Game of Trades @GameofTrades_
Data-driven Investment Research | Follow to learn about #markets & the global #economy | Get your free 7-day trial at https://t.co/ij9EDOXEgD bit.ly/3JfDbUX Joined March 2020-
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The real stock market turning point will be a recession Which would be signaled by rising unemployment and an un-inverting yield curve As seen during the recessionary bear markets of: 1. Dot Com bubble 2. Financial Crisis These conditions have not been met yet
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This is a very concerning chart Bonds have broken down from a 40+ year uptrend While a bounce is very likely based on technicals + potential Fed rate cuts High levels of debt and high inflation are going to lead to much deeper downside this decade
Probability of a 2024 recession is still over 50% While we believe that short-term market structure is bullish Once the labor market and economy weakens, it’s game over
The market has now had 2 bullish developments this week: 1. Finding support on the rising channel 2. Reclaiming the $5050 resistance level In our opinion, this significantly skews the risk-reward towards the upside in the near-term
Gold/TLT ratio has a close correlation with US government spending As debt increases, Gold tends to outperform Bonds If the US government continues to increase debt at this rate, it would be very bullish for Gold
Oil just got rejected from a very critical downtrend resistance Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions, oil was unable to breakout We believe this signals more downside This could be what pushes stocks for another run higher
We are keeping a very close eye on the oil market Oil shocks have historically been the external shock that triggered a recession This happened in: 1970s, 1989, 2001 and 2007
WARNING: Home buying conditions have fallen off a cliff Current levels have NEVER been seen since in the last 60+ years
CAUTION: Housing defaults have now reached the highest level in a decade
Bankruptcy filings are rising rapidly This trend is worth keeping a close eye on Especially because higher bankruptcies would put pressure on the labor market
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@GameofTrades_ Awesome work thank you, gonna keep an eye on oil prices after that!
@GameofTrades_ Wonderful thread. Thanks for this amazing piece of research
totally agree we have warned about this for at least couple of years in our PMT Webinars
A major debt crisis is upon us This won't end well
@GameofTrades_ You can't be more right than exactly right, as GoT is now.
@GameofTrades_ Great as always 👌 I'm moving into bonds right now also. I think this prediction will prove accurate.
@GameofTrades_ Apparently you start making a lot of senses 👍
@GameofTrades_ Must consider that 6000 in the S&P 500 would be about 230% of GDP.
Chart of the day #3
The damage to the economy is worsening by the day This won’t end well
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@MauiBoyMacro @GameofTrades_ Pretty sure he meant this. investopedia.com/terms/m/money-…
@GameofTrades_ Excited to hear your insights! Let's dive into the thread. 📜🚀
Hopefully we are not repeating the inflation pattern of 1970s, but it is worth watching. (H/t @GameofTrades_)
@GameofTrades_ Brilliant thread I think. Lots to consider..
@GameofTrades_ Impressive stats, indeed! 🏞️📊
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