Ed Bradford @Fullcarry
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym Darien, CT Joined February 2009-
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As expected, bank deposits have a tax day plunge
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Yenspotting, ie the practice of going long JPY when its MOF "watching carefully" weak and waiting for the "inevitable" intervention just isn't working this time as the currency takes out its LTCM lows of 1998
I am surprised NQ softening after the inflation data esp with Ts responding favorably
Ed Bradford retweeted
The core PCE price index rose 0.32% in March and was up 2.8% from a year earlier January's gain of 0.45% was revised to a gain of 0.50%. The 6-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation held steady at 3% in March The 3-month rate was 4.4%, up from 3.7% in February
Ed Bradford retweeted
FX dealers face end-of-day trading stress from T+1 shift Experts say switch to using overnight swaps could be “problematic” and lead to wider spreads risk.net/markets/795932…
Ed Bradford retweeted
The 3.7% core PCE beat is likely due to revised seasonal factors that boosted some of the PPI items in Jan/Feb (and maybe Mar). Think airfares and imputed financial serv. Mar may be higher due to imputed financial serv. Consensus of 0.30% more likely will straddle 0.3%/0.4%.
I share your urge to move to a mountain cabin with no internet or TV for the next six months, but a man's gotta trade
Day's not done. Federal Reserve's H.4.1 later today will be of note since its post tax deadline. Looking to see impact on bank reserves
A relatively small $44B 7-Year auction will be the last coupon offering of the month. Not a big extension month so focus will shift to FOMC and NFP in early May. I am guessing QRA will be uneventful. Of course, the late CPI on May 15th will be the key data print of the month
If only you could go back to December and swiftly sell some 30s below 4%. Trading above 4.82 currently
Front-end pulling back aggressively following the GDP QoQ core PCE print. Supply probably a big factor with a 7y still on deck today before the March core PCE print tomorrow. PMIs we hardly new yeah
Ed Bradford retweeted
If you have ever worked in foreign exchange sales or trading you know why “What time is BOJ?” Is funny. You might even feel some mild form of PTSD from it. To celebrate tomorrow’s BOJ, Spectra Markets made a hoodie featuring this question, posed in Japanese. Available now…
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@Fullcarry @WSJ When I saw that as a kid I thought he said "coals", and I just now realized it was Kools...
@Fullcarry @spomboy I can personally attest to all the points Ed has made.
@Fullcarry @Appman1981 Yeah makes sense, thank you.
@DannyDayan5 @Fullcarry Long yen in 1981 worked for me. It's a long way back down to that.
@Fullcarry @WSJ Haven't you people ever heard of coasters?
@Fullcarry This is literally this gen’s widow-maker.
@Fullcarry Just riding the down trend to the bitter end. Feels like a reversal is near given how many fintwit furus are talking about yen collapse again
@Fullcarry sorry meant, nevermind*, it's moving lower again, whipsaw reaction
@Fullcarry NDX Gap to fill from 4/24 (same in SPX) and then we should take out the news high before EOD
@Fullcarry Rates coming back up
@Fullcarry eb look at usdjpy vs 10y. one of the 2 is not telling the truth 🤔
@Fullcarry This is where I generally accumulate cheap optionality for a reversal and and leak out the delta slowly.
@Fullcarry Let it roll, I’ve been waiting all month to buy. Looks like a running correction to me which typically begins and ends with a spike move. ZB 111 is roughly the .786 retrace of the leg off the Oct low. I will start a position there if offered.
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