Michael McDonald @ElectProject
Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections. electproject.org Gainesville, FL Joined September 2012-
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Don’t know why we are all shocked Barr has no core principle other than wielding power when he’s shown us as much time and time again
Don’t know why we are all shocked Barr has no core principle other than wielding power when he’s shown us as much time and time again
For those in the Houston area, a treat. We are collecting local election data for @HoustonEndowmnt which we are uploading to the @ufelectionlab archive election.lab.ufl.edu/data-archive/t…
The University of Florida (UF) is threatening students with suspension and banishment from campus for three years.
South Dakotans better hope they stay on Noem’s good side
No one wants to visit the Old Grey Lady
No one wants to visit the Old Grey Lady
I'd like to stipulate -- and I think all sides will agree -- Trump will rant whenever in front of a camera It's not news
The NYT wants you to continue to buy their Teslas
The NYT wants you to continue to buy their Teslas
Trump has Scott Baio
Had to delete the prior tweet. Folks pointed out and I confirmed by looking at the UNF poll release this is a national poll.
David Pecker secretly bought the NewYork Times
David Pecker secretly bought the NewYork Times
This tells you all you need to know about today’s Republican National Committee: The person in charge of election integrity for the @GOP was just indicted in Arizona for lack of election integrity.
STATEMENT FROM CONCERNED UT AUSTIN FACULTY. #NotOurTexas
BREAKING: Meadows, Giuliani and other Trump allies charged in Arizona 2020 election probe washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Being for free speech means tolerating speech you don’t like
Being for free speech means tolerating speech you don’t like
With the latest Economist/YouGov poll at a tie there are now 2 polls to push the Rasmussen +8 Trump poll off the RCP average…if they are brave enough to do it
With the latest Economist/YouGov poll at a tie there are now 2 polls to push the Rasmussen +8 Trump poll off the RCP average…if they are brave enough to do it
The call is coming from a Nate inside the NYT house
The call is coming from a Nate inside the NYT house https://t.co/W1vpxABIzf
If they do by a miracle rule for plaintiffs they'll say there isn't enough time to implement new districts for 2024
If they do by a miracle rule for plaintiffs they'll say there isn't enough time to implement new districts for 2024
Remember, all they do is projection. I would be interested in investigating why Truth Social is is clearly overvalued on the fundamentals. It is losing money and has no clear plan for profitability in a tough business space cnn.com/2024/04/24/bus…
Tom Bonier @tbonier
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838 Followers 3K Following "𝑾𝒆 𝒍𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒂 𝒔𝒐𝒄𝒊𝒆𝒕𝒚, 𝒘𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒆 𝒉𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒓 𝒊𝒔 𝒂 𝒅𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒕 𝒎𝒆𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒚. 𝑰𝒔𝒏'𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒓𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕.. 𝑩𝒂𝒕𝒎𝒂𝒏."
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@ElectProject Is a giant Marge-mallow about to walk around the corner?
Mom says flattery will get you everywhere.
@ElectProject @tbonier Will take it @ElectProject. But to echo @tbonier did any one ever argue or believe that Trump was a lock? Seems a bit much......
@ElectProject 30-26 Dem topline unweighted and 31-27 Dem topline weighted it seems so really similar
Of possible interest: @NateSilver538 @gelliottmorris @lxeagle17 @leedrutman @Redistrict @LoganR2WH @RyanDEnos @johnmsides @rnishimura @smfrogers @bradwascher @GalenMetzger1 @electionclark @ElectProject @vavreck @amandacox @sahilchinoy @admcrlson @CharlieCookDC @lennybronner 16/17
@MmeDefargeKnits @ElectProject Of course, the point is that this is just one more poll showing the same gap between registered voter samples and likely voters.
@ElectProject Quick, run out and buy a diesel-powered birthbath!
@ElectProject @gelliottmorris @DougJBalloon Agreed, after 2022 I stopped using them as much as a source given the adjustment led them completely astray. My favorite was the unweighted high quality congressional ballot aggregator @SplitTicket_ did. Hopefully they are planning something similar this cycle for the horse race
@Ken_Kiyama1 @ElectProject OK, I *think* this should make everything crystal clear with absolutely no confusion whatsoever...
It's the end of an era: @DavidLauter is leaving @latimes later in 24 after 40 yrs of explaining national politics to SoCal readers w/wit, insight & style. We covered prez campaigns & big Congressional fights & there was no one I'd rather be in the trenches with. He'll be missed
@ElectProject @mjs_DC They’re mentioned by themselves several times but also as a reason mortgage payments are rising.
@ElectProject No fooling, I will be one of the very first voters nationally to vote for President Biden's reelection in the 2024 general election, just as I was one of the very first voters (through MN early voting) to vote for him in the 2024 primary (19 January 2024).
@ElectProject @kkondik Slightly different group - but here is the undecided voters and their most important issue in the Emerson polling. The sample is big enough to allow for some conclusions. Crime is more important than Immigration, and healthcare is second. The D answer on crime is guns.
@ElectProject It’s big, as noted elsewhere. CI extends to about 0.5 either way. Separately I kinda thought that people would take the 0.1 point effect as a sign of Kennedy running have a minimal (but potentially consequential) impact. Apparently most people only read the first sentence
@ElectProject That's right. There are these OTHER Black voters out there, and they didn't vote in '20, '22, or the primary this year but they looooove Trump and just you wait and see.
@ElectProject NY Times has you covered; they didn’t skip a beat! x.com/jamisonfoser/s…
I cannot emphasize strongly enough how *stupid* the New York Times debate analysis is. It dings Biden for failing to "quell the concerns" *of his political opponents.* *these aren't "concerns," they are campaign attacks.*
Great thread
I've been meaning to put this in context since I saw it weeks ago. This statistic is insane. And I don't think people fully grasp how insane it is. So a brief explainer on why it's insane:
@DougJBalloon Roses are red Trump can be frightnin’ Here’s why that’s Bad news for Joe Biden
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