The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets. Email us: [email protected] thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe United States Joined June 2015-
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Markets This Month: 1. $META beats earnings expectations, stock down 10% 2. $TSLA misses earnings expectations, stock up 10% 3. Markets price-out 4 rate cuts, gold hits all time high 4. Gold hits all time high, bond prices hit 6-month low 5. Geopolitical tensions worsen,…
TSLA Roadmap: (1) the top chart is my prediction for TSLA, which was posted to SUBS on Feb. 17, 2024. (2) the lower chart is the updated chart by April 20th--see the yellow-highlighted price movement. (3) most interestingly, I also mapped a large rebound from the low at $140.
Asset managers are more bullish of US stocks than any level seen over the last decade. US equity futures positioning by asset managers is now over 2 standard deviations ABOVE its historical average. This is even higher than levels seen just before the pandemic downturn. Asset…
BREAKING: US Subprime auto loan delinquency rates are now set to cross above 4% and stand at 2008 levels. The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans is now ~3.9%, doubling in just 3 years. Since 2021, subprime and prime auto loan delinquencies have moved in a…
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See the turning window & THE RED ARROW (The future has dropped 30+ points after META & IBM's earnings)--two Biggies--MSFT & GOOG to show their hands after tmrw's market close
Notable Earnings Next Week: (1) from current chart setting, see a negative reaction to $TSLA, but more positive for $MSFT & $GOOG; (2) Also noteworthy is the potential turning window for April 25--want to know why? Check my scroll for detailed discussion. thekobeissiletter.com/panda
Markets This Month: 1. $META beats earnings expectations, stock down 10% 2. $TSLA misses earnings expectations, stock up 10% 3. Markets price-out 4 rate cuts, gold hits all time high 4. Gold hits all time high, bond prices hit 6-month low 5. Geopolitical tensions worsen,…
Tomorrow we will receive the first GDP reading for 2024: It also happens to mark the most volatile quarter in over a year with inflation on the rise and geopolitical tensions worsening. Prediction markets currently expect 2.7% GDP growth to be reported, according to @Kalshi.…
MPW Mid-Week Update Posted: (1) a large rebound continues, after SPX hitting the 4953 low last Friday. (2) So far, the major indexes followed my mid- to long-term roadmap very well--I updated the final target of this bearish leg. (3) check it out at thekobeissiletter.com/panda
The day $PYPL hits $70. I will quit X for a week. Mark it. Timestamp it. Screenshot it.
TSLA Roadmap: (1) the top chart is my prediction for TSLA, which was posted to SUBS on Feb. 17, 2024. (2) the lower chart is the updated chart by April 20th--see the yellow-highlighted price movement. (3) most interestingly, I also mapped a large rebound from the low at $140.
@KobeissiLetter And this is just after the Nasdaq Index was down in 6 out of 7 last weeks Remarkable resilience. This, in turn, creates a lot of opportunities.👇 open.techwriters.info/globalmarketsi…
@KobeissiLetter A 144% jump in just 3 years is insane. It's mind-blowing to think we're now paying over a trillion dollars annually just in interest on the national debt.
Average interest rate on federal debt held by the public was just 2.5% in 2023. The low point of the yield curve currently is the 10-year bond, yielding 4.6%. Imagine the potential for the chart in the post. Source: CBO
Interest on US Federal debt is out of control: The annual interest expense on US debt is literally moving in a straight line higher, now at $1.1 TRILLION. To put this in perspective, less than 3 years ago the annual interest expense on this debt was $450 billion. That's a 144%…
5073-5080: (1) the rebound reached a higher target at 5076, which is right at the Fib level from two previous highs at 5211 & 5265. (2) if this level is overcome today or tmrw--which I think it won't, then the mid-term bearish view is in doubt. (3) took some short position here.
5056 HIT: (1) This is the previous w-4 high, and a strong resistance for the rebound; (2) this zone--as noted below--should cap the current rally for a day or two. (3) as illustrated many times & outlined in the roadmap, THIS rally from 4952 is still best counted as a rebound.
In recent decades, even though the national debt was growing fast, interest rates were gradually going down. Therefore the interest payments on the national debt never really grew that fast. That all changed in 2022. Debt continued the grow and interest rates exploded. A huge…
Interest on US Federal debt is out of control: The annual interest expense on US debt is literally moving in a straight line higher, now at $1.1 TRILLION. To put this in perspective, less than 3 years ago the annual interest expense on this debt was $450 billion. That's a 144%…
Interest on US Federal debt is out of control: The annual interest expense on US debt is literally moving in a straight line higher, now at $1.1 TRILLION. To put this in perspective, less than 3 years ago the annual interest expense on this debt was $450 billion. That's a 144%…
Gold has been experiencing one of the best performances in history. It is up by more than 12% year to date while the S&P 500 rose by only 5%. Over the last five years, it has returned ~84% versus the S&P 500 gain of 71%. Will the phenomenal run in gold continue? 🧵1/9
Our clients were notified of this well in advance and took longs in $SPX on Friday. These longs are now up +80 points and continue to push higher. Subscribe to our premium service at the link below to access our real time trades: thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe
@KobeissiLetter US technology stock prices are almost 2x larger relative to the S&P 500, the most ever. Even more than during the dot-com bubble. However, how their valuations look like? Are the US tech stocks in a bubble again? The full analysis is below👇 open.techwriters.info/globalmarketsi…
5056 HIT: (1) This is the previous w-4 high, and a strong resistance for the rebound; (2) this zone--as noted below--should cap the current rally for a day or two. (3) as illustrated many times & outlined in the roadmap, THIS rally from 4952 is still best counted as a rebound.
Rebound Range: (1) all MPW Bamboo Scroll subs received this 5-min chart, in addition to the typical 30-min, 2hr, & daily update twice per week. (2) the blue roadmap was drawn & posted last Saturday. I envisioned a zigzag rebound to eventually hit 5060 zone. Very accurate so far.