Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon
Researcher, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (@wiiw_ac_at); political economy, economic policy, macroeconomics, public finance. wiiw.ac.at/philipp-heimbe… Joined August 2016-
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Following762
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@heimbergecon @ir_rkp When there is some criticism to austerity in the 🇫🇮 media, the right wing attacks with simple arguments without understanding or confronting the criticism itself. It has been succesfull tactic and we don’t have that much debate on anything else than details of economic policy.
The interview the Finnish finance minister doesn't like: "Economist warns Finland of harsh budget cuts. EU countries have shackled themselves with strict fiscal rules. This will dampen investment for decarbonisation and reduce EU's geopolitical relevance" hs.fi/talous/art-200…
I did an interview with the largest Finnish newspaper: "Economist warns Finland of consequences of harsh budget cuts. EU countries have shackled themselves with strict fiscal rules. This will dampen investment for decarbonisation and reduce EU's relevance in geopolitical context"
Finland's (right-wing) finance minister Riika Purra disapprovingly commented on my interview with largest Finnish newspaper. I might be on to something. Maybe there is too little critical public debate on the effects of fiscal consolidation in Finland? @ir_rkp
Vappuun on hyvä virittäytyä tällä @heimbergecon haastattelulla. Parhaita paloja ketjussa. "viime vuosina yltynyt geopoliittisten jännitteiden kasvu on muuttanut sen, miten eri maiden pitäisi suhtautua talouspolitiikkaansa" 🧵1/ hs.fi/talous/art-200…
ECB work on macroeconomic implications of EU fiscal rules adherence to the reformed EU fiscal framework would imply additional fiscal tightening over 2025-26 - which implies downside risks for economic growth.
New research in Nature suggests climate damages will be $38 trillion per year by 2050: "damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices"
Public debt ratios in Portugal and Greece have declined at an unprecedented pace from their pandemic peak. via @DanielKral1
Yesterday in Helsinki, I did a presentation on the outlook of major fiscal consolidations in the €zone from 2025 onwards, also discussing how monetary policy enters the picture. The video is here (I start at 13:30). Thanks to the organisers @HolappaLauri vimeo.com/event/4241244/…
Isabella M. Weber @IsabellaMWeber
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4K Followers 1K Following Economist @BMF_Bund, formerly @wto @ifo_Institut @Stanford @LMU_Muenchen @bse_barcelona, Reservist, personal views only@heimbergecon Great! The Finnish Minister of Finance Riikka Purra also commented on your interview. x.com/ir_rkp/status/…
Ei säästöjä, ei uudistuksia, ei ”kurjistamista”, ei poliittisesti vaikeita päätöksiä, vaan lisää menoja (kaikissa sykleissä), lisää sosiaaliturvaa, lisää elvytystä ”kasvun” aikaansaamiseksi? Samalla alijäämä- ja velkasäännöt lopullisesti hautaan? hs.fi/talous/art-200…
one of the prettiest sankeys ive ever laid eyes on ❤️🔥 global flows of cobalt, nickel, and manganese nature.com/articles/s4146…
.@heimbergecon showcasing @robin_j_brooks work at the very timely #UTAK conference on the return of austerity in Europe
@heimbergecon argumentoi, että talouskuri oli liian tiukkaa eurokriisin aikoihin, mikä oli lopulta haitallista myös julkisen velkakestävyyden kannalta. 2/
🧵Europe needs to reinvest in its own future if it wants to keep control of its destiny, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. We should seek to enhance public investment in European public goods via a European fiscal capacity. Full speech [ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…] 1/4
Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Ant and the Grasshopper: Seasonality and the Invention of Agriculture,” by Andrea Matranga (@andreamatranga): doi.org/10.1093/qje/qj…
Yesterday, the @Europarl_EN approved the #fiscalrules. Until 2028, we could see a new wave of austerity packages of around 4% of GDP in half of the Euro Area; due to the methods to analyse #debtsustainability – a problem, which could be fixed without changing the rules. A 🧵 1/8
The European Parliament requested me to write a study assessing the European Commission's orientations on reforming EU fiscal rules, with a focus on Debt Sustainability Analysis as an anchor for bilateral negotiations and surveillance. Here is a summary of my main results 🧵
Italy's superbonus: No doubt fiscally costly (~3.7% of GDP in 2023, though with frontloading in the accounting), but a) it was an effective incentive, +30% housing investment and b) ITA construction activity still remains below its level in 2000. Source: AMECO, GFCF construction
The wealth of the 400 richest Americans was equivalent to 2% of US GDP in 1982 (first year of the Forbes ranking) and now reaches 17% of GDP
@van_Hooijdonk Growth has been a more important driver of debt reduction in Greece since end-2020, subtracting 29ppts of GDP from debt, while inflation subtracted 25ppts.
The unfolding debt reduction episodes in Southern Europe are for the history books. The ones in 🇬🇷🇨🇾🇵🇹 are already the fastest on record - and likely soon to be the largest on record.
Historic debt reductions in small South European economies continue. Public debt to GDP ratio in Greece is now the lowest since mid-2012 (debt write-off), and in Portugal since mid-2010, dropping to below 100%. The two have cast off the long shadow of the Eurozone debt crisis.
Historic debt reductions in small South European economies continue. Public debt to GDP ratio in Greece is now the lowest since mid-2012 (debt write-off), and in Portugal since mid-2010, dropping to below 100%. The two have cast off the long shadow of the Eurozone debt crisis.
Euro area government #debt at 88.6% ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/we…
A summary of my impressions from a week in Washington at the IMF spring meetings: on geopolitics, Trump and the economies, particularly US fiscal and Fed and ECB policies. research.unicredit.eu/DocsKey/econom…
China is shredding through export markets all around the world and, at the same time, China is deglobalizing: how is that possible? 👉The China Globalization Paradox Today's Factful Friday:(🔗linkedin.com/pulse/chinese-…) cc: @IMD_Bschool @alanbeattie @jasonfurman @JustinWolfers…
Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "Working Remotely? Selection, Treatment, and the Market for Remote Work" by Natalia Emanuel and Emma Harrington. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
Jeremy Rudd is taking no prisoners
Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "Media Coverage of Immigration and the Polarization of Attitudes" by Sarah Schneider-Strawcyznski and Jérôme Valette. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
New research published in Nature today finds that we are on track for climate damages worth $38 trillion per year by 2050. This is a staggering figure. The damages are projected to be worth 6x more than the mitigation costs of limiting global warming to 2C.…
Excited to share our new paper “The Class Ceiling in Politics” conditionally accepted at @apsrjournal! Co-authored with @johannarickne. Available at: drive.google.com/file/d/1rdrUwP… 1/9