Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
Technical Analyst - Editor of The McClellan Market Report. Trying to figure out stock market physics, and to leave my campsite cleaner than how I found it. mcoscillator.com Joined February 2010-
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Because 2023 was an up year for stocks, investors have more capital gains to pay taxes on, resulting in bigger checks going to the IRS in April. That is why bank deposits have fallen, as the IRS cashes those checks. And the drop in bank assets also flowed through into the stock…
Because 2023 was an up year for stocks, investors have more capital gains to pay taxes on, resulting in bigger checks going to the IRS in April. That is why bank deposits have fallen, as the IRS cashes those checks. And the drop in bank assets also flowed through into the stock… https://t.co/s7hdb0IPdD
@McClellanOsc Angering people in the economics profession is a good thing because they do so much damage.
I have noticed that there is an inverse relationship between how supportive people are of this idea and how close they live to the North Cascades.
I have noticed that there is an inverse relationship between how supportive people are of this idea and how close they live to the North Cascades.
My latest Chart In Focus article, "Inflation Rising Right On Schedule", is posted at mcoscillator.com/learning_cente…. It is going to anger a lot of people in the economics profession.
College Station, Texas has daily temperature data that stretches back to 1882 (with coherent data since 1910 or so), so I'm not sure why you decided to cherry-pick 1950 as the starting date on your x-axis. 🍒 Why were overnight lows also warm during the 1920s and 1930s? What…
College Station, Texas has daily temperature data that stretches back to 1882 (with coherent data since 1910 or so), so I'm not sure why you decided to cherry-pick 1950 as the starting date on your x-axis. 🍒 Why were overnight lows also warm during the 1920s and 1930s? What… https://t.co/hHZTNlZHRV
The rooftop solar industry is teetering on the verge of collapse. SunPower, one of the largest US solar companies, said it will wind down its residential installation service & stop direct sales. It plans to cut ~1,000 out of ~3,800 total employees.
Is the motor scooter now considered an “armoired vehicle”?
Is the motor scooter now considered an “armoired vehicle”?
I'm not an EWT practitioner, but see mcoscillator.com/learning_cente… for how climate data relate to things that actually matter. Spoiler: Cooler is worse.
I'm not an EWT practitioner, but see mcoscillator.com/learning_cente… for how climate data relate to things that actually matter. Spoiler: Cooler is worse.
Name calling gets us nowhere. If there was some flaw in what I said, you assuredly would have pointed it out. But you couldn't, so all you have is insults. Blocked.
Name calling gets us nowhere. If there was some flaw in what I said, you assuredly would have pointed it out. But you couldn't, so all you have is insults. Blocked.
Holy $#!*... The quarterly census of employment and wages shows a DROP of 192k private sector jobs in Q3 last year after BLS said nonfarm payrolls rose 640k over that same time! Note that unlike the monthly job estimates, the quarterly census covers more than 95% of US jobs:
The 2-year T-Note yield does a far better job than the Taylor Rule of telling us what the the Fed is going to do (eventually). We would all be better off if the Fed would listen to that message sooner.
The 2-year T-Note yield does a far better job than the Taylor Rule of telling us what the the Fed is going to do (eventually). We would all be better off if the Fed would listen to that message sooner. https://t.co/0uiQTxc9j6
Who wore it better?
Who wore it better? https://t.co/lih89FRedX
Would this be the same head of lettuce that outlasted Liz Truss?
Would this be the same head of lettuce that outlasted Liz Truss?
Here is one way to see that. Chart shows the Nasdaq Composite, weekly, with a Percentage Price Oscillator set to measure percentage deviation from a 40-week MA. I drew a line at -10, just as an arbitrary value. The PPO can obviously go deeper than that.
Here is one way to see that. Chart shows the Nasdaq Composite, weekly, with a Percentage Price Oscillator set to measure percentage deviation from a 40-week MA. I drew a line at -10, just as an arbitrary value. The PPO can obviously go deeper than that. https://t.co/2d1WbQf6wL
In 1938, my Dad, Eric, a Jew, was barred from entering Univ. of Vienna, where he studied chemistry & physics. In 2024, @ShaiDavidai, a Jew, is barred from entering @Columbia, where he’s on the faculty. The more things change, the more they stay the same… SHAME! SHAME! SHAME!
The price of anything is in units of Money/StuffUnit. If the number of houses stays constant (it doesn't, but hang with me), and the supply of money increases exponentially, then the Money/Stuff ratio has to adjust. So M2 would be a better metric for this comparison than rates.
The price of anything is in units of Money/StuffUnit. If the number of houses stays constant (it doesn't, but hang with me), and the supply of money increases exponentially, then the Money/Stuff ratio has to adjust. So M2 would be a better metric for this comparison than rates. https://t.co/F53I8d1o5i
Breadth on Tuesday is helping, already big enough to get the NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator up above zero, if we close with these numbers. See the Oscillator chart each day, plus important calculation values, at mcoscillator.com/market_breadth….
