Frederik Ducrozet @fwred
Head of Macroeconomic Research, Pictet Wealth Management @PictetGroup. ECB Watcher. All opinions mine. Switzerland Joined April 2009-
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As you all know, I’m typically very pro-EU/EZ, but there is something epically funny about an EU Commission led by a CDU pol accusing China of engaging in insufficient fiscal stimulus to spur local demand and relying too much on exports to spur recovery from a financial crisis.
🇺🇸 US core PCE up +0.317% in March on the back of modest upward revisions to Jan-Feb numbers. Less bad than feared post Q1 print, but still not good. Hawkish Fed hold likely next week, waiting for the one trillion dollar question on rate hikes.
Of course, the timing looks just perfect for a debate over a Treaty change. 😬
🇫🇷 First time in 3 years that more French companies are reporting demand issues than supply issues.
🇫🇷 First time in 3 years that more French companies are reporting demand issues than supply issues.
🇪🇺 @EmmanuelMacron: "Our Europe could die, and this only depends on our choices."
Ironic because in Berlin many think von der Leyen is too French in her thinking. So the theory is: too German for Paris, too French for Berlin, and they end up unseating her for an Italian? Aha This could also just be Macron showing his teeth to extract concessions from UvdL.
Ironic because in Berlin many think von der Leyen is too French in her thinking. So the theory is: too German for Paris, too French for Berlin, and they end up unseating her for an Italian? Aha This could also just be Macron showing his teeth to extract concessions from UvdL.
🇪🇺 The ECB was the dovish outlier at the IMF meetings in DC, but apparently still not enough. 😅 *ECB CUTS THIS YEAR COULD EXCEED 100 BPS: CENTENO TO ECONOSTREAM
🇨🇭The SNB raises minimum reserve requirement for banks from 2.5% to 4%. "Since sight deposits which are held by banks to meet minimum reserve requirements are not remunerated, the interest costs for the SNB will be reduced". snb.ch/en/publication…
⚠️ UK core CPI hotter-than-expected (4.2% YoY vs. 4.1% exp). Rules out a May BoE cut. But under the hood things were weaker (trimmed mean CPI soft). Upside driven by just a few things (housing costs & phone apps). Still on track for several BoE cuts starting June $GBP
“Mario Draghi: Radical Change Is What Is Needed” Speech at the High-level Conference on the European Pillar of Social Rights, 16 April 2024, via @GEG_org geopolitique.eu/en/2024/04/16/…
🇪🇺 Three forward-looking wage metrics from Philip Lane's speech, all pointing to further (gradual, bumpy) easing ahead: ECB/Indeed trackers; Corporate Telephone Survey (CTS); Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
Christophe Barraud�.. @C_Barraud
183K Followers 342 Following CEO and Sales Manager at Market Securities Monaco SAM | Chief Economist | PhD | Bloomberg 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 "Top Forecaster" for several years | RT ≠ endorsement
JohannesBorgen @jeuasommenulle
47K Followers 2K Following Le poids d'un oiseau qui s'y pose suffit à déplacer la terre. The weight of a bird landing on it is enough to move the Earth
Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
97K Followers 953 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1
169K Followers 388 Following Robert Solow Professor of economics emeritus, MIT Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon
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Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰.. @jnordvig
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47K Followers 2K Following Le poids d'un oiseau qui s'y pose suffit à déplacer la terre. The weight of a bird landing on it is enough to move the Earth
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ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent
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59K Followers 2K Following PhD Economist, Founder+CEO @ExanteData & @MarketReaderInc Formerly: MD at Goldman, Head of Research at Nomura & Bridgewater. #1 Ranked by Institutional Investor
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18K Followers 459 Following Rates strategist | Patriot | Feminist | Allergic to hypocrisy. Follow me for some cheap tricks & cheesy one-liners! Whack follol de rah!
Isabel Schnabel 🇪�.. @Isabel_Schnabel
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𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜�.. @EffMktHype
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Ricardo Reis @R2Rsquared
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Amelia Bourdeau 🇺�.. @AmeliaBourdeau
3K Followers 3K Following Wall Street: 18yrs Global Macro/FX on trading desk. ex FRB. Marathoner. @columbiajourn Views = own. @USNavy @USNATO spouse. Book call: https://t.co/wbiMTkQfW6As you all know, I’m typically very pro-EU/EZ, but there is something epically funny about an EU Commission led by a CDU pol accusing China of engaging in insufficient fiscal stimulus to spur local demand and relying too much on exports to spur recovery from a financial crisis.
