The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps
Dealer positioning insight https://t.co/7EQK4aovAt • White paper now available • Options, vol, market analysis • Morning briefings • Disclaimer: https://t.co/TfWPx8wnhb wizofops.com United States Joined November 2017-
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Good Morning! What initially looked like a sharp down day for markets recovered partially at the end of the day. We reached that downside target of 5000 much quicker than I thought. The range between 4975 and 5100 should hold until opex unless something fundamental shakes us from…
Eek! I was so busy watching ice melt, I forgot to post this link for our theta chat! youtube.com/watch?v=oe6mqj…
Good Morning! Yesterday we saw a premarket advance get subjected to whipsaw. $SPX traversed close to 5100 but started to reverse. 5100 was my vol crunch high level for the week, and it appears that the vol crunch is over since yesterday was normally vixed. So the short-term…
Good Morning! A continued vol crunch rally that is close to reaching this 5100 $SPX vanna target. We rose fairly quickly, which gets realized vols to perk up a little bit. I'd argue that IV is now underpriced based on RV, but unless it barely moves if we cross 5100, it is not…
Good Morning! A massive vol crunch produced a decent bounce. As I said yesterday, this can continue this week, especially with the numerous tech earnings. 5100 $SPX is the highest I would expect this bounce to go over this week, although better-than-expected earnings can propel…
Good Morning! Friday had a few gateways to the downside and had periodic pops, but ultimately closed near the lows. The selloff had just as weak breadth as the advance, with mostly semiconductor stocks feeling to pain. The pops I was projecting was short term, which I consider…
As a followup, last night's drop and V-shaped recovery ushered in a lot of End-of-day option traffic. As a result, we have a rangebound market likely between 4975 to 5025 $SPX.
As a followup, last night's drop and V-shaped recovery ushered in a lot of End-of-day option traffic. As a result, we have a rangebound market likely between 4975 to 5025 $SPX.
Good Morning! A calm, mostly flat futures... WHOA! An overnight scare of war escalation between Israel and Iran created a selloff but was abated as Iran played it down and Israel got their retribution. Israel and Iran now know where they stand with ineffective drone and…
Hey all, join @Farkus5000, @myTradeHawk, and me as we continue our series on Greek basics. Today we talk about gamma. Here's the link! youtube.com/watch?v=mEsk2x…
Good Morning! Another premarket gap up and closing red. IV declined considerably yesterday as well. Because of the behavior of IV during this drop, I don't believe this is anything more than a vixperation-style vol crunch that might presage a short-term rally after opex. I'm not…
Good Morning! Yesterday was a neutral and low-vol 0DTE paradigm whose bounds were respected all day long. That was not on my bingo card. However, one development that was not great for bulls was the relatively muted day that ended marginally red was associated with a vol crush.…
Good Morning! Another selloff day as a morning vol crunch gave away gradually to another down day, this time properly vixed. $SPX stopped exactly on the max vanna point, which is this is where we hang out for the rest of opex is a decent place for a bottom in the short term.…
Good Morning! Friday was a fairly large selloff attributed to geopolitical concerns. I have my doubts because gold and bonds initially had small rallies, but pulled back while equities didn't. Friday was also associated with strong overvixing, which usually resolved on the same…
Postmortem, 5140 was hit, small bounce.... but then puts continually got bought throughout the day on all tenors. In fact, option volume was 30% higher in all the most liquid equities/ETFs/indices, and there was a greater than average percentage of puts. Today was one of those…
Postmortem, 5140 was hit, small bounce.... but then puts continually got bought throughout the day on all tenors. In fact, option volume was 30% higher in all the most liquid equities/ETFs/indices, and there was a greater than average percentage of puts. Today was one of those…
As a followup.... puts have been bought below 5140. We will likely see a late-morning bottom at 5150 or a little lower, then see a reversal. It won't be a major reversal, but back to 5160-5170 area. #volland
As a followup.... puts have been bought below 5140. We will likely see a late-morning bottom at 5150 or a little lower, then see a reversal. It won't be a major reversal, but back to 5160-5170 area. #volland
Good Morning! Yesterday was another day for 0DTE volatility, and we got it. Oddly, a small 30Y UST auction that wasn't the greatest by bond auction metrics (meh bid-to-call ratio, etc) was a catalyst to break from the 5150 pin, and back to the strong 5200 strike. These pins are…
Good Morning! Well, we expected whipsaw and constantly evolving $SPX 0DTE paradigms, and that's exactly what we got. A lot to talk about, and I'm told no one has an attention span anymore, so let's quickly hit all the topics. #CPI came in hot, which I wasn't expecting. With a…
Good Morning! In a rare celestial event, we are experiencing an eclipse of FOMC Minutes by CPI. Normally FOMC minutes unnecessarily get a lot of press, but CPI takes over today, and rightly so. Options are pricing a very significant event vol for today with a 0DTE straddle being…
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@WizOfOps This daily brief provides a great macro view of the market. It would also be interesting to see some insights into the short-term timeframe as well, similar to what you previously included with ODTE and weekly expected moves from market dealers.
