MacroMicro @MacroMicroMe
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🇺🇸The US Treasury has announced the 2024 Q2/Q3 Marketable Borrowing Estimates. 📈Q2 debt issuance is projected to be $243 billion, slightly higher than the previous estimate of $202 billion. 📈Q3 issuance is expected to be $847 billion. #MM
⚠️🇺🇸US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April came in at 97, below the expected 104 and the previous value of 104.7. This marks the lowest level since July 2022. #MM 🔗en.macromicro.me/collections/3/…
🇺🇸The first quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) exceeded expectations, with a 1.2% growth compared to the projected 1.0%. On a year-over-year basis, compensation costs have increased by 4.2%, showing improvement from last year but no change from the previous quarter.…
⚠️April US Chicago PMI unexpectedly declined to 37.9, reaching a new low since November 2022. 🔗Data: en.macromicro.me/series/380/chi… #MM
🇺🇸The New York Fed Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation dropped to 2.6% in March (previously 2.7%). 📉This implies that the risk of underlying inflation momentum reacceleration is still low. #MM 🔗Data: en.macromicro.me/series/29681/u…
🇨🇳China NBS Manufacturing Index Eases Slightly 📉Manufacturing PMI 50.4 (est. 50.3, prev. 50.8) 📉Services PMI 51.2 (est.52.2, prev. 53.0) 📉Composite PMI 51.7 (prev. 52.7) 🔗en.macromicro.me/collections/25… #MM
Average cost to mine #bitcoin still remains high ($105,718/BTC). The normalisation of fees is now knocking out the inefficient miners as global hashrate is declining (now in the 500s EH range). I recall a recent conference where many of my peer $BTC mining executives were…
Most commodity futures continue their rise, with 77% trading above the 50-day MA, reaching the highest level since July 2023. 🔗Data: en.macromicro.me/series/32301/c… #MM
🇯🇵USD/JPY Implied Volatility Index surges to a 12-month high after last week's #BoJ meeting. The Japanese government is highly likely to have intervened earlier today to prevent yen depreciation. #MM $JPY 🔗Data: buff.ly/4aWRlGU
⚠️🇯🇵USD/JPY tumbles more than 70 bp to 158 as volatility continues. The pair undergoes rapid fluctuations, pushing it lower for the day. It briefly exceeded 160 earlier. #MM $JPY
💴 🇯🇵Large speculators have driven net-short exposure (COT index) in $JPY futures to its most bearish level since 2007. #MM 🔗en.macromicro.me/cot-flow
⚠️Japanese Yen Breaks 160 Level Intraday #MM
🇺🇸US March Core PCE Inflation 3M/6M Growth 📈3M Annualized Growth 4.4% (prev. 3.7%) ➖6M Annualized Growth 3.0% (prev. 3.0%) ➖YoY 2.8% (prev. 2.8%) 🔗Customize the chart: en.macromicro.me/toolbox/chart-…
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Average cost to mine #bitcoin now at $102,093 per $BTC. Higher fees may be saving some of these high cost producers, but for how long? $GRYP mined at a cost of $18,200/btc in 2023 (implied $36,400 post halving) en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/b…
確かに、日米金利差と為替レートが相関してるかっていうとあんまりはっきりしない感じだなあ。 en.macromicro.me/collections/59…
Average cost to mine #bitcoin still remains high ($105,718/BTC). The normalisation of fees is now knocking out the inefficient miners as global hashrate is declining (now in the 500s EH range). I recall a recent conference where many of my peer $BTC mining executives were…
⚠️Tokyo's inflation dropped to 1.8% from 2.6%, far below the expected 2.6%. Excluding food and energy, it slowed to 1.8% from 2.9%, the lowest since Sep 2022. Tokyo's data often predicts national trends, with Japan's CPI due in three weeks. Despite the $JPY's weakness, the #BOJ…
lol "BOJ Governor Ueda still sees limited impact from yen weakness on trend inflation"
This is a notable miss. Expectations were for Q1 core PCE at 3.4%. After the March CPI and PPI, Wall Street forecasters were expecting core PCE rose around 0.27% in March, which would have implied a 2.7% 12-month increase.
The core PCE price index rose at an annual rate of 3.7% during the first quarter, and was up 2.9% from the year-earlier quarter
Market pushes rate cut expectations down to one this year.
@MacroMicroMe Good govt spen is down and investment up. Strong dollar hurt exports and the high import level was the main reason GDP reading was lower
@MacroMicroMe It’s an impossible choice for Japan. Banks with over 17 years of negative yielding JGBs in their balance sheets. Even a 1% rate hike could crush their value.
Good chart below
Read our #EconomicBulletin to learn how HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX) can be broken down into contributions from energy-sensitive and wage-sensitive items ecb.europa.eu/press/economic…
Another great read: x.com/bullionstar/st…
Chinese Have "Grabbed Gold By The Throat" As Capital Flight Accelerates: zerohedge.com/commodities/ch… @zerohedge $GLD $XAUUSD
“The BoJ is trapped” in one chart. Japan is experiencing increasing inflation expectations alongside a continuous devaluation of the yen, exhibiting an almost perfectly negative correlation. This reflects the dilemma of an economy burdened by excessive debt, necessitating…
At the end of 1Q24, Bloomberg ranked me as "Top Forecaster" for: 🥇 🇺🇸 Economy *I got the 2nd place for 🥈 🇨🇳 Economy
🔔Bitcoin Mining Costs Spike to $102K Bitcoin production costs @ $102,093 are causing miner profitability. As Cambridge University data shows, a current cost-to-price ratio of 1.57 and a 30-day average of 0.81 influence miner activity; fewer miners operate when costs > profits.
This week, I'm going to try and spend a lot of time on some platforms that are new to me, so I can test them out to understand their value. 1. Ortex.com @ORTEX - Real Time data, like LIVE Short Interest and more. 2. en.macromicro.me @MacroMicroMe - All…
Short interest on #Tesla $TSLA hasn't been this high in at least 18 months. <-- This usually doesn't turn out very well for the shorts. 😋
China is much closer to Japan in terms of debt/GDP than people think. BRICS currency anyone? Chart @RealAlpineMacro
Trends for United States
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