Jesse Felder @jessefelder
"I'm just lookin' for clues at the scene of the crime..." thefelderreport.com Gleneden Beach, Oregon Joined March 2007-
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"Global inflation remains undefeated. A key force for disinflation — falling commodity prices — has essentially hit a wall. The world is at a vulnerable moment: a major energy shock could undermine much of the progress in reducing inflation." ft.com/content/769c8c…
'Microsoft dropped $14B in capex in the latest quarter—more than the company used to spend in an entire year just five years ago. Alphabet's outlay of $12B nearly doubled from the same quarter last year.' wsj.com/business/earni…
'Valuations of the world's gold producers, led by Newmont and Barrick, have rarely been as heavily discounted in the past 40 years versus the gold price as they are now.' ft.com/content/69d46a…
This former $TSLA C-Suite executive is selling virtually all his shares, but I’m sure FSD and robotaxis are right around the corner…
California's unemployment rate has been rising since August 2022, up to 5.3% now. It keeps going up, yet the national unemployment rate hasn't followed it. Pay attention: California may be sending a warning.
Core PCE inflation over the last 3 months was a 4.4% annual rate. That is higher than any time from Nov 1990 to Mar 2021. Yes, there were special factors, seasonal issues, etc. But there were also special factors & seasonal issues at various times in those previous 30 years.
This is clearly not heading in the right direction: 3-month annualized change in core PCE #inflation up to +4.4% in March
Also not heading in right direction: “supercore” PCE #inflation +0.39% month/month in March, taking year/year rate back up to +3.5%
Silver is retesting major multi-year support and should consolidate, then trade much higher from current levels. $SI_F $SIVR
'Biden and Congress continue to stoke demand in an economy that already has plenty. Tight monetary and loose fiscal policy sucks in capital from overseas and drives up the dollar incentivizing protectionism.' wsj.com/economy/global…
"The prevailing question for investors remains 'when does the Generative AI piece of the equation ramp more fully?' Investor patience for top-line results has worn thin." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
'Zuckerberg warned that the investments would increase "meaningfully" and take a long time to generate returns for the social networking company — perhaps years.' bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
'Almost 120,000 corporate positions have vanished from Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco combined during the past year. White-collar payrolls also declined in smaller hubs such as Phoenix and Seattle.' bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
US Economy Slows and Inflation Jumps, Damping Soft-Landing Hopes bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
'China first overtook the U.S. in 2013. Since then, the country has seen enormous growth in the number of AI patents granted each year.' visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-ai… by @VisualCap
'Lack of supply and high mortgage rates keep homes expensive, pressuring rents higher as potential buyers find themselves stuck in the rental market. Elevated shelter inflation leads the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, hindering construction.' bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
'Half of Americans — including 42% of Democrats — say they'd support mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.' axios.com/2024/04/25/tru…
'The total fertility rate fell to 1.62 births per woman in 2023, a 2% decline from a year earlier and the lowest rate recorded since the government began tracking it in the 1930s.' wsj.com/us-news/americ…
Commodity prices are moving higher driven by the following: 1) Reaccelerating US growth 2) Geopolitical uncertainty 3) Segmentation of global trade, and 4) Strong AI demand for energy apolloacademy.com/commodity-pric…
'US Oil Fund, the biggest oil ETF, posted its largest daily outflow on record as crude prices lose some of the geopolitical premium that was built in from tensions between Iran and Israel.' bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
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15K Followers 349 Following Institutional Research Disclosure: https://t.co/jZZZtQNGaY Distributor: Compass Distributors, LLCBuy low and sell high. Natural gas is currently re-testing the lows of its prior 7 major bottoms. If you ask me, time to step in.
Has a freight recession resurfaced? The state of the freight industry is looking soft as Old Dominion Freight, Knight-Swift, J.B. Hunt and UPS all had some sort of negatives emerge from earnings/guidance. Beyond that, the Dow Transports are off nearly -10% from the cycle high.
To fill this morning’s gaps, $SPY would have to decline to 504.27 and $QQQ to 425.32. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is.
This former $TSLA C-Suite executive is selling virtually all his shares, but I’m sure FSD and robotaxis are right around the corner…
The “Cyclical Economy” aggregates employment and output for the high-powered engine of economic growth including residential construction, manufacturing, and durable goods consumption/transportation. Recessions always come with an annual contraction in the rate of growth for the…
California's unemployment rate has been rising since August 2022, up to 5.3% now. It keeps going up, yet the national unemployment rate hasn't followed it. Pay attention: California may be sending a warning.
Wild books stats from @ThisIsSethsBlog this morning. Thank you to all the readers of "The Confidence Map" for putting my book in the green area of the pie chart. It's humbling and thrilling all at the same time.
Core PCE inflation over the last 3 months was a 4.4% annual rate. That is higher than any time from Nov 1990 to Mar 2021. Yes, there were special factors, seasonal issues, etc. But there were also special factors & seasonal issues at various times in those previous 30 years.
This is clearly not heading in the right direction: 3-month annualized change in core PCE #inflation up to +4.4% in March
Also not heading in right direction: “supercore” PCE #inflation +0.39% month/month in March, taking year/year rate back up to +3.5%
Silver is retesting major multi-year support and should consolidate, then trade much higher from current levels. $SI_F $SIVR
We created a daily-updating index that tracks aggregate LTM revenue growth for all global public companies, weighted by USD revenue 1-year ago. The growth slowdown is quite striking...
How to know if a currency is collapsing…
Who knew hot chocolate was actually a commodity pairs trade?
Yesterday, three stocks opened higher and closed lower. While technically not a candle pattern I would label, it does speak to the short-term reaction to initial optimism. Traders selling strength after the initial bounce! Not bullish for $V $STLD $ENPH.
@jessefelder Bloated corporate payrolls are in the crosshairs now X/Musk showed that companies need less workers than they think, and after labor hoarding, companies are cutting the fat to maintain profit margins As economy slows, they'll start cutting muscle. Then bone.
A weedy, potential explanation about the hotter than expect ed core PCE inflation implied by the gdp print today: pce deflator weights uses a Fisher Ideal index formula, vs cpi uses Laspeyres weighting. Why does that matter? So the PCE inflation uses moving weights, so if the…
The company was priced to perfection going into this, driven almost entirely by a combination of cost efficiency initiatives (recovering from the metaverse spending binge hangover) and AI hope. Both of those themes imploded. Violently. The spending efficiency and AI hope ended.
A lot of people probably remember similar talk regarding the metaverse. At the time it was the future, it was an area of aggressive spend, but nobody could explain how all this spending would provide a return on the investment. I think that scared people listening to the call.
The company plans to keep aggressively spending on their AI initiatives. I think Zuck said AI about 100 times without really articulating a vision as to how this converts to higher revenue and earnings. But he did make it clear that the costs would be much higher than expected..