There is a lot of chatter about Macron being very aligned with Draghi. But I see differences. Draghi in my reading is saying: we need EU market integration plus common tools to help firms exploit scale. Not quasi-national champions under the pretense of an EU marketplace.
In 2017, Macron’s call for EU strategic autonomy was prescient. The world has become more unfriendly to the EU’s naïve model of economic openness. Fair diagnosis - but in key areas his Sorbonne 2.0 speech presents a contradictory and unbalanced economic vision for Europe.🧵
Tldr for the not-so-brave: the legal push to central clearing of treasury repos will kill zero haircut trades, reduce leverage, so reduce credit risk, but also reduce the ability of the system to quickly arbitrage away anomalies in the market and correct them. But do read all!
A new centrally cleared era in repo markets is looming, which will cause an exodus from its shadowy yet most systemic regions. This may increase resiliency but also inhibit key trades gluing U.S. Treasury markets together. The Repo Leverage Squeeze™ is here... 1/
My latest for the @FT is about how economists could be more useful... 1st 300 clicks free to read on.ft.com/3Wg2pKQ
A thread long overdue (1/5): Despite rising investor optimism, this chart is what worries me the most. It shows that we may have entered the first episode in China's post-GFC history where credit demand from both households and corporates is falling at the same time.
Low 3M inflation in 2023 H2 gave a false signal of where trend was. Likewise, *for now* we should take the firm Q1 with a grain of salt. A simple YY, or a more sophisticated approach that filters out typical noise, yield similar answers: 2.8-2.9%, so ~ 2 1/2-3% w/ upward bias.
.@EmmanuelMacron warned today that the European Union and the European model of civilisation could “die” unless steps were taken in the next 5 years to create a European “power” which protected itself from Russian military aggression & Chinese & American protectionism. Thread 1/
Greek’s economic rebound in (painful) context on.ft.com/44bfeYR
La situation conjoncturelle reste terne, selon les enquêtes @InseeFr d'avril publiées ce matin. A noter dans l’industrie: pour la 1ère fois depuis 3 ans, les entreprises qui déclarent des difficultés de demande sont plus nombreuses que celles qui déclarent des difficultés d’offre
CAUTION: be careful extrapolating conclusions about future BLS revisions from the Business Employment Dynamics (BDM) data. Thread:
I’m waiting for comments from those claiming the right spreads are the result of @ecb manipulation.
The ECB continues to roll government debt off its balance sheet (quantitative tightening) - fastest pace for Portugal and Italy. via @DanielKral1
This #EconomicBulletin article shows that price increases became much more frequent in 2021 and 2022 but their frequency is coming back down to pre-pandemic levels. Read more to find out what this means for inflation and monetary policy transmission ecb.europa.eu/press/economic…
Nice article by @RichFedResearch on the history of the Fed's 2% target. It took over a decade to build internal consensus. Many considerations that shifted with the changing FOMC composition as well as economic conditions. richmondfed.org/publications/r…
Oh boy and oh well… I mean they have to if they are to contain the trade deficit which by the way is now back to 2006 levels (as a % of GDP for goods ex-O&G). But this is a very fraught path and chances are high Trump geniuses will actually deliver a good 70s redux playing with…
Macron pushing for Draghi to replace Von Der Leyen as commission president will drive both Fintwit and CovidTwit bananas!
Psyched to be on today’s FT Unhedged with the great @katie_martin_fx! podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/unh…
C’est le moment de relire cet excellent « La société de défiance » de @AlganYann et @cahuc_pierre cepremap.fr/depot/opus/OPU…
This is gold. The French national railway company will pay employees for more than a year without requiring them to do any work. But they argue it's not a cost but an investment because it will reduce the number of people not showing at work. I wish it was a joke.
My thing in @FTAlphaville on the Bernanke Review of the @bankofengland models and forecast: ft.com/content/f76c54…
Happy World Book Day! 📚📚 (and a tribute to the great @tomgauld )
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