Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
Senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Don't call me Nate! baseballot.substack.com DC via Boston Joined December 2011-
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Fascinating @geoffreyvs chart showing asymmetric polarization. Congress has shed moderate Dems, though lefty Dems are about as liberal as they used to be. But all flavors of Republican have moved strongly rightward. abcnews.go.com/538/claims-uni…
It’s official. The Arizona House of Representatives blocked the Democrats' attempt repeal the state’s pre-Roe abortion ban.
BREAKING: Shomari Figures wins Democratic nomination in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District apnews.com/article/alabam…
Shohei Ohtani favorability April 2024 (change from Dec 2023) NET FAV: +12 (-5) Total favorable: 19% (-3) Total unfavorable: 8% (+3) 4/12-4/14, N=1,029 LV via @EchelonInsights Voter Omnibus
holy burn rate… Johnson 2024 q1: Rcp: $9.1 mil Exp: $7.3 mil vs McCarthy 2023 q1 Rcp: $28.9 mil Exp: $12.8 mil
holy burn rate… Johnson 2024 q1: Rcp: $9.1 mil Exp: $7.3 mil vs McCarthy 2023 q1 Rcp: $28.9 mil Exp: $12.8 mil
New from @jamesd0wns: Takeaways and analysis from Q1 House fundraising reports including a look at how the eight GOP members who voted to oust McCarthy are faring nationaljournal.com/s/724769/ihotl…
FEC reports show that while the Senate battlefield is not in their favor, Democrats have not seen a drop off in campaign contributions and will put up a fight, @kirk_bado reports. Read Hotline's Q1 Senate fundraising roundup here (unlocked): njour.nl/s/724764/?unlo…
NEW: Maine just passed a law to join the National Popular Vote Compact, giving it 209 of 270 electoral votes needed to activate. (Maine will still award EVs by House district until then). This map shows which states could join for it to activate by 2028 dailykos.com/story/2024/4/1…
Our @SplitTicket_ poll: Biden 37/Trump 39/RFK Jr. 11. Generic ballot D+2 (44D-42R). What I do find interesting is how different young voters look here: Trump *wins* them despite Democrats leading the generic ballot with young voters, 49-34. Why? Read: split-ticket.org/2024/04/15/cha…
Given that SOTUs have historically not mattered for the president’s popularity, I strongly suspect Biden’s improvement is due not to the SOTU, but rather Trump winning the GOP primary.
Given that SOTUs have historically not mattered for the president’s popularity, I strongly suspect Biden’s improvement is due not to the SOTU, but rather Trump winning the GOP primary.
Mercy
I thought April Fool’s Day was over
From profiling presidential candidates & their supporters on the campaign trail to breaking down how decisions in Washington impact voters, hear from ABC News National Politics Reporter @brittanys (with free pizza!) TODAY at 12pm. RSVP (HUID req.): ken.sc/pizpol-0411
New Emerson College poll on the Florida ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution: 42% support it, 25% oppose it, 32% aren't sure. Remember it needs 60% to pass. emersoncollegepolling.com/florida-2024-p…
I have a new @FiveThirtyEight piece out, "The less you vote, the more you back Trump." It reports a striking finding from a new NORC survey: more frequent voters are more pro-Biden & less frequent voters are more pro-Trump. 1/2 abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-…
Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
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472K Followers 1K Following chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
118K Followers 526 Following editorial director of data analytics @abc news + 538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks.Galen Druke @galendruke
51K Followers 1K Following Host and producer of the @FiveThirtyEight politics podcast for @ABC News. Previously @WPR, @WNYC Off-duty Galen: https://t.co/Qmm8nl11fTMax @maxtmcc
19K Followers 455 Following @SplitTicket_ | maps, data, and more | still an ardent supporter of long nebraskaGalen Metzger🪬📈.. @GalenMetzger1
16K Followers 342 Following Special elections enjoyer. 22. 2022 oracle. Anti-populist. National Security Lib. Fuck Alfalfa. Pangloss was right. ↙️↙️↙️Ryan Brune @BruneElections
20K Followers 583 Following Politics and Mapping Fanatic. Econ, Math, and Statistics. Go Bucks. Nonpartisan analysis, though will occasionally offer (liberal) personal opinions.Jacob Rubashkin @JacobRubashkin
29K Followers 2K Following deputy editor @InsideElections / formerly @NBCNews, @cnn, @cornellsun / Beltway born and raised / say hello: [email protected]J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
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20K Followers 583 Following Politics and Mapping Fanatic. Econ, Math, and Statistics. Go Bucks. Nonpartisan analysis, though will occasionally offer (liberal) personal opinions.Jacob Rubashkin @JacobRubashkin
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3K Followers 162 Following 薛利安 • UCLA '25 • managing editor, graphics @SplitTicket_it's rare for me to get to introduce a new concept in politics (US or anywhere honestly) to @baseballot so it was a thrill for me to get explain the finance minister's new shoes to him a few budgets ago youtube.com/watch?v=SsDXep…
@gelliottmorris My attorneys will be in touch, preserve your records
v weird to not be making a million basketball graphics this spring!!! i still adore this visual direction that @FiveThirtyEight ran for three years
@baseballot Yeah how are we determining the slopes/end points of these arrow line segments 🤔
Always appreciate @baseballot coming through with the numbers I'm looking for
Could Arab American and Muslim voters cost Biden the 2024 election? They're a small voting bloc but could make the difference in Michigan. trib.al/o93Frb0
This poll was conducted about a week after Democrats started airing ads attacking Erickson, who is anti-abortion, for paying for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2001
New in @njhotline: A new #OR06 internal poll (Sept. 29-30; 400 LVs; +/-4.83%) from Mike Erickson (R) found Erickson leading Andrea Salinas (D), 44%-39%. Biden carried the district by 13 points. More than $4M has been spent in the race already go.nationaljournal.com/subscribe-hotl…
Do political scandals still matter? Here's what the data -- and @NateSilver538 and @baseballot -- have to say: fivethirtyeight.com/features/polit…
Which seats could Republicans -- or Democrats -- flip to win the House? We used @FiveThirtyEight's forecast & midterm election data from 1998-2018 to provide an overview of the groups of seats to watch. Check @ryanabest's awesome cartograms! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/gop-house-2022/