Neil Sethi @neilksethi
Managing Partner at Sethi Associates. Hopeless optimist. Reposts appreciated. Columbus, OH Joined December 2013-
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Looks like I jumped the gun on the MACD crossover for #SPX as it turned lower after the decline. Also, I should note that even when we get the actual crossover, it can be weeks before the index follows.
Looks like I jumped the gun on the MACD crossover for #SPX as it turned lower after the decline. Also, I should note that even when we get the actual crossover, it can be weeks before the index follows. https://t.co/Nd4joGSa5b
Positive volume dropped sharply to just 12% NYSE, 33% Nasdaq. Issues were 17 and 26%. New highs-new lows dropped to 29 and -70.
Positive volume dropped sharply to just 12% NYSE, 33% Nasdaq. Issues were 17 and 26%. New highs-new lows dropped to 29 and -70.
#Dollar threatening to break out of bull flag. $DXY
Some other shares moving after hours. $PINS, $SMCI, $CHK, $CZR, $MDLZ, $FANG, $CLX via @CNBC
#FOMC rate cut exp's cont'd to fall through the day ending w/a cut by Sept now under 50%. A cut by November down to a 57% probability, and just 26 bps of #Fed cuts priced for this yr, so basically one, w/a 27% chance of no cuts this year.
Amazon shares modestly higher w/big beat on operating income & raise of midpoint of 2Q guidance with cloud rev's above exp's more than offsetting a guide lower in 2Q rev's as cost cutting efforts bear fruit. $AMZN bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Amazon shares modestly higher w/big beat on operating income & raise of midpoint of 2Q guidance with cloud rev's above exp's more than offsetting a guide lower in 2Q rev's as cost cutting efforts bear fruit. $AMZN bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/DXXNsCBzZX
#SPX sector breadth very weak as might be exp'd w/a 6% day from $LLY all that saved us from having all 11 sectors red (health care was up +0.08%) but every other sector down at least -0.5%. Energy and communications had no green shares, RE had two. 8 sectors down at least -0.95%…
Starbucks shares down -8% in AH trade as comp store sales decline for 1st time since 2020 -4% vs exp's for a +1.5% incr w/global transactions down -6% on "widespread" weakness across every geographic segment. It also sees weakness carrying over into 2Q but kept it's FY EPS est as…
Starbucks shares down -8% in AH trade as comp store sales decline for 1st time since 2020 -4% vs exp's for a +1.5% incr w/global transactions down -6% on "widespread" weakness across every geographic segment. It also sees weakness carrying over into 2Q but kept it's FY EPS est as… https://t.co/7761Y0CZJg
$AMD shares trading lower despite 1Q beat as midpoint of 2Q rev's guided below exp's on weak gaming sales. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
$AMD shares trading lower despite 1Q beat as midpoint of 2Q rev's guided below exp's on weak gaming sales. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/QT0GnME2Vc
As of year-end 2023, the credit card balance utilization rate was 23.6%, slightly below the long-term average of 23.9%.
The Weekly Econ Index from @DallasFed (scaled as y/y rise for #GDP) as of Apr 20th improved to +1.90%, the highest since the 1st week of Jan, from r +1.71% the prior week (this series is consistently revised down), & the 13-wk avg has now inflected slightly higher to +1.64%.…
3M shares trading up on the day despite falling from the ranks of the "Dividend Kings" (stocks that have raised their payouts for 50 yrs (in $MMM's case it was 64)) cutting its dividend. msn.com/en-us/money/co…
3M shares trading up on the day despite falling from the ranks of the "Dividend Kings" (stocks that have raised their payouts for 50 yrs (in $MMM's case it was 64)) cutting its dividend. msn.com/en-us/money/co… https://t.co/6ope1IJoAg
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Coke shares little changed despite a beat on top & bottom lines as it keeps FYI earnings unch despite a raise to FY organic rev growth on price hikes w/certain markets seeing "intense inflation." Global volumes +1% while N America was flat. $KO cnbc.com/2024/04/30/coc…
Intel shares are on pace to close out April down more than 30% — their worst month in over 20 years — as the chipmaker continues to struggle with executing a turnaround. trib.al/RapZOLr
MORGAN STANLEY: We expect inflation data “to reverse to downside surprises in April. .. Several data series indicate a rapid deceleration in rents. .. Financial Services inflation is linked with stock market returns, and the reversal in the $SPX in April will likely push this…
The rise in German retail sales in March was fairly broad based by the looks of it. Early Easter might have helped. But the Q1 level was below the already weak Q4 level. So expectations of Q1 GDP edging higher rest on industry and construction (mild winter was a boost here).
