E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. @RealEJAntoni
@Heritage & @Comm4Prosperity economist, @VinceCoglianese Show & @Richzeoli Show in-house economist; I may be wrong, but it’s highly unlikely; VAMO heritage.org/staff/ej-antoni Washington, DC Joined January 2023-
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Powell & Co. aren't gonna like this... Employment costs jumped 1.2% in Q1, highest in a year - remember that the Fed wants to see this number tank b/c they believe the solution to inflation is for you to not have any money, so you can't spend:
Always a pleasure joining the incomparable @LizMacDonaldFOX on @EveningEdit, this time discussing the Biden admin's proposed tax hikes, inflation, skyrocketing interest on the debt, bond markets, and more:
W/ Treasury's estimated $850 billion in debt issuance for Q3, we'll hit $35.45 trillion by end of Sep - assuming nothing goes wrong btwn now and then to exacerbate the spending/borrowing problem and push the debt even higher...
RRPs broke above $500 billion today - is this another sign of the facility flatlining at this level after the big drop on Tax Day? Or is it the typical end-of-month spike, to be followed by another plunge on Wednesday?
Treasury expects to borrow $243 billion this quarter and $847 billion in Q3, at which point we'll be back to borrowing nearly $1 trillion every 100 days:
Gold "has rocketed up 51% since the start of 2020. That raises two questions: What’s behind the rise and where does gold go from here?"
Gold "has rocketed up 51% since the start of 2020. That raises two questions: What’s behind the rise and where does gold go from here?"
When growth gets cut in half and inflation doubles from the previous quarter, I'd say that's good reason for people to start talking "stagflation" again...
When growth gets cut in half and inflation doubles from the previous quarter, I'd say that's good reason for people to start talking "stagflation" again...
DAL Fed: manufacturing still contracting despite small uptick in production; new orders fell for 22nd of 23 months; costs for wages and benefits are skyrocketing, despite a decline in the number of manhours worked in Apr; comments from participants were overwhelmingly negative:
@DavidSacks They’re trying to block the voters from changing Ukraine policy dailycaller.com/2024/04/25/tru…
Another great article by the @Fxhedgers team, this one is on gold - it explains (in plain English) what's behind the rally and how high they think it'll go. You can read it here: fxhedgers.com/p/good-as-gold…
Great chart of annualized inflation: "we've arrived at 3%+ w/ no indication we're going significantly lower anytime soon, not w/ current levels of Treasury borrowing and Fed allowing money supply growth" My bet: #HFLUR Higher-For-Longer-Until-Recession
Great chart of annualized inflation: "we've arrived at 3%+ w/ no indication we're going significantly lower anytime soon, not w/ current levels of Treasury borrowing and Fed allowing money supply growth" My bet: #HFLUR Higher-For-Longer-Until-Recession
Always a pleasure joining @DavidAsmanfox on @FoxBusiness, this time discussing stagflation, the Fed, and more: "The Fed is not politically independent, they are not data dependent..."
Not a good sign when small banks balance sheets are already 30% CRE and that share has been slowly growing over the last month after only briefly dropping:
Cash at small banks clearly tumbled hard last week, whether using the seasonal adjustment or not; a decline is normal w/ Tax Day but this was extreme, and it closely mirrors the huge increase in the Treasury's General Account at the NY Fed:
Last week's cash drop wasn't just another seasonal adjustment fluke - the portion of small banks balance sheets in cash is getting smaller and is at dangerously low levels as soon as the emergency loans from the Fed are removed, a process which began last month:
Massive deposit flight from banks caused a major cash drain in the week of Tax Day; on a seasonally-adjusted basis, it was the biggest deposit drop since week after 9/11 attacks; small banks in particular need to find a way to build up cash relative to deposits:
2 months later, and RRPs are flat - the drain won't resume until Treasury blows through its extra $150 billion in cash on hand:
Phil Kerpen @kerpen
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The demand for gold is only going higher. Good As Gold, The truth behind gold’s rise and how high its price will go. The latest article from @Fxhedgers fxhedgers.com/p/good-as-gold Subscribe, it's worth it.
