Paul Donovan @PDonovan_econ
Economist and author. Part time farmer. Economics without jargon, but with sarcasm. Environmental econ, inflation, diversity. New book “Profit and Prejudice” ubs.com/pauldonovan Joined March 2017-
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Are consumers better off than we think? Consumer savings rates have fallen in advanced economies—but some consumer savings may be disguised as corporate savings ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Profits of the world, unite! Breaking down an economy into profits and wages is increasingly unhelpful. At least some profits are wages in disguise. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Another day, another set of inflation data Inflation numbers in Europe and the UK reinforce the idea that inflation pressures are neither sticky, nor especially conventional. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
More inflation data German and Spanish preliminary consumer price data are due, but should be relatively unchanged from the March figures ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Where have all the exports gone China exports more to the US than the US imports from China. This is a growing distortion, in an increasingly politically sensitive area. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Guessing games The first guess at first quarter US GDP is released. We should get an accurate picture of US economic activity sometime around 2030 ubs.com/global/en/weal…
US defunds Gen Z The Senate’s passage of a ban on TikTok reduces economic activity in the US, albeit growth that is probably under-reported in official data ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Details, details Structural change reduces data reliability and breaks traditional economic relationships. Attention to detail becomes more important. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Does higher for longer do anything? We hear a lot about “higher for longer” for interest rates. But at this stage of the inflation cycle, does “higher for longer” really help? ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Safe havens sought for now Israel attacked Iran, prompting a classic (perhaps unthinking) safe-haven bid. Does Iran respond, or pretend nothing happened? ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Hyman, Donovan SINGLE BEST IDEA on @Apple Podcasts SUBSCRIBE to Bloomberg Surveillance. Business News/Business podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blo…
The destructive power of economic nationalism Economic nationalism—a specific form of prejudice politics—is on the rise. This is potentially very economically destructive. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
The problems with Powell Federal Reserve Chair Powell said inflation was taking longer to reach 2%. He means the fictional OER is taking longer to reach 2%. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Unsurprisingly surprising China’s official growth data surprised in a way that will, unsurprisingly, make the official growth targets easier to achieve. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Tensions and ignoring tail risks Markets have been relatively calm despite heightened Middle Eastern tensions. This is not necessarily surprising. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Several media people contacted me about "China exporting deflation", but no one is asking about "US exporting deflation" (US export prices -1.4% yoy). Exporting deflation rarely happens. Typically over half the consumer price of an imported product covers domestic labour costs
Lies, damn lies, and comparing inflation statistics Markets focus on divergent US and European inflation. The problem with this narrative is the US and Europe inflation have identical rates. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Prices, policy, and politics The ECB is on course to cut rates in June, but markets knew that already. It should be sooner, but the delay is not too damaging. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Inflation comes unstuck Deflation exists somewhere in the US for almost every part of consumer prices. That is not consistent with structural inflation stickiness. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
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“US Congress lives in terror that China will learn the “Texas hold‘em” TikTok dance before Speaker Johnson has mastered the moves, and is proposing to tie a TikTok ban to aid measures for Ukraine and Israel.”
The destructive power of economic nationalism Economic nationalism—a specific form of prejudice politics—is on the rise. This is potentially very economically destructive. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
Hyman, Donovan SINGLE BEST IDEA on @Apple Podcasts SUBSCRIBE to Bloomberg Surveillance. Business News/Business podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blo…
Good evening gys MashaAllah very beautiful places in Pakistan like comments and repost to see more #กพ67 #KateMiddleton #RoyalAnnouncement #ziarat #jhelum
Interesting how a lot of the appalling hate directed towards the wonderful Princess of Wales seems to emanate from the rapidly diminishing "Sussex Squad"/ pro-Meghan crowd. A serious case of jealousy probably. thetimes.co.uk/article/kate-s…
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“Listed companies are more likely to be global than the economy as a whole. It is difficult to justify political claims that a rising equity market is a positive reflection on domestic policies if at least half listed corporate earnings come from abroad.”
Why rising equitites are not always "good" Politicians like to point to rising equity markets as proof of policy virility (especially at election time). This may be a dangerous focus. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
The excellent @PDonovan_econ making a very good point about one size is not fitting all. The anchor gets the point that divergence in inflation performance in the US is making it look like the eurozone. After 'Japanification', can we now talk about the eurofication of the US?
UBS Global Chief Economist Paul Donovan discusses why the US has an inflation problem in Texas and Florida trib.al/i6NxS92
UBS Global Chief Economist Paul Donovan discusses why the US has an inflation problem in Texas and Florida trib.al/i6NxS92
Students @StAnnesCollege in 1980 introduced an annual Founders’ Dinner so our history as a pioneering women’s college would not be forgotten. Founders’ Dinner speaker 2024, @PDonovan_econ , made us think, laugh & feel very proud of the College. Thank you, Paul, & all the team.
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In @nytopinion “Why aren’t voters recognizing the decline in the inflation rate? Because voters are humans, and humans don’t think about inflation rationally. To understand why, let’s look at a Snickers bar,” Paul Donovan writes in a guest essay. nyti.ms/3O3ABnN
“Why aren’t voters recognizing the decline in the inflation rate? Because voters are humans, and humans don’t think about inflation rationally,” @PDonovan_econ writes. “To understand why, let’s look at a Snickers bar.” Read: nyti.ms/3S8geHx
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Best keynote address I’ve heard in a long time. @PDonovan_econ @BAFT
Many congratulations to former St Anne's College Principal, Tim Gardam, on being awarded a CBE in the New Year's Honours List! oxfordmail.co.uk/news/24023040.…
Paul Donovan: “Economic indicators designed in the 1920s struggle to accurately measure modern ways of working in the 2020s.” Exactly. Which is why @ONS started publishing monthly GDP and weekly real time indicators - and are modernising and transforming our economic #statistics
Whatever you thought about the Fed is confirmed The Federal Reserve minutes can confirm everyone’s preconceived bias. There were signals of rate cuts, but not imminent rate cuts. ubs.com/global/en/weal…
The first of two shows in which we explore the themes that will shape the next 12 months and those that might define the decade ahead with a @UBS panel of Paul Donovan, Kiran Ganesh, Dominic Schnider, Antoinette Zuidweg and Tony Petrov. #shareUBS monocle.com/radio/shows/th…
Fourth leg: Brig to Chur on the Glacier Express (While singing the Divine Comedy's National Express of course...)
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