Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha
Professional insights for an options dominated world. Gamma Exposure, Volatility, Market Breadth, Macro. Now Exclusively Distributed through @Hedgeye tier1alpha.com San Francisco Joined August 2021-
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Market cap distortion is in full effect, as $NVDA, $GOOGL, $MSFT, and $AMZN are accounting for more than 55% of the bullish momentum in the $SPX. Aside from these heavyweight companies, market breadth remains neutral, showing only a marginal bias towards the upside.
No surprises here, but $SPX intraday volatility was through the roof today—the highest we've seen in over a year.
$SPY breadth. Not a good sign for bulls when $AAPl is the largest positive impact and has been bearish for months. @t1alpha
Just a brief reminder that the reduction in "PEADS" (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift" is one of the academic metrics used to show increased market efficiency. I prefer to just note that META can post a huge beat or a huge miss... and then it behaves just like the market (with…
Just a brief reminder that the reduction in "PEADS" (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift" is one of the academic metrics used to show increased market efficiency. I prefer to just note that META can post a huge beat or a huge miss... and then it behaves just like the market (with… https://t.co/AclXcsgza7
It's quite rare for $SPX to be negative for more than six days in a row. Over the past 30 years, a longer streak has only occurred seven times, with the last stretch taking place in 2020.
Yesterday, $RSP gained 0.38% while $SPY lost 0.87%, marking the largest divergence since January 2021. Not surprising considering $NVDA alone accounted for over 25% of the move in $SPY, but it’s still another clear example of how distorted the market has become.
Yet another OpEx week where it would have paid to stay on the sidelines. $SPX -3% from last Friday.
Interesting $SPX breadth profile today. 68% of the index is in the green, but it's still not enough to balance out the weakness in tech. Overall, $NVDA, $META, $AMZN, $MSFT, and $AAPL are responsible for over 40% of the bearish momentum. Market cap distortion at its finest!
42% of the $SPX reports next week!
42% of the $SPX reports next week!
CTAs have sold off an estimated $20B in equities since Monday, but the selling flows from Vol control funds and Risk parity strategies have been much less aggressive. That leaves a lot of potential deleveraging risk on the table if volatility increases from here. $SPX $VIX
For all the money flowing into derivative income funds over the past few years, relative performance has been pretty mixed. These funds have seen roughly $40B in inflow since 2023.
17% of today's move in $SPX was driven solely by $NVDA 👀
17% of today's move in $SPX was driven solely by $NVDA 👀
The 3-month correlation between $SPX and its equal-weight counterpart ( $EWI ) is still trading near a 25-year low. If you're still not convinced that index concentration has distorted the markets, think again.
$SPX breadth has just collapsed over the past couple of days. Currently, only 30% of the index is still trading higher than their respective 50-day moving averages, a 15%ile level over the past decade. Generational buying opportunity? Or more downside to come?
We’re excited to see everyone there!
April OpEx this Friday: $1.25T in $SPX/ $SPY notional open interest set to expire/ rollover.
Michael Green @profplum99
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Tornado watch issued for Omaha, Nebraska, with large tornado on the ground in Lincoln
Freedman Does It Again! Long Alphabet $GOOGL After nailing the short side on Meta Platforms $META, Communications analyst Andrew Freedman @HedgeyeComm recapped his timely long call on Alphabet $GOOGL, in today’s edition of The Call @ Hedgeye. Yesterday, the company released a…
We got some winners, some losers, and a boatload of cash. "Slowly, slowly catchy monkey" It all feels like "that's it" "stupid bears missed the dip again" possibly. $SPX above momentum. Let's see. Have a great weekend everyone!
$SPX $SPY "Slowly, slowly catchy monkey" Things are bubbling but unlike my rushed title, it rarely pays to rush portfolio decisions. Have a good weekend everyone.
We've had a 25% unrealized gains tax this whole time
Was momentum just seasonality all along? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
I suppose if bonds rally on this you could say the whisper was getting hot, but still hard to imagine yields slipping too far on this. Seems like the type of number that doesn't have to kill a stock rally but also might put a lid on it. Higher stocks go, odds rise bonds fade.
Umich inflation expectations come in hotter than expected for final reading. 3.2% for 1 year, 3% for 5-10 years. Yes, its a crappy survey. Yes, its only 600 people. But the Fed has said they watch it and so it's harder to make the argument that inflation expectations are well…
All we did was buy/cover on red yesterday (covered 1/2 my Shorts in Real-Time Alerts) "Yesterday marked a 12-month high in our intraday volatility model. In case you missed it, the S&P 500 was down by 1.6% early in the trading session but managed to stage an impressive comeback,…
tons of higher beta tech names building hourly bases and hold support... I think we are not out of the woods yet completly, but this is a good start. Will not get long on the gap up torm. but if we pull back, defensives loose a bit of stength and tech puts in more relative…
Exactly. Window of Weakness Meets Earnings Disappointment. Exactly when Fed Swaps no longer fully price in rate cuts before December!
Fuck this dude has to be on savant level low key write a book my man this is of higher quality of @FedGuy12 (no offense) Central Banking 101 book and I loved that book but god damn
A new centrally cleared era in repo markets is looming, which will cause an exodus from its shadowy yet most systemic regions. This may increase resiliency but also inhibit key trades gluing U.S. Treasury markets together. The Repo Leverage Squeeze™ is here... 1/
A weedy, potential explanation about the hotter than expect ed core PCE inflation implied by the gdp print today: pce deflator weights uses a Fisher Ideal index formula, vs cpi uses Laspeyres weighting. Why does that matter? So the PCE inflation uses moving weights, so if the…
My favorite corner in Santa Cruz
One week from now on May 2, @Hedgeye LIVE kicks off at the Hyatt Regency Greenwich. We can't wait to welcome #HedgeyeNation back to Connecticut! Our friends @SimplifyAsstMgt are sending their portfolio managers @profplum99 & @Mike_Taylor1972. On Saturday morning May 4, the Mike…
Dumb tweet. Freedman was Bullish on $META for that entire run and went bearish on Monday
@Hedgeye @HedgeyeComm @KeithMcCullough bet he missed out on the 130% over the last year though. I didn't.
LOL... you'll be happy to know that the largest stocks are "the least passively owned" This is mechanically absurd, but one of the reasons the academic paper, "Double What You Think," by Marco Sammon is so important. Counting up passive by adding ETFs and Mutual Funds, while…
BOOM: S&P 500 stocks with lower passive ownership have beaten the most passively owned stocks over varying time horizons = just one amazing finding/chart from @psarofagis new explosive study that disproves much of the Passive fearmongering out there.
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