Viraj Patel @VPatelFX
FX & Global Macro Strategist by day | 90s R&B & Hip-Hop DJ by night | Views here are my own | @VandaResearch London, England Joined November 2016-
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FWIW this doesn't look like "active" intervention (you'd get a 3-4 big fig move at least). But wouldn't be surprised if BoJ are "checking prices"...
FWIW this doesn't look like "active" intervention (you'd get a 3-4 big fig move at least). But wouldn't be surprised if BoJ are "checking prices"...
The MoF/BoJ cavalries are coming to save $JPY
On $JPY - the problem with intervention is that once the genie is out of the bottle… it’s hard to put it back in. We’re at a stage where MoF/BoJ have no choice but to intervene. The best way would be for BoJ to hike 25bps this week. It’s not about the macro anymore (BoJ…
*BI SEES 25 BPS FED FUND RATE CUT IN DEC. IN BASELINE SCENARIO Even EM central bankers are more hawkish on Fed policy than Powell 😂 $USD
UK PMI: Overall increase in output charges during April was the slowest seen since February 2021. This was driven by another fall in prices charged inflation across the service economy If seen in next UK CPI... expect hefty drop in core CPI & multiple BoE cuts this summer $GBP
⚠️ One of these central banks will be cutting last. My guess is the one where 6M annualised core CPI is running close to 4%. After this week's UK & Canada inflation data, 6M core is near 2.5%. It's near 2% in EZ. BoE, BoC & ECB can all cut before Fed (& more just than once) $USD
⚠️ UK core CPI hotter-than-expected (4.2% YoY vs. 4.1% exp). Rules out a May BoE cut. But under the hood things were weaker (trimmed mean CPI soft). Upside driven by just a few things (housing costs & phone apps). Still on track for several BoE cuts starting June $GBP
⚠️ UK unemployment jumps to 4.2% from 3.9%. That is the biggest monthly uptick since the pandemic. Pipeline weakness coming through given March PAYE jobs change was -67k. Sticky wages (led by few sectors + PAYE points to softer pay in Mar). Weak jobs a big worry for BoE $GBP
Geopolitical risks at highest in 2 decades outside one-off events $USD
Elevated US inflation, Fed to cut after its G10 peers (or not at all), weaker risk environment, rising geopolitical risks, looming trade (tariff) risks, uncrowded positioning… this is not the time to be short $USD
Bernanke’s 1st recommendation to BoE to improve its process… “update your software” 🤷♂️
Even Trichet wants to cut rates… that’s how behind the curve the ECB is $EUR
⚠️ Today’s ECB meeting should be a pivotal moment where market’s begin to confidently see ECB & Fed policy as being independent. 6M EZ core CPI is annualising near 2%. US core is 4%. Lagarde has no choice but to ignore the Fed & flag cuts are coming. Diverging rates = weaker $EUR
One interesting development from today… fear of BoJ/MoF intervention has made the Swiss franc the preferred funding currency of choice on rising US yields day. Different to recent years where JPY would be the biggest loser $JPY $CHF
US core CPI +0.359% MoM "It was seasonal" is the new "it was transitory" $USD
Agree. No indication of the market being “short” bonds here like they were in Q4 ‘22 or Q4 ‘23. In fact, flows have been supportive of “buy the Powell dip” and knife catching. Momentum shorts have room to run on hotter CPI prints $USD
Agree. No indication of the market being “short” bonds here like they were in Q4 ‘22 or Q4 ‘23. In fact, flows have been supportive of “buy the Powell dip” and knife catching. Momentum shorts have room to run on hotter CPI prints $USD
Yellen draining liquidity
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The main man isn't even online... 🤷♂️
Very much agree with @VPatelFX's take on the Yen situation. This aside, our fundamental fair value model of the Yen also suggests that the air is getting thinner.
On $JPY - the problem with intervention is that once the genie is out of the bottle… it’s hard to put it back in. We’re at a stage where MoF/BoJ have no choice but to intervene. The best way would be for BoJ to hike 25bps this week. It’s not about the macro anymore (BoJ…
There are many problems with this q1 GDP release. Chief of all, 1.6% is pretty low, certainly vs all the sanguine expectations fueled by US exceptionalism fantasies. But that’s the least of it’s issues. Inventories and trade are dragging it down, so it’s all boiling down to…
This here 💯 - while market is trying to second guess Fed hike odds, it’s BoJ that should and might well shock
On $JPY - the problem with intervention is that once the genie is out of the bottle… it’s hard to put it back in. We’re at a stage where MoF/BoJ have no choice but to intervene. The best way would be for BoJ to hike 25bps this week. It’s not about the macro anymore (BoJ…
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