Alf @MacroAlf
Founder of The Macro Compass. Former Head of $20bn Portfolio. Next: CIO of my own Macro Fund. TheMacroCompass.com Joined December 2020-
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Weekend listening .. @MacroAlf and I talk about whether yields are overshooting and the reflation story is peaking. I think so. open.spotify.com/episode/6Xlcyl…
Canadian households are facing the highest debt service ratio since 2006. O Canada!
You can think of the TGA as the checking account the US Government holds at its bank - which is the Fed. Every time the US government has accumulated excess money that it doesn't intend to immediately channel into spending, they will park it at the TGA account at the Fed. 6/
So one important thing to watch will be the share between T-Bill and long-bond issuance Yellen plans to put forward over the next 1-2 quarters. The other crucial element will be the Treasury General Account target. Why? 5/
...because they carry very limited interest rate risk. A 30-year bond is roughly 20x more volatile than a 12-month T-Bill. You can imagine how for market participants its easier to absorb trillions of T-Bills than trillions of long bonds! 4/
For the next 12 months markets are now pricing: A) 2%+ real GDP growth B) 2.5% core inflation C) 90% odds of a soft/no landing Good luck
To clear the debate once and for all. Higher interest rates might be stimulative until more households and corporates have to refinance their debt. At that point all they can stimulate is a recession.
I will always be grateful to the FinTwit community for the support received over the years: cheers! Been very busy with the hedge fund launch but I’ll be soon back sharing more macro thoughts here.
A reminder that China, India and Russia are alone responsible for over 40% of global CO2 emissions. But Western people should definitely turn off airco and drink from paper straws this summer! :)
Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact
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Weekend listening .. @MacroAlf and I talk about whether yields are overshooting and the reflation story is peaking. I think so. open.spotify.com/episode/6Xlcyl…
We created a daily-updating index that tracks aggregate LTM revenue growth for all global public companies, weighted by USD revenue 1-year ago. The growth slowdown is quite striking...
Reminder Druck literally doesn't understand how the economy works.
@MacroAlf Thanks Alf! Great to hear some of the thoughts resonated with you!
A year ago I left my job at a hedge fund in NY to start my own fund, Bristlemoon Capital. Some thoughts below on the journey of launching a fund (both the good and bad):
"The MOF can stay silent longer than USDJPY shorts can stay solvent." Keynes, or someone
@BobEUnlimited Euro nom GDP growth has been running at a far lower level than the US roughly in line with the difference in the deficit...
@TopTradersLive @andrewdbeer1 Here is a chart from Dan Rasmussen doing the rounds on LinkedIn. Over the last decade, bonds were favored for their ability to move opposite to stocks, but the inflation surge in 2022 showed us that this pattern breaks down when inflation exceeds 3%. Historical insights…
@MacroAlf Since the introduction of “suggested tip” on the bill staring at 20% where people would otherwise have to do the lower tip math on their own has made the service industry workers billions of extra dollars. Behavioural finance nudging working its magic.
I continue to emphasize that the intuition that investors have developed over the past 40 years will not be useful in the next 10.
Bonds are a good hedge for stock investors only if core inflation is predictably below 3%. Otherwise they suck at diversifying portfolios.
@MacroAlf To be fair we outsourced our CO2 emissions to China a long time ago, but it still ours.
@TheFlowHorse I learned this wrestling in HS, after that I any fight I got in I would just let the dude gas himself out in the first minute before going to work 😀🍻
The latest podcast with @MacroAlf is out for your weekend listening pleasure. Enjoy the sunshine. spectramarkets.com/library/podcas…
@MacroAlf @verdadcap Yes! One of the very best newsletters out there.
@MacroAlf Thank you so much, Alf! Here's the link to our email list for those interested: eepurl.com/dibK3L
Someone covering tail risk in SOFR SFRZ4 98.50/99 call spread bot at .625 80000x Only $1.25m spent - perfect trade to keep the risk manager happy and also remind your executing broker that you need tickets for centre court at Wimbledon in June