Oliver Rakau @OliverRakau
Chief Germany Economist and ECB commentator @OxfordEconomics. All views very much my own. Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland Joined July 2015-
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Die Sparquote deutscher Haushalte ist in der Negativ-Zinsphase leicht angestiegen und lag deutlich über 10%.🧐
The latest ifo details suggest that the German restaurant CPI slowed markedly in April/May, after the VAT hike massively lifted prices at the start of the year.
Von der Leyen indicates that EU tariffs on Chinese cars are likely to come: “We like fair competition. What we don't like is when China floods the market with massively subsidized e-cars. That is what we are fighting against. Competition yes, dumping no. That must be our motto.”
This #EconomicBulletin article shows that price increases became much more frequent in 2021 and 2022 but their frequency is coming back down to pre-pandemic levels. Read more to find out what this means for inflation and monetary policy transmission ecb.europa.eu/press/economic…
Look at this wonderful map created by my team at @Hertie_Sustain Interconnection capacity by bidding zone Go Sweden!
The broad based beat of European service PMIs and disappointing manufacturing PMIs incl in UK is really a bit suspicious. Let's await ifo/INSEE/ESI before reading too much into it either way.
Bang on, real test will be next month
Bang on, real test will be next month https://t.co/UMQqIFZkgI
Solidifying signs of a cyclical pick up will make every ECB rate cut a fight as fears of demand led inflation linger. But reverse causality likely applies. Healing supply & slowing CPI are the recovery's foundation--> ECB shld remain "laser focused" on prices. German PMI comment:
Relatively goods news continues to pile up for Germany pointing to a gradual recovery led by... industry and trade(!?). Q1 exports are headed for the largest rise in a year after a horrible 2023. Much hyped consumer recovery? Not so much. May mean industry recovery has short legs
Relatively goods news continues to pile up for Germany pointing to a gradual recovery led by... industry and trade(!?). Q1 exports are headed for the largest rise in a year after a horrible 2023. Much hyped consumer recovery? Not so much. May mean industry recovery has short legs https://t.co/izT2i5Ih3i
ECB saying hello to rates markets that only price 60% prob of a June rate cut I
ECB saying hello to rates markets that only price 60% prob of a June rate cut I
Accurate summary of the ECB governors' response to rising accountability as described in the article below.
Accurate summary of the ECB governors' response to rising accountability as described in the article below. https://t.co/T7lFA59EQN
German trucking data remained volatile last week, but remains consistent with stable IP in March, which would cap a pretty solid Q1, if that materialises.
German trucking data remained volatile last week, but remains consistent with stable IP in March, which would cap a pretty solid Q1, if that materialises. https://t.co/oNWK6VscaU
Hard to believe but (relatively) good news is mounting for Germany. Hospitality turnover in Jan/Feb is up 0.7% on terrible Q4 offsetting some of the retail weakness. Early Easter could lift March. This adds to in part one-off driven IP strength. Q1 GDP surprise in the making?
The biggest bump with contribution of 0.11% was due to packaged holidays which were up by 3%. It is pretty likely we will get pay back in April, even though not complete one, much like last Easter. 2/
The German fin min arguing for continued fiscal restraint at home given inflationary effects of US fiscal policy. Problem is that neither US and German fiscal policy nor the general macro backdrop of the countries are even in the same universe right now. Election mode is on...
The German fin min arguing for continued fiscal restraint at home given inflationary effects of US fiscal policy. Problem is that neither US and German fiscal policy nor the general macro backdrop of the countries are even in the same universe right now. Election mode is on...
German insolvencies have normalized
German insolvencies have normalized
Very far from perfect, but early Easter does suggest that German April CPI should soften led by services and esp. package holidays after having boosted March.
Would really like to listen in to those post-meeting journo calls at least once 😄
Would really like to listen in to those post-meeting journo calls at least once 😄
Higher oil prices clearly will have an impact on the June ECB projection update. But including gas and electricity futures the outlook has worsened to a much lesser degree and prev. falls have not been fully passed through to consumers yet everywhere.
German trucking data from last week remains encouraging pointing to a recovery in industrial activity as do surveys especially the leading bits. I'd discount the drop in electricity consumption, which is likely due to last month having been the warmest March since at least 1990.
Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks
305K Followers 207 Following Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst, previously Chief Economist @IIF and Chief FX Strategist @GoldmanSachs. Opinions are my own. Email: [email protected].
Frederik Ducrozet @fwred
65K Followers 2K Following Head of Macroeconomic Research, Pictet Wealth Management @PictetGroup. ECB Watcher. All opinions mine.
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon
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Christophe Barraud�.. @C_Barraud
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Piet Haines Christian.. @pietphc
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Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰.. @jnordvig
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97K Followers 953 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
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47K Followers 2K Following Le poids d'un oiseau qui s'y pose suffit à déplacer la terre. The weight of a bird landing on it is enough to move the Earth
Christophe Barraud�.. @C_Barraud
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Piet Haines Christian.. @pietphc
7K Followers 460 Following Director at Danske Bank // Focus on ECB and EUR Fixed Income markets. [email protected] Ex. ECB / ESM / Nordea.
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59K Followers 2K Following PhD Economist, Founder+CEO @ExanteData & @MarketReaderInc Formerly: MD at Goldman, Head of Research at Nomura & Bridgewater. #1 Ranked by Institutional Investor
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HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW.. @HELLENICSHIP
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As you all know, I’m typically very pro-EU/EZ, but there is something epically funny about an EU Commission led by a CDU pol accusing China of engaging in insufficient fiscal stimulus to spur local demand and relying too much on exports to spur recovery from a financial crisis.
Wäre es eigentlich wirklich so schlimm, in den Vorstand der #Bundesbank auch mal Ökonomen zu berufen, die sich richtig gut mit #Geldpolitik auskennen? faz.net/1.9674423?prem…
@OliverRakau Will wait for the NSA data before making a call, March looked pretty strange given history.
@berndulrich Die Begriffe „Nebenfolgenkrise“ und „Dekadenzphase der Demokratie“ finde ich auf jeden Fall gut… ;-)
Our novel approach for gauging central bank stances puts the ECB as the most hawkish Board in the world currently. We analysed a sample of 22 regions. 1/n
Und sie merken nicht, wie sie immer weiter abdriften…
@BachmannRudi @faznet Das ist, mit Verlaub, Blödsinn. Die FAZ ist keineswegs mehr die altväterlich-konservative Zeitung, die sie einmal war (bzw. schwarz im Politikteil, rot im Feuilleton, gold/gelb im Wirtschaftsteil). Die schreibt mittlerweile schon für ein progressiv-urbanes Millieu.
Viele sich selbst duenkende Liberale hier haben in ihrer kindischen Reaktion auf @RichterHedwig 's Text doch nur eines bewiesen: dass sie (leider, sage ich) durchaus Recht hat.
Ein sprachgewaltiger Rant nicht nur über die FDP, sondern über die gesamte deutsche politische Elite, von @RichterHedwig , der vieles richtig beobachtet. Lesenswert ist er in jedem Fall.
@OliverRakau Yeah, I just like taking the piss 🤣 but a 'dot plot' thing could be a marginal improvement. My point is more like: can you guys please make more serious, coherent and relatively stable *economic* arguments rather than just throwing random comments every other day?! 🤣
*GERMAN ECONOMY PROBABLY GREW IN 1Q, BUNDESBANK SAYS Probably
5/4 (personally it just sits a bit uncomfortably to be forced to invest in a certain jurisdiction by curtailed choice rather than having a massive fundamental reason to want to buy and own said company).
@OliverRakau Thank Oliver, good stuff as always. What are you making of the fall in DE electricity prices generally? Seems to be a combo of nat gas + low demand, but low prices likely to feed into some better production numbers soon... Not a renaissance, but less bad.
I have an eery feeling that Lagarde isn't being dovish enough for some on the GC. A "sources" story could be incoming
Total nonsense.
Too many ECB cuts risk spooking markets, Allianz Chief Economist @Ludovic_Subran says bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @CraigStirling @daniburgz @ManusCranny
Und nun zu den wirklich wichtigen Nachrichten des jungen Tages: Jever-Bier ab Juni überall im ICE. (NWZ)
Good news: Die #Produktion der #energie|intensiven #Industrie|n hat in #NRW im Februar das Vorkriegsniveau wieder erreicht. Produktionsplus in der chemischen Industrie ggü. Vorjahresmonat von fast 18 Prozent 👉it.nrw/nrw-industrie-…
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