Rev Cap @rev_cap
Cyclicals Investor. Anon for now. A lot on Housing, Fed Policy, and the Business Cycle Joined September 2021-
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When every data point shows that you were wrong, what do you do? Clearly the optimal response is to question the viability of the data Can someone remind me what stage of the rehabilitation process DENIAL is?
When every data point shows that you were wrong, what do you do? Clearly the optimal response is to question the viability of the data Can someone remind me what stage of the rehabilitation process DENIAL is?
+16% in a week Didn’t buy. Did add to $GOOG though
+16% in a week Didn’t buy. Did add to $GOOG though
I can’t remember a time in 2012-2017 that we had to make up reasons to argue inflation wasn’t as it was reported The data was just obvious. And people accepted it The data today is also obvious: obviously too hot. But people refuse to accept it. I really don’t understand.
I can’t remember a time in 2012-2017 that we had to make up reasons to argue inflation wasn’t as it was reported The data was just obvious. And people accepted it The data today is also obvious: obviously too hot. But people refuse to accept it. I really don’t understand.
People are just way too calm with this being the PCE backdrop Comps are about to get harder, not easier The Fed can only ignore reality so long. They are running out of leash.
For those not close to housing, this is what’s happening in the market When consumers know that the Fed is focused on keeping asset prices at all time highs & that they will eventually get bailed out, rates just dont matter that much The Fed has neutered itself, maybe by design
For those not close to housing, this is what’s happening in the market When consumers know that the Fed is focused on keeping asset prices at all time highs & that they will eventually get bailed out, rates just dont matter that much The Fed has neutered itself, maybe by design
It was v exhilarating but my Bitcoin journey ended with the inflation data this month Amazing LT asset class. R/R probably more balanced here after consolidation But it’s ultimately the tip of the risk on spear. And this Fed may need to lean against risk assets into summer
It was v exhilarating but my Bitcoin journey ended with the inflation data this month Amazing LT asset class. R/R probably more balanced here after consolidation But it’s ultimately the tip of the risk on spear. And this Fed may need to lean against risk assets into summer
Great piece here by Conor. He continues to put out great work on housing. And I agree with the main idea here But my pushback is we could get housing demand down if the Fed ever pushed stocks lower or hit a real neutral rate, which is ~5.5-6.0% on the 10 yr They just won’t
Great piece here by Conor. He continues to put out great work on housing. And I agree with the main idea here But my pushback is we could get housing demand down if the Fed ever pushed stocks lower or hit a real neutral rate, which is ~5.5-6.0% on the 10 yr They just won’t
The block is hot! Home sellers feeling good. Listing prices for homes up 6.7% Y/Y. Their agents are telling them rates are coming down. Stocks ripping. Go for top dollar Clearing prices lower bc affordability so bad but still up 5.2% The Fed has botched this so bad it’s unreal
Great chart. But all I see is easy comps Growth about to come in hot!
Great chart. But all I see is easy comps Growth about to come in hot!
Updated data on how broke NYC is despite insanely high tax rates The level of special interest rent seeking is without parallel As Federal positions to raise taxes, it’s going to get really tight in NYC, particularly if bonds (and eventually PE) weigh on pension returns
Running immigration at 4-5x pre Covid pace stresses the country in new ways, but it’s a way other than recession to avoid a wage-price spiral The Fed & Yellen know. Immigration is the ace in the hole when inflation is above target for >4 years It keeps slack in labor market
Running immigration at 4-5x pre Covid pace stresses the country in new ways, but it’s a way other than recession to avoid a wage-price spiral The Fed & Yellen know. Immigration is the ace in the hole when inflation is above target for >4 years It keeps slack in labor market
EU defense stocks loving this energy
Kind of a funny moment Best people I know in DC close to Dem leadership know Biden can’t make it more than another year or two Gameplan is win with him bc no one else in party stands a chance. They’re too left, lack star power. Kamala takes over in 1-2 years in
Kind of a funny moment Best people I know in DC close to Dem leadership know Biden can’t make it more than another year or two Gameplan is win with him bc no one else in party stands a chance. They’re too left, lack star power. Kamala takes over in 1-2 years in
One of the most mispriced stocks out there
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I can't think of a single instance where oversharing has benefited me.
Julia Roberts in Notting Hill
This the first quarter that FIX is liquid enough (~$100M/day) for pods to trade Cue the irrational 1-day reaction
this bank has been priced for bankruptcy for nearly a year lmfao stop with the dooming everybody this has been clear for months. Powell isn't about to pivot cause of this
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Republic First Bank officially collapses and seized by regulators. Banking Crisis II begins… 👀
The Yen is basically doing what $TLT did last year on the weekly TA etc etc.
The weekly RSI divergence is by far one of my most favorite TA setups in macro. Not perfect but and takes a long time to develop etc but I often put much more weight on it than any real time narratives etc. $TLT
@rev_cap @PaulSantucci1 @RMDiLillo Appreciate the feedback. FWIW, the highest March after one of the lowest Jan is not a good signal, imho. We’ll have to wait and see, but I’m seeing “shadow” inventory rising
“The sound that you hear is a narrative cracking.” Economists are rejecting the “immaculate disinflation” idea since the disinflation piece isn’t really happening right now. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Aging well.
I hate being on the other side as Bob bc I’ll prob get my ass handed to me, but here goes: No recession in 2024.
The best overall interview I've done recently was this one from a few weeks ago. Fiscal dominance, capital controls, and open money: youtube.com/watch?v=DnpczZ…
Closed exactly on the 50% retrace of the April sell off. More fun and games next week.
that SP500 isnt already in a mania up move is testimony to how effective the Fed propaganda machine has been. if this was pre-Volcker we would be already at 7000 in SP500 and a 8% US Treasury 10 year.
She’s a 10, but thinks the Fed isn’t politically motivated and won’t cut this year
Copper jumps to highest price since April 2022 👀
For those not close to housing, this is what’s happening in the market When consumers know that the Fed is focused on keeping asset prices at all time highs & that they will eventually get bailed out, rates just dont matter that much The Fed has neutered itself, maybe by design
USDJPY trading like the Bank of Japan is run by the Atlanta Falcons front office.
Trends for United States
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