Breadth on Tuesday is helping, already big enough to get the NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator up above zero, if we close with these numbers. See the Oscillator chart each day, plus important calculation values, at mcoscillator.com/market_breadth….
First, C&H is a stock price pattern. Other markets have different chart personalities. So if you are going to transplant C&H into gold, you should satisfy yourself that gold has had them in the past, and that they have worked. Second, C&H is a shorter term duration phenomenon…
First, C&H is a stock price pattern. Other markets have different chart personalities. So if you are going to transplant C&H into gold, you should satisfy yourself that gold has had them in the past, and that they have worked. Second, C&H is a shorter term duration phenomenon…
Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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DALE K @DaleLovett2
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222K Followers 584 Following I write a daily column for https://t.co/fJn7HoZLAq on the markets. Worked at Cowen, GS, Cargill. Former Asian Expat: S'pore & Shanghai. Tennis fan. Love to cook.
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30K Followers 5K Following I post interesting news and opinion stories, for @scottadamssays and for you. Posting a story does not imply that I agree with it.
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@McClellanOsc Being on the other side of a trade from professional economists is usually a pretty good position
Big move from failed move? $MSFT
Who knew hot chocolate was actually a commodity pairs trade?
Sugar fell to its lowest price since January 2023
This evening's garage band name - "The Customer's Yacht" - comes from the C-suite of Jefferies. Paging Michael McDonald and Christopher Cross.
Jefferies boss unloads $65mn in stock to buy a customer’s yacht on.ft.com/4dfsxLG
Where are the customer's yachts?
Jefferies CEO Just Sold $65 Million of Company Stock. He’s Buying a Yacht. on.barrons.com/44h3hR9
Right here. 👇
@ChrisMartzWX Show us the research that said the Arctic will be ice free 11 years ago. Good luck.
If the light is reflected away (making Venus appear bright) that energy is obviously not heating Venus' atmosphere.
@TonyClimate Anyone that has looked at Venus through a telescope knows that what they see is a bright white ball. Venus is the 2nd brightest celestial body in our night sky when it is up. So relatively little radiation reaches it's surface, but instead heats it's atmosphere.
Dedicated to the non-native English speakers: Discussing a column today, I told my editor @nicole90t that a situation looked like a “guacamole” (the 🥑 recipe). Lots of explanation — and some bemusement — later, it seems I meant to say a “whac-a-mole” (the game). 😳🫣🤓🙃
@McClellanOsc I could be wrong, but in my short 26 years as a professional trader, I am fine being wrong.
you can save your way out of bad investing habits, but you cannot invest your way out of bad savings habits.
@MegaWattXinfo Right, because one flood one time in one location conclusively proves that fossil fuels are bad … that's totally legit. … Laurent, if you seriously think that's "science", I pity you. w.
@JonathanLiles1 If you mouseover them, you can drag them by the top left corner.
Super Micro Computer $SMCI was down 23% today. The chart shows it increased 6x from January to March ($200 to $1200). Then, on March 18, S&P added it to the S&P 500. $SMCI peaked on March 13 and is now down 40%. --- Congratulations to the S&P Index Committee!
Fascinating, to me anyway. "If you want to know what future federal tax collections are going to look like, just look at what the stock market has done over the past 12 months. and the level of tax collections also affects how the stock market does." 🎩@McClellanOsc…
It's helpful to invert this to better align with overbought/oversold conditions in stocks. And it has a loooooooooong way to go to get to pre-bubble extremes. It's currently only average relative to the past 60 years.
The equity risk premium on the S&P 500--the gap between the earnings yield and that of 10-year Treasurys--has hit a 22 year low
The National Weather Service computer systems and network have just been added to the billion dollar disasters list for 2024.
@McClellanOsc Record day for TGA taxes x.com/dharmatrade/st…
Over $180B in taxes flowed into the TGA yesterday. As far as I can tell, this is a single day record in the data going back to 2005.
Just change the baseline to 1950 instead of 1850-1900 or "pre-industrial" Problem solved.
At the annual @ColumbiaUEnergy annual conference in New York, the moderator asks for a show of hands about whether limiting climate change to 1.5 C is realistic anymore. In an audience of ~250 people, I saw a couple of hands up. Maybe three. #GlobalEnergySummit
No you can't "solve it with batteries" - Batteries only provide a tiny percentage of California electricity because they are expensive and there isn't enough battery material available to supply the EV industry, much less power the state. The concept of scale completely evades…
@TonyClimate During the night you need less power, and you can solve it with batteries.
@contessabrewer Rather wear? If so, me? you? Rather look at?
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