BREAKING: For the first time since February, the national average price of gasoline has seen a weekly decline, falling 1.9c/gal to $3.63/gal. We don’t expect to see much overall movement to the national average for this week, but many states could see small declines!
🇨🇦🛢️ MUST READ: Canadian barrels too sour for LA refinery palates @MakaiMarine put serious leg work into the true capacity of US West Coast refineries to process post-TMX Cdn heavy sour barrels. Sulphur content limits will prove the true limiting factor. makaimarine.substack.com/p/canadian-bar…
Leading oil field service firms are bullish on the outlook for natural gas demand in coming years even though the fuel remains stuck in the doldrums for now, with US prices near pandemic lows amid oversupply after a mild winter. argusmedia.com/en/news-and-in…
Inventory 📍556,000 single family homes unsold on the market 📍That’s up 2.4% from last week and 32% more than a year ago 📍There are 90% more homes on the market than in 2022 📍In 2022 inventory was rising much faster than it is now, as were mortgage rates. In the inventory…
Last time 10y Treasury yield (blue) was hovering around its current level in 2007, S&P 500's forward P/E (white) was in the 14-15 range ... today, it's at 20.2
GOLDMAN: “.. We expect the next few inflation reports to be softer and have therefore stuck with our forecast of cuts in July and November, but even moderate upside surprises could delay cuts further. .. We continue to think that rate hikes are quite unlikely because there are no…
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. We've seen a strong aggregate earnings surprise thus far during reporting season (9% for the S&P 500; highest since 2021). Price reactions have been more muted .. fits with our view that the market continues to be discerning when it comes to operational…
CAPITAL ONE CEO: ".. the U.S. consumer remains a source of strength .. labor market remains strikingly resilient. Rising incomes have kept consumer debt servicing burdens relatively low by historical standards. And when we look at our customers, we see that they have higher bank…
FUNDSTRAT: “.. Two weeks ago, we noted that equities were about to face a ‘fragility test’ given the dual risks of fears of inflation resurgence + Middle East conflict .. but ultimately we expected stocks to survive this test. As we exit April, the rally of the past week has…
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. Our Cloud Capex Tracker now points to an even more robust 44% Y/Y growth in 2024 following earnings reports from $META, $MSFT and $GOOGL (vs. +26% Y/Y prior) .. the strongest Cloud Capex ‘supercycle’ since 2018.” [Woodring] #CapexArmsRace 🇺🇸
Atlanta Fed: 3.9% Goldman: 3.5% #GDP 🇺🇸
GS: We launched our Q2 GDP tracking at 3.5%, reflecting strong consumer spending momentum and favorable inventory arithmetic following a miss in Q1.
when you've lost Citi ..
Citigroup Revises Fed Call To 100bp Of Cuts This Year From July
YARDENI: “.. retiring Baby Boomers are likely the reason that the personal saving rate is falling; they’re depressing the rate as they spend their retirement funds and no longer have earnings to save. In addition, they are spending at a record pace on labor-intensive services…
“.. Paramount has begun planning for what would happen if no deal materializes. In recent days, top Paramount divisional heads presented a plan to cut more than $2 billion in costs ..” @WSJ @jtoonkel $PARA wsj.com/business/media…