Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
Subscribe at https://t.co/VGtUvtX2QK for latest thoughts and analysis. YouTube: https://t.co/wTjbN1iNQ8 fedguy.com Joined July 2012-
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IME at FRBNY seniority was due tenure, so a small group of lifers held all the power. And because they could never be fired they basically owned the agency. Almost all were Dems, so I understand if a Repubican pres would be uncomfortable Btw all federal agencies are similar
IME at FRBNY seniority was due tenure, so a small group of lifers held all the power. And because they could never be fired they basically owned the agency. Almost all were Dems, so I understand if a Repubican pres would be uncomfortable Btw all federal agencies are similar
This is so crazy
IMO the pain trade here is to just go up to all time highs.
Moving a bit towards stagflation. Tough place for policy.
Of course, the timing looks just perfect for a debate over a Treaty change. 😬
Nice article by @RichFedResearch on the history of the Fed's 2% target. It took over a decade to build internal consensus. Many considerations that shifted with the changing FOMC composition as well as economic conditions. richmondfed.org/publications/r…
If demand for labor declines even as the supply of labor is increasing from the millions of migrants, then you could see a faster than expected rise in unemployment rate and a rapid decline in wage growth.
If demand for labor declines even as the supply of labor is increasing from the millions of migrants, then you could see a faster than expected rise in unemployment rate and a rapid decline in wage growth.
Markets Weekly April 20, 2024 Fed scares the market IMF concerned about US fiscal deficit A potential Trump Accord youtu.be/s48MUbGM5sw
Week Ahead: Is the #Fed too hawkish? @FedGuy12 says they could be.... Watch the full episode: youtu.be/0VvXiGA-DT4 Try CI Markets free at completeintel.com/markets
Interesting theory suggesting the GDP/GDI gap may be due to the surge in illegal immigrants, as their expenditures are captured in data but not their income.
Interesting theory suggesting the GDP/GDI gap may be due to the surge in illegal immigrants, as their expenditures are captured in data but not their income.
Fed securities today are about $7t. After the imminent taper, QT looks to be about 45b a month. So this projections implies QT could run for another 1 to 2 years. Just their best guess of course.
Fed securities today are about $7t. After the imminent taper, QT looks to be about 45b a month. So this projections implies QT could run for another 1 to 2 years. Just their best guess of course.
A 5% fiscal deficit forever means you are debasing the currency. Rates go higher, but all asset prices do as well. #crashup
Yes I still think 3 cuts this year.
I think market is too hawkish on Fed policy. I'm buying SFRZ5.
Looks like the Ministry of Finance is losing control
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30K Followers 79 Following White Paper: https://t.co/d1bTABI1QC My free short online book, The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy: https://t.co/bFdUV9ynJp@FedGuy12 1) This is outrageous 2) This table also just shows age. White populations are older 3) No policy has done more to cement inequality than post GFC mortgage reforms (championed by the Left still!), which made home ownership unattainable. A consequence of trying to punish banks
@FedGuy12 Yep.
Biden’s reason for raising capital gains to 44.6%
$SPY wow - I know most of u don't care about such things - but I worked hard for this. Thank you, not only for following, but for the quality of those following. I will keep trying to do even better going forward.
@FedGuy12 Agreed. That would be pain. Max pain if we get a reversal of this month over 5 trading sessions next week, ending the week up 5% across the indexes and by proxy having a lot of individual names up even further.
I’ve had it with people saying I look like this dude Insulting honestly
Policy mistake is in, now we will see what the Fed does.
Moving a bit towards stagflation. Tough place for policy.
@FedGuy12 It’s never a pain trade because most people are always long.
@FedGuy12 vehemently disagree. Which is fine, that is what makes markets
The 3.7% core PCE beat is likely due to revised seasonal factors that boosted some of the PPI items in Jan/Feb (and maybe Mar). Think airfares and imputed financial serv. Mar may be higher due to imputed financial serv. Consensus of 0.30% more likely will straddle 0.3%/0.4%.
Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights on where the GDP data from today leaves the price pressure landscape.
@ojblanchard1 So what? I spent my early career globalising US Treasuries as liquid central bank reserves, bank reserves, margin, and collateral assets. I single-handedly got USTs into Clearstream, Luxembourg. Chairman from Citi said it was 'impossible' and took me to lunch when it got the…
Seems like there will be a rude awakening for some people on here when the Treasury does what it said it would do and leave coupon sizes unchanged in next week's announcement
Today is my last day at @WSJ. I’m joining Yardeni Research as their chief markets strategist, working for Ed Yardeni. Grateful to have worked with truly exceptional colleagues at the Journal. I’m excited to join Yardeni soon; you can reach me at [email protected]
stocks close up today ill never be short again
@FedGuy12 Okay point taken. But this is pretty much the average print since 2021. I see this as a continuation of the overheated strong US. Don’t see how we can say we are “moving a bit towards” anything really. Inflation swaps r unched today.
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