Jason Furman @jasonfurman
Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA. hks.harvard.edu/faculty/jason-… Cambridge, MA Joined April 2011-
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Data & perspective Inflation peaked in June 2022 The deceleration we have seen since is the fastest in 50 years, w/o brutal rise in unemployment. The length of time that prices accelerated was short in historically but the first such acceleration in decades. Still painful.…
Ok nerds, let’s talk triangle weighting. A lot of people (well, two…) have asked my why March core PCE inflation came in as expected at 0.3%, when that was the expectation *before* the GDP report came out with the higher-than-expected core rate for Q1. After all…
Real disposable personal income per capita is roughly consistent with CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Real consumption per capita is well above that forecast. Squaring the circle: the saving rate is low.
Core PCE inflation over the last 3 months was a 4.4% annual rate. That is higher than any time from Nov 1990 to Mar 2021. Yes, there were special factors, seasonal issues, etc. But there were also special factors & seasonal issues at various times in those previous 30 years.
I've been impressed with the rapid amount of change being catalyzed by the CHIPS program. But then again, I know vastly less about the topic than @crmiller1 does.
I've been impressed with the rapid amount of change being catalyzed by the CHIPS program. But then again, I know vastly less about the topic than @crmiller1 does.
Joey Politano 🏳️.. @JosephPolitano
64K Followers 1K Following Writing a data-driven newsletter about economics @ https://t.co/IanQ9oPoPi | Nuance? In this economy? | he/him | Bi/pan
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
Lawrence H. Summers @LHSummers
326K Followers 706 Following Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard. Secretary of the Treasury for President Clinton and Director of NEC for President Obama
Conor Sen @conorsen
92K Followers 296 Following Columnist for @opinion. Founder of Peachtree Creek Investments. Sun Belt/monoculture enthusiast. The future is a policy choice.
Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior
83K Followers 869 Following Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://t.co/toyjfDruRu
Wojtek Kopczuk 🇵�.. @wwwojtekk
48K Followers 1K Following Economist, tax policy/inequality. Editor of @JPubEcon. President @iipf_org. Professional skeptic. Anti-illiberal. Persiflageur.
Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1
169K Followers 389 Following Robert Solow Professor of economics emeritus, MIT Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers
227K Followers 2K Following Professor @UMichEcon & @FordSchool | Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst & @PIIE | Intro Econ textbook author | Think Like an Economist podcast.
Matt Darling 🌐🏗.. @besttrousers
47K Followers 3K Following Senior Employment Policy Analyst @niskanencenter. Chief Neoliberal Shill 2023. Labor/behavioral economics and causal inference.
Maia @maiamindel
15K Followers 377 Following Busy writing about economics, and/or Lydia Tár + Sandra Voyter slashfic
Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
97K Followers 953 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
Brian Albrecht @BrianCAlbrecht
26K Followers 2K Following Applied economic theorist: competition and information. Chief Economist @LawEconCenter 📝Price Theory Newsletter https://t.co/1S7TB6ANUP
Arin Dube @arindube
53K Followers 1K Following Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst). Inequality, labor market policies and competition. Book project: The Wage Standard. @nberpubs @MITshapingwork
Alex Tabarrok 🛡️ @ATabarrok
76K Followers 673 Following Prof of economics at George Mason, co-founder of the online education platform https://t.co/yocRRymFPV. Advisor to firms, incl MultiversX, TEAL, Bluechip, 0L Network +
Dario Perkins @darioperkins
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Ben Golub 🇺🇦 �.. @ben_golub
49K Followers 2K Following econ prof @NorthwesternU visiting Stanford 23-24 social and economic networks from Ukraine past: @Harvard | @Stanford'12 | @Caltech '07
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Peter Hull @instrumenthull
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Exposing #Terrorists .. @SSh1396993
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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
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Lawrence H. Summers @LHSummers
326K Followers 706 Following Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard. Secretary of the Treasury for President Clinton and Director of NEC for President Obama
Conor Sen @conorsen
92K Followers 296 Following Columnist for @opinion. Founder of Peachtree Creek Investments. Sun Belt/monoculture enthusiast. The future is a policy choice.
Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior
83K Followers 869 Following Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://t.co/toyjfDruRu
Wojtek Kopczuk 🇵�.. @wwwojtekk
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Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1
169K Followers 389 Following Robert Solow Professor of economics emeritus, MIT Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers
227K Followers 2K Following Professor @UMichEcon & @FordSchool | Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst & @PIIE | Intro Econ textbook author | Think Like an Economist podcast.
