G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
editorial director of data analytics @abc news/538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks. gelliottmorris.com Joined July 2009-
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Trump and Biden are tied in national presidential polls, according to 538’s just-published averages. Trump was at +2 in early March — so there has been a sizable shift towards the president over the last eight weeks.
Trump and Biden are tied in national presidential polls, according to 538’s just-published averages. Trump was at +2 in early March — so there has been a sizable shift towards the president over the last eight weeks.
I believe this is the first time 538 has published presidential general election polling averages with uncertainty intervals derived from the posterior predictive interval. Very proud of the team for making this possible
I believe this is the first time 538 has published presidential general election polling averages with uncertainty intervals derived from the posterior predictive interval. Very proud of the team for making this possible
i have a comment about this. i haven't vetted the methodology yet so not saying anything about the validity of this (we don't use MRP in the polling average because it messes up calculations). but can we please round those numbers to one sig dig (preferably 0)
i have a comment about this. i haven't vetted the methodology yet so not saying anything about the validity of this (we don't use MRP in the polling average because it messes up calculations). but can we please round those numbers to one sig dig (preferably 0)
some people are saying
Astead is correct
My personal policy is to not tweet single poll results as evidence for trends—even when using the same pollster’s previous polls. There is just too much noise. (This goes doubly for the opt-in online polls with poor sampling controls, a category that includes MC.) Use an average!
My personal policy is to not tweet single poll results as evidence for trends—even when using the same pollster’s previous polls. There is just too much noise. (This goes doubly for the opt-in online polls with poor sampling controls, a category that includes MC.) Use an average!
i’m begging you for a loess
you wouldn’t last an hour in the asylum where they raised me
clear trend reversal happening in Trump's fav rating
Insightful
IMO people are not sufficiently mentally prepared for this potential outcome
what do we think about this
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Matt Darling 🌐🏗.. @besttrousers
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J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
54K Followers 5K Following Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. 'A political Dora the Explorer.' @LSU grad. Author, America Votes 35. He/him
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I believe this is the first time 538 has published presidential general election polling averages with uncertainty intervals derived from the posterior predictive interval. Very proud of the team for making this possible
“Can you call the philosophy department and tell them I’ve been arrested?” is an all-time quote.
WATCH: Among those arrested today were Noelle McAfee, Chair of the Philosophy Department at Emory University. I’ve asked for a comment from Emory on this arrest, no word yet. This video provided to us by an #Emory PHD student. You can hear him in this video. @ATLNewsFirst
@erickson_68 @gelliottmorris Not enough polls! We need at least 5 polls from 3 different pollsters to confidently model any given state.
Huge congrats to @gelliottmorris and the whole FiveThirtyEight team on this release. Reading the accompanying story and methodology, it’s abundantly clear that an extraordinary amount of time, thought, and care went into creating these averages. 🫡
@gelliottmorris This looks great @gelliottmorris. Excited to dig into it.
The Atlantic is publishing several of my essays (with a new introduction) in a book this fall! On the Housing Crisis: Land, Development, Democracy will hit the shelves just in time for you to argue with your various relatives over the holidays.
If anyone is looking for a political fix tomorrow (Sunday) at 8:00 am ET, I will be doing C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, apparently I have appeared on C-SPAN 181 times over the years.
@gelliottmorris Both are woefully inferior to Buc-ee’s.
Frankly I salute the visionaries responsible for torching a quarter billion in venture capital with an idea as self-evidently moronic as "a pin, but with AI."
@gelliottmorris @rnishimura You hold onto that thing forever. It is priceless.
@awmercer @admcrlsn @lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_ @gelliottmorris I guess the trick is to use as an attention check/trap question whether they are licensed to operate a class SSGN submarine 😉
@gelliottmorris Temporarily coming out of my Twitter hiatus to reiterate that online opt-in samples have a serious risk of very large biases for young people. pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…
@lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_ @gelliottmorris @admcrlsn Great work! I still think that, aside of the "expressive responding", part of the problem here might also be due to what Pew call "bogus respondents" in opt-in panels (which is what that linked Pew article mainly talks about).
@gelliottmorris Wait I thought only Latinos got to be #NotAMonolith
@gelliottmorris This seems relevant and might interest... jstor.org/stable/25167622.
@senategabe @gelliottmorris If you're talking certainty you're 100% right. All I'm looking at is relative likelihood.
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