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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

Holger Zschäpitz is market maniac @Welt and Author of 'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addiction to debt. Pics: https://t.co/0T7FGGZvLQ welt.de/autor/holger-z… Berlin, Germany Joined May 2009
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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

6 minutes ago

Good Morning from #Germany where the state is getting bigger & bigger. Govt spending on personnel & administration is rising steadily. In 2016, 256k people were employed in federal administration; this figure has now increased to 298k. Since traffic light coalition govt took…

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

18 hours ago

Hawkish Fed repricing extends: Traders push back the timing of the 1st Fed rate cut to Nov/Dec after hotter than expected Q1 Core PCE.

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

18 hours ago

OOPS, stagflationary numbers out of US! US economy expands at 1.6% rate in Q1, trailing all forecasts. Main growth engine – personal spending – rose at a slower-than-forecast 2.5% pace. BUT a closely watched measure of underlying inflation advanced at a greater-than-expected 3.7%…

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

20 hours ago

To put things into perspective: 55% of S&P 500 Is considered “AI,” SRP has calculated: virtually all of tech sector is represented w/Communications & Health Care having next largest shares. What’s more interesting is that consumer staples & energy have ZERO exposure in “AI”…

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

21 hours ago

Good Morning from #Germany, where consumer sentiment is better than it has been for 2yrs. The GfK consumer climate index has risen to -24.2 points in May, the 3rd increase in a row, driven mainly by higher real wages. However, the level of the GfK index is still very subdued &…

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

a day ago

Europeans ‘less hard-working’ than Americans, says Norway oil fund boss. Nicolai Tangen finds US investments more attractive due to weaker regulations and more risk-taking: “There’s a mindset issue in terms of acceptance of mistakes and risks. You go bust in America, you get…

Holger Zschaepitz retweeted
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DER AKTIONÄR @aktionaer

2 days ago

Bernd Förtsch, der nicht nur unseren AKTIONÄR groß gemacht hat, sondern auch den Onlinebroker flatexDEGIRO gründete, war jetzt zu Gast bei Holger Zschäpitz im Podcast der @welt . "Eine Legende packt aus - exklusive Learnings aus 40 Jahren Börse". Hören Sie rein. Es lohnt sich. ⤵️…

Holger Zschaepitz retweeted
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Leon Müller @LeonTMueller

2 days ago

Spannend und unterhaltsam zugleich: in der heutigen Ausgabe von „Deffner & Zschäpitz“ war @aktionaer- und @flatexDEGIRO-Gründer Bernd @Foertsch zu Gast, urlaubsbedingt ohne Deffner, aber natürlich mit @Schuldensuehner. Titel: „Eine Legende packt aus - exklusive Learnings aus 40…

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

2 days ago

Good Morning from Germany where business sentiment continues to brighten. Ifo business-climate index rose for a 3rd month to 89.4 in April from 87.9 in March, beating consensus expectations of 88.8 mainly thx to the service sector. Manufacturing & construction components are less…

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

3 days ago

Good Morning from where the economy has returned to growth. German Composite PMI Index moved back to >50 growth threshold in Apr for 1st time in 10mths, driven by a buoyant services sector. At 50.5, up from 47.7 in Mar, it signaled a modest expansion rate in private-sector…

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

4 days ago

Good Morning from #Germany, where 10y Bund yields have risen to 2.52%. The yield was still well below 2% at the end of December. But the entire yield curve has moved upwards, becoming a brake on the German construction industry.

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

5 days ago

Hey guys, make sure to catch my weekly newsletter 'What did I learn this week.' I discuss lessons of Bitcoin Halving, GenZ, who are used to not having to take action themselves but who demand debt from other people, & where yield pain point is for stocks. linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

5 days ago

Good Morning from #Germany, which is against taking on more common EU debt. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that EU member states should take responsibility for their own finances. Lindner is trying to shut down discussion of another joint borrowing initiative as…

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

5 days ago

To put things into perspective: In the US, the risk-free yield is now higher than the risky stock market yield. 10y US yields have jumped to 4.62 this week while S&P 500 earnings yield (1/PE ratio) trades at 4.21%.

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

6 days ago

An exciting stat from Goldman: Just 10y ago, the collective market cap of the Mag 7 was $1.5tn. Today, that stands at $13.5tn.

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

6 days ago

With markets moving to price out future rate cuts (rate cuts of less than 40bps are priced in until the end of the year), the US Treasury curve continues to shift higher. (via SRP)

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

6 days ago

Good Morning from #Germany, where inflation expectations have recently risen significantly. The markets are pricing in 2.15% over a 10y horizon, which is not far off the ECB's inflation target of 2%, but he markets obviously expecting ECB to cut rates in case of doubt, even if…

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

6 days ago

S&P raised #Greece’s credit outlook to positive from stable, just mths after rating agency upped country to investment grade, a status lost in 2010. Greece’s rating was affirmed at BBB-. Debt ratio is seen declining to 152.3% of GDP in 2024 from a high of 206% in 2020. (via BBG)

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

6 days ago

US equity valuations are still high relative to the macro environment, Goldman says. Measured by gap between actual Shiller cyclically-adj S&P 500 P/E ratio and the “macro-consistent” Shiller P/E predicted by Goldman macro model of equity valuations, US stocks are 40% overvalued.

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

6 days ago

OUCH! Nasdaq 100 fared worst weekly drop since Nov 2022 as US 10y yields pushed >4.6%.

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