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People are just way too calm with this being the PCE backdrop Comps are about to get harder, not easier The Fed can only ignore reality so long. They are running out of leash.
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) remained at 2.8% in March, above expectations for a decline to 2.7%. Overall PCE rose to 2.7% (expectations: 2.6%), highest reading since last October. Any remaining chance of June rate cut is gone after this report.
And then there is core services ex housing which has also been accelerating.
A lot of people have argued elevated inflation is just because of housing and housing is lagged/inappropriate. But even excluding housing recent inflation is highly elevated (annual rates): 1 month: 3.6% 3 months: 4.2% 6 months: 2.4% 12 months: 2.2%
Almost any way you slice it, inflation has been re-accelerating over the past three months.
Almost any way you slice it, inflation has been re-accelerating over the past three months.
They revised mostly January (and February) UP (January if you remember was a terrible print) so March (I suppose also subject to future potential revisions) looks less worse. But that’s really besides the point. JPOW did a dovish pivot on the eve of a terrible quarterly Core…
They revised mostly January (and February) UP (January if you remember was a terrible print) so March (I suppose also subject to future potential revisions) looks less worse. But that’s really besides the point. JPOW did a dovish pivot on the eve of a terrible quarterly Core…
PCE Measure of Shelter Slows Slightly to 5.8% YoY in March calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/pce-me…
PCE, core PCE and Supercore PCE
🇺🇸US March Core PCE Inflation 3M/6M Growth 📈3M Annualized Growth 4.4% (prev. 3.7%) ➖6M Annualized Growth 3.0% (prev. 3.0%) ➖YoY 2.8% (prev. 2.8%) 🔗Customize the chart: en.macromicro.me/toolbox/chart-…
Also not heading in right direction: “supercore” PCE #inflation +0.39% month/month in March, taking year/year rate back up to +3.5%
🚨🇺🇸US March Core PCE Inflation in Line with Expectations Following Yesterday’s Q1 Data Release 📈PCE YoY 2.7% (est. 2.7%, prev. 2.5%) ➖Core PCE YoY 2.8% (est. 2.8%, prev. 2.8%) ➖PCE MoM 0.3% (est. 0.4%, prev. 0.3%) ➖Core PCE MoM 0.3% (est. 0.3%, prev. 0.3%) 📍More Info:…
This is clearly not heading in the right direction: 3-month annualized change in core PCE #inflation up to +4.4% in March
Personal Income increased 0.5% in March; Spending increased 0.8% calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/person…
The core PCE price index rose 0.32% in March and was up 2.8% from a year earlier January's gain of 0.45% was revised to a gain of 0.50%. The 6-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation held steady at 3% in March The 3-month rate was 4.4%, up from 3.7% in February
March PCE #inflation +2.7% year/year vs. +2.6%% est. & +2.5% in prior month … core +2.8% vs. +2.7% est. & +2.8% prior
We created a daily-updating index that tracks aggregate LTM revenue growth for all global public companies, weighted by USD revenue 1-year ago. The growth slowdown is quite striking...
@profplum99 All local FX
Core PCE price index component of GDP accelerated sharply in 1Q2024 to +3.7%
AIA: "Architecture firm billings retreat further in March"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 20th Consecutive Month calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/aia-ar…
Geopolitical risk is rising globally as the Peace Dividend may have come to an end.
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It's a great weekend when it starts with @TheChartReport highlighting your chart on Friday evening. Thanks a lot, @Pdunuwila. Keep bringing the 🔥 every day.
Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @FrankCappelleri Click here to read more! thechartreport.com/cotd-04-26-24/ $XLC
$SPX is reporting Y/Y earnings growth of 3.5% for Q1 2024, which is above the estimate of 3.4% on March 31. #earnings, #earningsinsight, bit.ly/3QhGUp2
Video: Why the yen is so weak and what's next forexlive.com/news/video-why…
Even our friend Paulo here knows this is shitinomics… That says a lot about the standards of those advising Trump on these matters (sanctions, taking back Fed independence, cutting taxes,..)
Missed this. Even by Trump standards, this has to be the worst policy idea I’ve ever seen bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Pending home sale prices pushing to all time highs, up over 6%, at current rates. This is at 7.5% mortgage rates. People bearish on prices are way way too early unless the Fed takes the 10 year to 5.5%
Everyone keeps saying “this isn’t like the 70s” Actually the central issue of inflation stickiness — a shortage of housing & demographics of family formation — are in fact identical to the 70s More OER and housing data upside surprises ahead. The same as every quarter I guess
@EconstratPB I would disagree on this. I have written about OER upside surprises for months and I don’t see a path to it changing You have to account for how low housing supply is, current demographics of household formation, and now immigration The data isn’t going to slow enough
@EconstratPB I would disagree on this. I have written about OER upside surprises for months and I don’t see a path to it changing You have to account for how low housing supply is, current demographics of household formation, and now immigration The data isn’t going to slow enough
MacroCharts Research is LIVE! Report #1 will be up soon – with a FULL review of Global Markets. Subscribers will get an email as soon as the publication is up. Markets are getting interesting! THANK YOU for all the support – have a great weekend! 🔗research.macrocharts.com
All the central banks pivoted too early in false hope of beating inflation. Many now reversing it. Australia starting process The December pivot & 1Q23 easing were such massive mistakes. But let them make the mistake. Now live with the consequences. Rest of year gonna be tough
My base case is hiking rates in 4Q because we are going to exit the year at >3% core PCE Maybe one transient cut mid year but will be reversed. The inflation data is just too hot This could be fixed if stocks would go down or if the government would stop spending
🇫🇷 Moody's and Fitch keep #France's ratings unchanged - Le Monde lemonde.fr/en/politics/ar…
🇩🇪 #Germany’s Economy Shows Signs of Life But Industry Is Struggling - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇨🇳 #China Industrial Profits Drop as Demand From Overseas Stalls - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇺🇸 #SPX | S&P 500 Reporting Higher Net Profit Margin Quarter-Over-Quarter for Q1 - Factset advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/…
🇺🇸 #WallStreet Humbled as Fast-Reversing Markets Confound the Pros - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Because 2023 was an up year for stocks, investors have more capital gains to pay taxes on, resulting in bigger checks going to the IRS in April. That is why bank deposits have fallen, as the IRS cashes those checks. And the drop in bank assets also flowed through into the stock…
Massive deposit flight from banks caused a major cash drain in the week of Tax Day; on a seasonally-adjusted basis, it was the biggest deposit drop since week after 9/11 attacks; small banks in particular need to find a way to build up cash relative to deposits:
Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @FrankCappelleri Click here to read more! thechartreport.com/cotd-04-26-24/ $XLC
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