of the largest resource constraints. This can be seen below by the rapid decline in hospital beds per thousand. Other aspects highlighted have been MRI per 1,000,000 as well as…
Michael Green @profplum99
173K Followers 1K Following Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of $FIG | not investment advice
Special Situations �.. @SpecialSitsNews
105K Followers 1K Following Managed $2B+ at Goldman. Education/Ideas: M&A Arb, Value+Catalyst, Growth, CEFs, REITs, Prefs, SPACs, Bonds, BK/Distressed. Discord team: https://t.co/Ix6dovncRx
George Noble @gnoble79
57K Followers 3K Following Managed Fidelity Overseas Fund, #1 mutual fund in USA. Former Peter Lynch assistant. Barron’s Round Table. Founded two $1b+ hedge funds. “KNOW WHAT YOU OWN.”
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
Kantro @MichaelKantro
86K Followers 806 Following Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler. CFA, Factor Investing, #HOPE, Respect The Lag, Not Financial Advice
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
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Steve Saretsky @SteveSaretsky
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Daniel Foch @daniel_foch
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Martin Pelletier @MPelletierCIO
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Ben Rabidoux @BenRabidoux
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Rahul @rhemrajani9
53K Followers 302 Following I try to simplify the markets ➡️ Macro insights 🔎 | Stock market info 📊 | Tech news 💬 | 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 🗞️ @TheOneRead | #Spaceshost | Not financial advice.
O’Hare Trade • Du.. @OHare888
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Sarah Giovinetti @Sarahgiovinetti
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Steve Bond for US Sen.. @SteveBondHawaii
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Michael Green @profplum99
173K Followers 1K Following Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of $FIG | not investment advice
Special Situations �.. @SpecialSitsNews
105K Followers 1K Following Managed $2B+ at Goldman. Education/Ideas: M&A Arb, Value+Catalyst, Growth, CEFs, REITs, Prefs, SPACs, Bonds, BK/Distressed. Discord team: https://t.co/Ix6dovncRx
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57K Followers 3K Following Managed Fidelity Overseas Fund, #1 mutual fund in USA. Former Peter Lynch assistant. Barron’s Round Table. Founded two $1b+ hedge funds. “KNOW WHAT YOU OWN.”
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
Kantro @MichaelKantro
86K Followers 806 Following Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler. CFA, Factor Investing, #HOPE, Respect The Lag, Not Financial Advice
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
94K Followers 2K Following GS Commodities Trader➡Canyon Cvt/Cap Arb➡Akanthos Multi-Arb/Distressed➡Kao Family Office🏦Globetrotter✈ Headbanger🤘Star Wars Fan🌌 Mixologist🍸Diver🤿
Steve Saretsky @SteveSaretsky
53K Followers 816 Following Real Estate aficionado. Vancouver Realtor & investor. Host of The Loonie Hour podcast.
Daniel Foch @daniel_foch
36K Followers 4K Following The Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast. Real Estate.
Martin Pelletier @MPelletierCIO
47K Followers 4K Following Senior PM @TriVest_WAPC | CFA Charterholder | Invest Pro Columnist @fpinvesting | Risk-Managed Investing | Market Strategy | Views my own | No checkmark not me
Ben Rabidoux @BenRabidoux
37K Followers 2K Following Canadian housing/macro/credit...occasionally tweets about fishing. Founder of North Cove Advisors and @EdgeREAnalytics. DMs open. Equal opportunity blocker.
Rahul @rhemrajani9
53K Followers 302 Following I try to simplify the markets ➡️ Macro insights 🔎 | Stock market info 📊 | Tech news 💬 | 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 🗞️ @TheOneRead | #Spaceshost | Not financial advice.
O’Hare Trade • Du.. @OHare888
10K Followers 888 Following Finding Value Through Focused Research PCX Options-Bear Stearns R.I.P🇺🇸🇵🇱🇮🇱
CrossBorder Capital @crossbordercap
76K Followers 496 Following Global research group focussed on monitoring credit,liquidity conditions & capital flows in over 90 economies [email protected] for GLI index and data
Bill @wabuffo
23K Followers 2K Following 1) If you have no edge, correct position size is 'don't buy”. 2) Position sizing is determined by downside. 3) All great investing records employed leverage.
Jack Farley @JackFarley96
61K Followers 4K Following Host of @ForwardGuidance podcast: https://t.co/YtVwCD0YO9 Finance journalist & macro research @Blockworks_
Nasma Ali @nasmadotali
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ReWoman👠 @REWoman
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Neely @NeelyTamminga
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Nugget Capital Partne.. @NuggetCapital
3K Followers 465 Following Energy nerd. Markets enthusiast. Research analyst specializing in resources w/ a focus on energy. Long-short specialist. Principal at Nugget Capital (NCP) #OOTT
The Laffer Center @LafferCenter
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Deqa Nur Shabel, Bach.. @deqanur
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Adam 🇨🇦⛰️ @AssetTraveller
7K Followers 689 Following This account is for stocks, RE and educating Canadian socialists 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 Catan 🧙♂️
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2K Followers 3K Following Government Relations Consultant. Talks about #CityBuilding, #Housing, #Urbanism #Policy, #Politics. Views are my own!