Matt Darling 🌐🏗.. @besttrousers
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Maia @maiamindel
15K Followers 377 Following Busy writing about economics, and/or Lydia Tár + Sandra Voyter slashfic
Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
97K Followers 953 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
Brian Albrecht @BrianCAlbrecht
26K Followers 2K Following Applied economic theorist: competition and information. Chief Economist @LawEconCenter 📝Price Theory Newsletter https://t.co/1S7TB6ANUP
Arin Dube @arindube
53K Followers 1K Following Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst). Inequality, labor market policies and competition. Book project: The Wage Standard. @nberpubs @MITshapingwork
Alex Tabarrok 🛡️ @ATabarrok
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Dario Perkins @darioperkins
60K Followers 2K Following MD Global Macro @TS_Lombard, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
Ben Golub 🇺🇦 �.. @ben_golub
49K Followers 2K Following econ prof @NorthwesternU visiting Stanford 23-24 social and economic networks from Ukraine past: @Harvard | @Stanford'12 | @Caltech '07
Ivan Werning @IvanWerning
63K Followers 2K Following MIT Professor of Economics | Macro, International, Public, Monetary, Taxes, Finance | v = u + β v | Beatles | Boston Argentina
Peter Hull @instrumenthull
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As you know, my favorite Jason Furman statistic is the ecumenical #PCE inflation measure (8 different measures over 3 different time periods annualized) comes in at 3% actually down a tenth (but far from the 2% target).
The PCE-based Ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.0% in March, down 0.1pp from February. This is the median of 24 different measures: 8 different bases over 3, 6 and 12 months. FWIW, my own judgment is underlying inflation is 2.5 to 3.0%, probably top of that range.
Fine about the last sentence. If they have made their argument well, there would be no point.
@DeanBaker13 2. If long terms--and the Governors actually stay for them--then my concern in (1) is less germane. 3. Fine for CEA to do analysis on dynamics of inflation, unemployment, interest rates. But they shouldn't add the last sentence, "so the Fed should do X." And this one hasn't.
@jasonfurman Your posts are always a great summary, thank you.
@jasonfurman Thank you for clarifying, much appreciated Jason
@jasonfurman Had both growth and PCE gone down, the stock market would ripped to the upside, and interest rates would have fallen because it would have resurrected the possibility of an early Fed cut, as early as the June meeting, and leave open the possibility for 2-3 more in 2024.
@belaischa @jasonfurman I absolutely agree. It could make sense to leave some reallocation-induced productivity growth on the table in favor of employment for that very reason.
@jasonfurman Because if there's anything Donald Trump believes in, it's democracy . . .
@jasonfurman I am not among them. This would be nothing short of disastrous.
I found this from the IMF pretty shocking: Europe and Canada have basically offset the *entire* post-2008 reduction in overall labor force participation from aging by increasing female labor force participation. Clearly something for us to learn from.
It's worth a bit more angsting, studying & debating what we can do in the United States to improve our labor market recoveries. The European one was much better--got back to pre-COVID by mid-2021, a year and a half before we did. And prime age EPOP now 2pp higher than pre-COVID.
@jasonfurman Omg one of the most terrifying stories of my childhood. It still scares me.
Sorry. I've thought about it a bit and I'm wrong. Robots are boring, and this is extremely funny.
Not working in economics anymore, but much love as a casual consumer of the output--the state of economics looks pretty good these days and keeps getting better
Economics is an ecosystem and I love most or perhaps even all of it. Theorists. Empiricists. Government statisticians. Ivory tower academics. In the trenches think tankers. Investment bank economists. Government economists. Tweeters. And many more I didn't mention.
China is shredding through export markets all around the world and, at the same time, China is deglobalizing: how is that possible? 👉The China Globalization Paradox Today's Factful Friday:(🔗linkedin.com/pulse/chinese-…) cc: @IMD_Bschool @alanbeattie @jasonfurman @JustinWolfers…
Q: The Council of Economic Advisers: What is it? And who cares? A: It's the White House's econ think tank, and POTUS cares. You should too. New Statecraft with @marthagimbel, on what goes on at CEA. statecraft.pub/p/how-to-wrang…
This graph would be much more striking if it DIDN’T use a log scale
Sometimes I feel like focusing on policies that only affect growth rates by a few tenths of a percentage point feels small. But then I remind myself that the difference between the United States and Argentina over the last 120 years was 0.5 percentage point.
The Y axis is logarithmic. The power of compound.
Sometimes I feel like focusing on policies that only affect growth rates by a few tenths of a percentage point feels small. But then I remind myself that the difference between the United States and Argentina over the last 120 years was 0.5 percentage point.
@jasonfurman Strong start, I think! I even included the "cite" 😀 economicstrategygroup.org/publication/jo…
Unpopular opinion: the fact that the only quote tweets currently making fun of this 👇 are by economic theorists and imply that this could never be theory-related is not flattering for economic theory. (Popular opinion: @ben_golub will quote tweet this with "Eigenvalues" soon.)
I was just the Under Secretary for Economic Affairs at the U.S. Commerce Department. Here's the economic research that was really helpful to us. (Thank you @mattyglesias for the opportunity to guest-post!) slowboring.com/p/the-economic…
he left out mba students????
Economics is an ecosystem and I love most or perhaps even all of it. Theorists. Empiricists. Government statisticians. Ivory tower academics. In the trenches think tankers. Investment bank economists. Government economists. Tweeters. And many more I didn't mention.
@jasonfurman notwithstanding the cyclical vitriol, economics ecosystem is still much better than the cesspool that is Geopolitics X/twitter
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