Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi
Personal account. Director of Economics at @The_Budget_Lab. Former Chief Economist at @WhiteHouseCEA; Evercore ISI; @USTreasury; @UpshotNYT. Silver Spring, MD Joined April 2009-
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Hedonic deflation!
How to say "hello" in different languages: Spanish: Hola Indonesian: Selamat siang Japanese: こんにちは CEA: OK nerds, let's talk triangle weighting.
Fascinating article. In Anglophone countries (US, UK, Canada, Australia, etc.), immigrants... 1. ...tend to pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits; 2. ...are underrepresented in prisons; 3. ...show more upward mobility than immigrants in Europe. on.ft.com/3QmwwMN
Low 3M inflation in 2023 H2 gave a false signal of where trend was. Likewise, *for now* we should take the firm Q1 with a grain of salt. A simple YY, or a more sophisticated approach that filters out typical noise, yield similar answers: 2.8-2.9%, so ~ 2 1/2-3% w/ upward bias.
Despite inflation, pandemic & political discord, America's share of world GDP is highest since 2006. Credit productivity, growth, innovation, but also huge, unending deficits. It's pushing up $, interest rates, threatening capital flight from EMs and protectionism vs China.…
smh
Financial imputations are part of the Q1 inflation story--vanilla core PCE ran 64bps hotter than market-based core in Q1 SAAR. It's one reason to weight Y-Y a bit more right now, which is 2.9% core and 2 3/4% market-based core as of Q1. Above target but lower than quarterly.
Financial imputations are part of the Q1 inflation story--vanilla core PCE ran 64bps hotter than market-based core in Q1 SAAR. It's one reason to weight Y-Y a bit more right now, which is 2.9% core and 2 3/4% market-based core as of Q1. Above target but lower than quarterly. https://t.co/pkXZMmnfFi
So as a matter of *accounting*, we have to subtract out imports from measured consumption and investment. Again, we have to do that because the question being answered by GDP is *domestic* output, and the consumption data we see includes imports. /2 x.com/ernietedeschi/…
So as a matter of *accounting*, we have to subtract out imports from measured consumption and investment. Again, we have to do that because the question being answered by GDP is *domestic* output, and the consumption data we see includes imports. /2 x.com/ernietedeschi/…
A fair point here. In a true sense, importing more doesn't "subtract from growth." The confusion arises because GDP estimates how much the US produces in goods & services domestically, but we can only observe *total* consumer spending & business investment, including imports. /1
A fair point here. In a true sense, importing more doesn't "subtract from growth." The confusion arises because GDP estimates how much the US produces in goods & services domestically, but we can only observe *total* consumer spending & business investment, including imports. /1
Over the past four quarters, real GDP grew 3.0%. This is considerably faster than what private forecasters anticipated a year ago, when the Blue Chip consensus forecasted 0.2% real GDP growth over this period. 4/
As the CEA discussed in the 2015 Economic Report of the President, PDFP can be a better measure of underlying GDP growth because it removes some of the more volatile elements of GDP that may not predict growth in future quarters. 3/ obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/…
Real private domestic final purchases (PDFP), which removes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending, is estimated to have grown by 3.1% at an annualized rate, a strong pace. In 2023:H2, real PDFP grew by a similar average pace of 3.2%. 2/
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It should have been obvious the porn bots were in charge the first time we clicked on an app that looks like this
Is there any data tracking signage? I regularly saw "paid for by the ARRA" signs in the 2010s.
first time i’ve seen one of these. are the democrats….learning???
That's unusual, an NBER paper that uses the all caps FED reference usually the harbinger of cranks. nber.org/system/files/w…
[Spiderman pointing dot PNG]
As you all know, I’m typically very pro-EU/EZ, but there is something epically funny about an EU Commission led by a CDU pol accusing China of engaging in insufficient fiscal stimulus to spur local demand and relying too much on exports to spur recovery from a financial crisis.
@ernietedeschi @kpomerleau Someone needs to meme this
@ernietedeschi @kpomerleau Is it possible that sometime in the not to distant future Kyle is sent back in time to fix a major tax policy disaster before it occurs…?
Am I the only one who notices a striking resemblance between @kpomerleau and chairman Smith?
"We at @Arnold_Ventures view legislative efforts to deal with the 2025 expiration of the individual (i.e., non-corporate) provisions of the TCJA on two metrics: tax reform and fiscal sustainability."
A book so squarely aimed at my interests it’s hard to believe it exists
Attention Virtual Boy Fans! I co-wrote a Platform Studies book called Seeing Red: Nintendo's Virtual Boy with @JoseZagal for MIT Press, and it's coming out May 14th You can pre-order it now on Amazon if you're wild about stereoscopic red consoles: amazon.com/Seeing-Red-Nin…
People have lost their doggone minds <evergreen tweet>
@ernietedeschi even with "cartels" controlling the economics? 😉
Director of Economics at The Budget Lab @ernietedeschi spoke with Rogé Karma for his article in @TheAtlantic "The Inflation Plateau" “The excess inflation we have left is in a few esoteric areas that reflect past price increases" - Ernie Tedeschi theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
@M_C_Klein What does "using the dollar" even mean? If a German company does more transactions in euros than it does now, is Germany no longer "using the dollar?" If it a central bank replaces 20 percent of its dollar reserves with euros and yen, is it no longer "using the dollar?"
Imagine supporting this while also claiming that the current account deficit is too wide...
NEW: Trump’s economic advisers are considering ways to actively stop nations from shifting away from using the dollar, sources tell me, @nancook + @JenniferJJacobs Penalties being discussed: export controls, currency manipulation charges and tariffs bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The core PCE price index rose 0.32% in March and was up 2.8% from a year earlier January's gain of 0.45% was revised to a gain of 0.50%. The 6-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation held steady at 3% in March The 3-month rate was 4.4%, up from 3.7% in February
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