"The Only Safe Asset" - Chinese Consumers Overtake India In Gold-Buying Frenzy zerohedge.com/commodities/on…
.@RepJamesComer @RepRWilliams @GreggJarrett @MarkSimoneNY @bobnardelli @RealEJAntoni @wjmcgurn @KayleeDMcGhee Joining us tonight on The Evening Edit 5PM ET/2PM PT on @FoxBusiness with @LizMacDonaldFOX . Be sure to tune in!
Good As Gold, The truth behind gold’s rise and how high its price will go. The latest article from @Fxhedgers fxhedgers.com/p/good-as-gold Subscribe, it's worth it.
"$20 Minimum Wage Backfires as Restaurants See Orders Plummet” Who could have possibly seen it coming 🤔 “DoorDash said the company experienced 300,000 fewer orders within Seattle in the past three months, likely related to the city's minimum wage guidelines and how they…
But they’ll get it from you via inflation. One way or another, you are paying for their incompetence and outrageous spending.
Let’s be clear: If you make under $400,000 a year, you won’t pay a penny more in taxes under our administration.
@RealEJAntoni @DavidAsmanfox @FoxBusiness Heard you on Bongino last week, great stuff
Don’t miss my SUNDAY SPECIAL with Speaker Mike Johnson, Sen. Mike Lee, Julie Kelly & more. Listen here. 👇🏻 rumble.com/v4rwjdb-sunday…
Great chart of annualized inflation: "we've arrived at 3%+ w/ no indication we're going significantly lower anytime soon, not w/ current levels of Treasury borrowing and Fed allowing money supply growth" My bet: #HFLUR Higher-For-Longer-Until-Recession
There was never any indication we were heading to the 2.0% inflation target, let alone pre-pandemic 1.8% average; we've arrived at 3%+ w/ no indication we're going significantly lower anytime soon, not w/ current levels of Treasury borrowing and Fed allowing money supply growth:
@Rothmus Yes, inflation causes prices to rise, but not value, so it amplifies the capital gains tax. This applies to everyone who owns a house. Even if your house value is the same when adjusted for inflation, you will still pay a capital gains tax even when there is not a true gain.
“We’re seeing some inflation but I personally believe this represents transitory factors.” -- Janet Yellen, June 2021
Median home sale price just hit a new record high of $384k, even w/ mortgage rates marching higher, and we're still 2 months away from the seasonal peak - buckle up:
WSJ comes round to exactly what I've been saying for months: Rising inflation means the Fed ain't cutting anything. Their next move could even be a hike. "The Dream of Fed Rate Cuts Is Slipping Away" wsj.com/economy/centra…
@RealEJAntoni Bet on Yellen running the TGA down in this election year. She has lost all credibility as a serious economist as Treasury secretary. She is a hired hand with one client now. Too bad.
Not to mention the Fed made it clear they have plans to force discount window usage.
W/o the BTFP, use of the discount window is slowly climbing, though certainly not at anything resembling crisis levels; still, this is likely a sign of things to come:
@RealEJAntoni Not to mention the Fed made it clear they intend to force discount window usage.
The Russia sanctions are a dumpster fire that can’t be put out
Abandoning sacrosanct nature of the dollar to virtue signal against Russia is turning into an unmitigated disaster: as US moves to illegally confiscate (steal) Russian assets, Russia is returning the favor, w/ JP Morgan in the crosshairs and more to come: zerohedge.com/markets/russia…
So what was the $61 billion for?
Goldbugs have known for years how easy it is to lose their non-fiat assets in an unfortunate boating accident.
Get ready to be a criminal if you self custody crypto. It’s coming.
🔥🎯
It takes tremendous humility (and, dare I say, grace) to acknowledge that you cannot organize society better than the seemingly chaotic masses of people exercising their free will.
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