Brian McCarthy @briangobosox
Macrolens LLC, China-focused global macro strategy. Stamford, CT Joined May 2013-
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All true, which is why I expect any RMB devaluation is likely a post-election story (which is not so say you can't get some controlled weakness beforehand). A significant deval would probably get Trump elected. If Trump gets elected anyway, all bets are off...
All true, which is why I expect any RMB devaluation is likely a post-election story (which is not so say you can't get some controlled weakness beforehand). A significant deval would probably get Trump elected. If Trump gets elected anyway, all bets are off...
High-end residential R.E. in Tier-1 city centers (w/ scarcity value) probably isn't the worst wealth-preservation idea for high net-worth individuals with limited ability to get money offshore.
Debating the advisability of an RMB deval based on what it might do for Chinese exports misses the point entirely. China has 240% of GDP in M2 - state-owned bank liabilities which funded low-quality assets. If the market decides those liabilities are not serviceable in real…
Last weekend of burn season here in MA!
Important observation on a slight loosening in funding conditions in the CNH HIBOR market this week from @UrbanKaoboy. Here’s my two cents. I’m reluctant to infer too much signal from anything PBoC does these days, because the strategy lately has lacked any coherence. If the…
Important observation on a slight loosening in funding conditions in the CNH HIBOR market this week from @UrbanKaoboy. Here’s my two cents. I’m reluctant to infer too much signal from anything PBoC does these days, because the strategy lately has lacked any coherence. If the…
Here’s what everybody’s flippin’ out about…
Here’s what everybody’s flippin’ out about…
GS: Annualized US core PCE inflation accelerated to 4.2% in 2024Q1, but underlying trends are less alarming. The Q1 acceleration mostly reflected one-off surprises in acyclical categories where costs pass-through with long lags, and forward-looking indicators are at…
OK @hump_bear, go!
The stagflation narrative making the rounds today is silly. The guts of the GDP report were actually fine. The problem is that the inflation indices remain pumped up by price increase in deeply lagging sectors like rent and auto insurance and, in the case of PCE, by an…
CorePCE tom: m/m uncertain w/ poss jan/feb revisions, but math puts y/y rate at 2.9%, .2 above BBG consensus & .1 higher than Powell quoted last week. If this👇is right, its more of the same imputed/lagging stuff we've gotten thru Q1. Silly stuff for the Fed to basing policy on.
CorePCE tom: m/m uncertain w/ poss jan/feb revisions, but math puts y/y rate at 2.9%, .2 above BBG consensus & .1 higher than Powell quoted last week. If this👇is right, its more of the same imputed/lagging stuff we've gotten thru Q1. Silly stuff for the Fed to basing policy on.
A reasonable question: why would a free, open and truth-based society be so afraid of one conduit for 60-second snippets of Chinese propaganda?
A reasonable question: why would a free, open and truth-based society be so afraid of one conduit for 60-second snippets of Chinese propaganda?
Fantastic piece. While I believe we have witnessed peak China in terms of economic growth as it relates to public welfare, that shouldn’t be equated to China shrinking from the world stage. The CCP retains tremendous ability to extract resources from the populace to further the…
Fantastic piece. While I believe we have witnessed peak China in terms of economic growth as it relates to public welfare, that shouldn’t be equated to China shrinking from the world stage. The CCP retains tremendous ability to extract resources from the populace to further the…
A legendary trip with @vshih2 and @doumenzi circa 2015. My only regret is that we didn't catch a polo match... wsj.com/real-estate/ch…
Thank you @YahooFinance for having me on today to discuss the Tok Tok divestiture legislation and U.S-China trade relations.
Thank you @YahooFinance for having me on today to discuss the Tok Tok divestiture legislation and U.S-China trade relations.
