Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos
Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal • Author, "Trillion Dollar Triage” nicktimiraos.com Joined July 2009-
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Would Fed chair Jay Powell leave his term early? Here's what he said in 2019 when the threat of forced removal was in the air: “It doesn’t occur to me in the slightest there would be any situation in which I would not complete my term other than dying.” wsj.com/economy/centra…
Several people who have spoken with Trump about the Fed said he wants someone in charge of the central bank who will, in effect, treat him as an ex officio member of the central bank’s rate-setting committee. @AndrewRestuccia @learyreports wsj.com/economy/centra…
The cumulative effect of serial disappointments on inflation are reshaping the outlook for rate cuts. “I always say, one month is no months, but three months—that’s at least one real month." wsj.com/economy/centra…
The U.S. fertility rate fell to 1.62 births per woman in 2023, a 2% decline from the year before. It is the lowest rate recorded since the government began tracking it in the 1930s. wsj.com/us-news/americ…
Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who is in custody on espionage charges, makes a heart-shaped gesture behind a glass wall of an enclosure for defendants as he attends a court hearing in Moscow, Russia, April 23, 2024. REUTERS/Tatyana Makeyeva
New rules will aim to require banks to preposition collateral at the Fed’s discount window. The proposal could require larger banks to be ready to borrow the equivalent of a significant portion of their uninsured deposits, perhaps around 40% wsj.com/finance/regula…
"Are we there yet? Are we there yet?" The highway offramp isn't as close as the markets or the Fed anticipated, and now the interest-rate road trip will last longer. W/@kate_linebaugh to break down the latest developments for the economy and Fed. 🎧 wsj.com/podcasts/the-j…
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777K Followers 88 Following President of the @ecb, the central bank for the euro. I manage this account with my team.@jasonfurman Think it is more complicated Jason. Europe performed better on EPOP and for sure US can learn from this. But reallocation of labor in the US vs lack of reallocation in Europe resulted in new and better matches, higher productivity and higher wages.
I think the key question right now is whether the labor market and consumption are still slowing. If so, all the benign soft landing scenarios are likely delayed rather than denied. If not the outlook becomes a lot more challenging without any easy short-term policy fixes.
Let's not miss the broader context that has brought us to this place: (1) Trump is part of a larger populist backlash and (2) the growing politicization of the Fed. Both have made this outcome possible. Trump, in part, can be seen as an endogenous response to these developments.
Several people who have spoken with Trump about the Fed said he wants someone in charge of the central bank who will, in effect, treat him as an ex officio member of the central bank’s rate-setting committee. @AndrewRestuccia @learyreports wsj.com/economy/centra…
Countries that have experimented with political "consultation" on monetary policy have experienced prolonged periods of inflation. The most recent example is Turkey, whose inflation rate is currently 68 percent - the result of politics driving Turkey's monetary policy decisions.
The quarterly core PCE data point to an underlying trend right now in the high-2s. The monthly data suggest something a touch firmer--3%. Given the head fake we got on the downside in 2023, not confident in a reacceleration story yet, but inflation progress is slowing. /1
Low 3M inflation in 2023 H2 gave a false signal of where trend was. Likewise, *for now* we should take the firm Q1 with a grain of salt. A simple YY, or a more sophisticated approach that filters out typical noise, yield similar answers: 2.8-2.9%, so ~ 2 1/2-3% w/ upward bias.
Part, not all, of the story with the slowdown in YY core inflation is that imputed prices--e.g. for some financial services--have accelerated in recent months & are beginning to weigh on the YY. These reflect market movements rather than actual prices observed by consumers. /2
@conorsen The last time consumption ran this strong on a two month basis, we also saw an increase in the saving rate. By contrast, the saving rate has declined by roughly a full percentage point over the last two months. Would not assume this persists.
Honestly, Trump is doing us a service by clearly stating that central bank independence is a myth
Several people who have spoken with Trump about the Fed said he wants someone in charge of the central bank who will, in effect, treat him as an ex officio member of the central bank’s rate-setting committee. @AndrewRestuccia @learyreports wsj.com/economy/centra…
Last week: we’ll use tariffs to prevent countries from buying dollars. This week: we’ll use tariffs to make countries keep buying dollars.
NEW: Trump’s economic advisers are considering ways to actively stop nations from shifting away from using the dollar, sources tell me, @nancook + @JenniferJJacobs Penalties being discussed: export controls, currency manipulation charges and tariffs bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Recent data is much more consistent with “inflationary boom” than “stagflation” (Yes I know there nuances w/some inflation components)
It is my night!
Several people who have spoken with Trump about the Fed said he wants someone in charge of the central bank who will, in effect, treat him as an ex officio member of the central bank’s rate-setting committee. @AndrewRestuccia @learyreports wsj.com/economy/centra…
Wage growth drives services inflation, which is what the Fed cares most about. Wage growth is going down, not up. This ain’t 2021.
Inflation by all measures picked up and moved in wrong direction. Inflation likely slowed less than measured in the fourth quarter and accelerate less than reported in the first quarter. Splitting the difference leaves inflation still too hot. That is not the final nail in the…
Financial imputations are part of the Q1 inflation story--vanilla core PCE ran 64bps hotter than market-based core in Q1 SAAR. It's one reason to weight Y-Y a bit more right now, which is 2.9% core and 2 3/4% market-based core as of Q1. Above target but lower than quarterly.
One possible explanation: if the market rally earlier this year boosted financial services fees by more than previously estimated, that could account for some of the increase. Market-based prices in the core PCE deflator were lower in Q1, at 3.1%.
Don't get excited about the possibility of a Fed rate cut, investors - you're tying your own noose!
Funny how the market's excitement about a rate cut makes it less likely to happen because of the pass-through from stock prices to financial services inflation
Adding to this, most of the cyclical/interest rate-sensitive industries have activity levels running below normal with stabilizing trends, so the risk to growth is arguably higher rather than lower. x.com/bobeunlimited/…
If underlying real demand is running around 2-3% and nominal demand is 5-6% there is no reason why there will be a meaningful deterioration in the labor markets. Slowing that demand requires substantially higher rates and much lower asset prices from current levels.
There were a number of people dismissive of the March CPI miss as "only 0.1pp". But looking back over the last few month there have been serial misses. And annual rates are what matters. 2.1% is mission accomplished but 3.7% is a flashing red warning.
I believe inflation is in the 2.5 to 3% range but am shifting more towards the top of that range. And regardless, yet another reminder we need very wide confidence intervals. But right now my rough probability is: Inflation too high (> 3%): 40% Inflation too low (< 1.5%): 5%
roughly a year later and i still think about this @ModeledBehavior tweet time to time. has some bearing on our politics
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