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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. https://t.co/9Pn7wGwMzp fidelity.com Boston Joined December 2014
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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a day ago

Interest rates matter, especially rising rates when the stocks/bonds correlation is positive. So far, the 10-year yield has once again risen to the stock market’s “uncle” point, and this has happened without a rise in the term premium. The last time bond yields caused stocks to…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a day ago

In my view, the stock market remains in both a cyclical and secular bull market. Based on the median cyclical bull market (which has produced a 90% rally over 30 months), we are only in the 4th or 5th inning, but compared to the shorter bull markets that were produced during the…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

2 days ago

In my view, the Fed would be forced to consider additional rate hikes if the inflation data accelerate AND if inflation expectations become unanchored. Signs of the latter would come from the TIPS break-evens, which have so far remained quite stable. /END

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

2 days ago

Will we go from talking about rate cuts to talking about further rate hikes? It’s not my base case, but it happened after that 1966-68 soft landing. /6

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

2 days ago

Despite the Fed’s many rate hikes and $1.5 trillion in balance sheet reduction, the liquidity profile in the market remains robust. The forefront in that equation has been the drawdown in reverse repo program (RRP), which is down to a cycle low of $397 billion. /5

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

2 days ago

That suggests that the current policy rate may not be as restrictive as we’re used to seeing at past cycle extremes (when they would reach 200-300 bps above the neutral rate). Perhaps the Fed is only 50-100 bps above neutral? If so, that leaves a lot less room for a pivot. /4

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

2 days ago

In my mind the combination of sticky inflation and economic resilience further raises the question of whether the neutral rate is really as low as the Fed and the market have thought it is, and by extension whether the Fed is as really restrictive as is commonly assumed.🧵

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

2 days ago

Following the sticky March CPI report, the market has now unpivoted close to 100 bps since the start of the year. The 2-year yield, which is a good proxy for where the market thinks the Fed will be in two years, has swung from 4.15% in January to 5.0% today. Remarkable, but…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

4 days ago

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index is back below the all-time high set in March, and the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average is down to 37% (from 85%). Not quite at an oversold extreme.

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