Layan Odeh ليان �.. @Layanmazenodeh
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5K Followers 3K Following #براندازم٫ #جمهوریخواهم٫ #محافظه_کار متمایل به راست٫ Atheist٫ #ملی_گرا مردمم با هر خوبی یا بدی برایم عزیزند
Nother Alex Fergusson.. @nother_fella2
5K Followers 3K Following NAFO SquaDrone Leader and Fella. Ardent supporter of 🇺🇦 and Women, Life, Freedom. CEO of FAC Technology; Aerospace Design Organisation UK.AP1002. 🇬🇧❤️🇺🇦
10Δ @_10delta_
19K Followers 491 Following macro dilettante. narrative navigator. occasional shitposter.
Faruk B. (Financium) @FarukBB44
37K Followers 2K Following Finans, Borsa yolculuğunda sizin yanınızdayım. 📈 Tavsiye değil, fikir paylaşımıdır... Belki bir servet fırsatı, belki de güvenli bir liman. #FinansalBilgelik
Merlin Capital 🧙�.. @merlinscapital
11K Followers 286 Following Official Wiztwit. Local Market Philosopher and Wizard, 674 yr old. Stock Market News Commentary and Analysis. The Wiz Merlin Pod now out.
Altai Jusan 🇹🇷�.. @jusanid03
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ZG @GassanovZaur
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Simon Belanger @Fiat_iceberg
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Rachel264ver 🎗️ @rachel4ever26
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ConvexSwan @vighnaraj2022
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Viking @RelevantWarrior
3K Followers 5K Following #AmericaIsAlreadyGreat #ArmyWarVeteran #J6wasaninsurrection #heàlthcareisahumanright #RussiaIsATerroristState #FreeIranFromtheIRGC #Foozool news Army
Blue Deer Capital @Bluedeerc
16K Followers 306 Following Dealer Flows and Volatility To get full access to all our market reads, commentary, and current positions click the link below
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Background N015e @backgroundN015e
1K Followers 798 Following I have not touched anything all day, except your memory and a few cigarettes. -------- Love Letters From The Revolution #RFC1855
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11K Followers 211 Following Ex Hedge Fund Manager; Global Macro Volatility Portfolio Manager. Chicago Booth MBA & CFA. My views do not consist of investment advice.
🇼🇴�.. @WogPogReal
15K Followers 6K Following Systems Analyst Solutionist High Plains Drifter Keepin' it Real https://t.co/IWjQDPJI7GThe Yen's fall will go some way to keep Japan's trade balance positive, and its net international investment position (NIIP) climbing. The NIIP represents assets that can be sold if Japan finds itself in capital outflow because of trade - making the buffer to crisis immense. 1/
" If you bought $tsla at $14 & Still hold you either fantasise about satisfying Elon or believe cameras will drive cars " 🤣 @ProvenReserves BTW cheap gas is going to ruin the party for a lot of $commodities bulls youtu.be/MgBRiMywnek
For all those going to the #CrawfishBoil2024 don't forget to eat breakfast and pregame like the best! #EFT
For all those asking if you can bring a +1 to the crawfish boil, yes you can. Just have them register. We already have 200 people registered so you need to do it quick.
First basket is out! IYKYK #CrawfishBoil2024 @DWildcatters @nimblephatty @FracSlap #EFT
For all those asking if you can bring a +1 to the crawfish boil, yes you can. Just have them register. We already have 200 people registered so you need to do it quick.
latest sub post: The Repo Market Exodus, Part II (Extended Edition) concoda.com/p/the-repo-mar…
@deerpointmacro Look at financials as a % of TSX to tell you all you need to know about the financialization of Canada. Financials as % of S&P500 peaked at over 20% in 2007 prior to GFC while financials in 🇨🇦 comprise 34% of $XIU.TO
@deerpointmacro I know tbh Spent more time on this than plumbing
Mute "stagflation" on your feed, this was another incredible US GDP result. Growth ex net trade and inventory = 2.8% (2.77% last Q) Govt contribution down, but residential investment picking up the slack! Non-res still printing positive. Cyclical parts of GDP crushing it. 1/
@deerpointmacro Thoughts on why depreciation is up?
A new centrally cleared era in repo markets is looming, which will cause an exodus from its shadowy yet most systemic regions. This may increase resiliency but also inhibit key trades gluing U.S. Treasury markets together. The Repo Leverage Squeeze™ is here... 1/
LFG $PM
The ZYN Market is absolutely exploding. 80% YoY Growth is insane. $PM
The Week with @PiQSuite has an impressive lineup of speakers coming soon to Spaces including: @NeelyTamminga @paulcerro @deerpointmacro @merlinscapital @JulianKlymochko Set a reminder to join us⤵️ x.com/i/spaces/1zqjv…
Turkish coffee and a good conversation with a friend 👌🏻
@davevermilion @deerpointmacro Bear Steepeners historically OK for equities vs Bull Steepeners.
Dollar vulnerable. Lots of $ strong headlines. Positioning is big. Data is softening.
everyone relax. consumption & fixed investment components of GDP were very strong.
Real GDP growth came in at 1.6% in Q1, softer than expected. But that appears to be driven by weakness in volatile components, especially net exports. Private domestic final purchases--"core GDP" made up of consumption & fixed investment--grew 3.1%, a very strong print.
Yesterday's segment with @cvpayne on @FoxBusiness foxbusiness.com/video/63514973… #FoxBusiness #macro #hope
@deerpointmacro From one pocket to the other... "Fiscal thrust", I like it. 👏
Well @DeFi had the opportunity to hit up Dubai @token2049 Was great catching up with many of De.Fi's partners and Web3 friends. Seems the rain storm and floods didn't stop crowds of people from flocking in to attend the event. It was a packed house!…
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