Officially hit +770% trailing 3 months Thank you to all the value add accounts on Twitter 🙏🏻 A few : @PradeepBonde @ABTradess @ZeeContrarian1 @MRBullMktEver @FLGatorTrader @LadeBackk @blakestonks @Bluedeerc @FLOWrensics_ @kulturdesken @WizOfOps @Qullamaggie
@WizOfOps @OptionsDepth This is a great chat and topic- I’ll pick it up after close, I would love to evolve these ideas 🍻
@WizOfOps CBOE EOD Open/Close summary dataset via @OptionsDepth
Definitely on the same page. Then throw in a little geopolitics
Good Morning! What started as a JPow-fueled premarket rally gave way to downside pressure. This was once again in a bullish 0DTE paradigm. However what wasn't expected was again we saw low volumes, falling below 40m options traded again. It fell 19% short of the average options…
@WizOfOps Uhhh you mean second mortgage my house* and buy puts right?
@WizOfOps I like the way you state the macro issues and then explain the consequences and interdependencies in plain English. Thank you.
I scraped 1000 tweets from @WizOfOps and trained an LLM model on that ( cause I don't get it! ); Here are some of the interesting ones:
Uranium - @piterloskot82 Housing - @rev_cap Shipping - @ed_fin Coal - @mfwarder Macro - @MacrostratPB Oil - @WarrenPies Mining - @respeculator Lucid Dreams - @goodalexander Options (Aggregate) - @WizOfOps Construction - @EdZarenski
@WizOfOps its what you don't plan for that gets you
@GarrettDrinon @xyrotrades @smbcapital You should check out @WizOfOps 's Volland too.
@WizOfOps My grade 1 teacher was named Pat Enis. I shit you not
@satymahajan @WizOfOps with Volland. He'll show you with finger puppets if you need him to. @jaredhstocks seems to have a good grasp of interpreting the Greeks and @gherkinit at Pi-fi is one of the most well rounded with Greeks and market commentary (he's a centaur)
@WizOfOps Widening bid ask = “This is the fair price of the option, but I’m not all that confident fair value won’t change soon.”
🔴 AL ARABIYA CORRESPONDENT: ISRAELI WARPLANES FLY OVER BEIRUT AND TRIPOLI.
@WizOfOps To the extent there’s a longer term trend in OpenPnl, that’s more likely to drive their spread pricing than volatility levels. Or they might just drop product all together if it’s got negative expected value from order flow..
@WizOfOps From my experience, most dealers don’t think in terms of unrealized Pnl. Dealers have “OpenPnl” and “Day Trading”. The former is the change from yesterday, and the latter is marks on today’s action. The goal is to have positive day trading and OpenPnl that’s a wash long term
4900+ ✅ Remaining core longs exited and puts entered..... Amazing that a level posted at 4100-4200 from Oct seems to be meaningful We swing from one end of the distribution back to the other. Rinse and repeat
$SPX Projected Dec OPEX close from 4150 into Oct lows: 4725 Actual 12/15 (dec OPEX) High: 4725 Close: 4720 *A gain of 600 points in 6 weeks 2024 Q1 ATH ✅ 2024 Q1 4900 👀
@WizOfOps Visualized, this is the 10 day skew curve today (orange) compared to the start of the year. Notably it's mostly this short tenor, by 30 days out the curves look identical.
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