The checkmate RMb move is a 35% devaluation and a re-peg to gold. No, they don’t need a huge gold hoard, just an ironclad commitment to manage the supply of RMB for the sole purpose of maintaining the gold parity. Giant roll of the dice that 35% is both enough to escape debt…
The checkmate RMb move is a 35% devaluation and a re-peg to gold. No, they don’t need a huge gold hoard, just an ironclad commitment to manage the supply of RMB for the sole purpose of maintaining the gold parity. Giant roll of the dice that 35% is both enough to escape debt…
Your Federal govt: we must have broad surveillance powers to thwart terrorist. Trust us, we won't abuse these powers (again). Also your Federal govt: It's perfectly fine to have open borders where absolutely anyone can enter the country unvetted. wsj.com/politics/natio…
I'm confused. I thought this green agenda was saving us from an existential threat. It sounds like maybe its a make-work program. (Xi: "check") "Although heavily subsidized exports of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles are helpful for containing inflation and…
When it's time for leavin' I hope you'll understand...
With the federal reserve hamstrung by its self-imposed reliance on deeply lagging indicators like Services prices, and equity valuations extended, a legit supply shock from the Middle East, should we get one, will cause a significant volatility event.
Marc Andreessen 🇺�.. @pmarca
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Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets
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Right now its between Porsches and LVMH or High End Luxury Apartments. Makes the latter look like a viable alternative
High-end residential R.E. in Tier-1 city centers (w/ scarcity value) probably isn't the worst wealth-preservation idea for high net-worth individuals with limited ability to get money offshore.
That is a scary possibility but unfortunately I agree also
5/6 I am not saying that a maxi-devaluation is impossible, but I think it would suggest that Beijing had completely given up believing that it could do anything to boost domestic spending, and would almost certainly set off a much more virulent stage of trade war.
I agree with Brian. There are geopolitical considerations. They will not do anything in the short run that can cause significant turbulence and make it a defining and relevant recent point of debate in the U.S. elections
Important observation on a slight loosening in funding conditions in the CNH HIBOR market this week from @UrbanKaoboy. Here’s my two cents. I’m reluctant to infer too much signal from anything PBoC does these days, because the strategy lately has lacked any coherence. If the…
Americans love their TikTok. I like the platform. Name a time where TikTok lead to a national security issue? What a farce. FFS I think Facebook is just as dangerous. In fact, I trust my data more with the Tok than Facebook.
Great analysis here
Important observation on a slight loosening in funding conditions in the CNH HIBOR market this week from @UrbanKaoboy. Here’s my two cents. I’m reluctant to infer too much signal from anything PBoC does these days, because the strategy lately has lacked any coherence. If the…
@HansKim2022 @briangobosox What China does in response…
@briangobosox I sometimes reflect on the original intent of markets—how we valued their ability to blunt the volatility of an economy that revolved around the seasons and the harvest. How far we have come since then.
@briangobosox @BaldingsWorld @504Esquire SCOTUS is very conservative but also has been very activist for First Amendment cases (ahem Citizens United). Kavanaugh is even on record before he was on SCOTUS that net neutrality laws violate Internet Service Providers' First Amendment rights.
@briangobosox @vshih2 @doumenzi I would love to be the fly on the wall to listen in the conversation you guys have !
@vshih2 @briangobosox I'm betting there are a lot of wild little Argentinian ponies wandering around Tianjin by now.
@briangobosox @doumenzi Not sure if those horses would’ve survived a full blown polo match. They weren’t the healthiest looking….
The Folly of China’s Real-Estate Boom Was Easy to See, but No One Wanted to Stop It/ Polo City finally made it to the WSJ! @briangobosox wsj.com/real-estate/ch…
@briangobosox @WarrenPlatts This is exactly correct. Telling communists to not be Communist is good advice. Not exactly plausible
@briangobosox @BaldingsWorld Best take Brian. Spot on.
@briangobosox Wow! The market reaction seems more like overreaction. Shelter is still lagged by 18 months
CRS basically means there is no financial safe haven left for Chinese dissidents in the world apart from the U.S. who is not a signatory to CRS. So we should be very careful sharing any data with them. They will abuse it Disengagement is the only option
"the U.S. and China will start Joint Treasury-PBOC Cooperation and Exchange on Anti-Money Laundering to expand cooperation against illicit finance and financial crime." Is it just me, or does that sound like the U.S. pledging to help Xi root out CCP officials with cash abroad?
@briangobosox @BaldingsWorld @robert_spalding @doumenzi Precisely. Time to release the currency valve. Yesterday. Xi has no choice. Add to everything else, ICBC and other state-owned banks’ earnings yesterday reaffirmed my confidence: the fate of $USDCNY is sealed.
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