Kyle Kondik @kkondik
American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at https://t.co/vMxRSSZvVT kylekondik.com DC; [email protected] Joined February 2011-
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constitutional expert on whether the sitting VP, in this case Kamala Harris, could break a tied Senate vote on the VP choice in a contingent election (an object of fascination for me given plausible 269-269 scenarios in the Electoral College).
constitutional expert on whether the sitting VP, in this case Kamala Harris, could break a tied Senate vote on the VP choice in a contingent election (an object of fascination for me given plausible 269-269 scenarios in the Electoral College).
Change of tone from Trone on his self-funding from what he told Hotline in February on the left to this morning in Playbook
Special thanks to @Sen_JoeManchin & @Center4Politics Scholar @costareports for joining us today @UVA for Prof. @LarrySabato's classes and for spending time with Center interns. Well learned a lot and look forward to having you back.
NEW Senate polling As Dems play defense in '24, they start out ahead in Pennsylvania & Wisconsin Why races may tighten: Dems < 50% despite incumbency/name ID Difficult environment w/ ticket splitting rare Plenty undecided, and they lean Republican More: cbsnews.com/news/democrats…
If Howard Dean reclaims Vermont's governorship after 22 years away, he still wouldn't have the gap between two longest stints as a state governor. That honor belongs to West Virginia Republican Cecil Underwood, who returned in 1997 36 years after leaving.
“Biden is the clear choice of voters who consume newspapers and national network news, while Trump does best among voters who don’t follow political news at all.” nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
MI/PA/WI tight Majorities rated state economy poorly four years ago in pandemic Evaluating Trump today, voters focus on pre-pandemic economy, and many feel better off financially with him But Trump/Biden elicit more worry than confidence, lots of anger cbsnews.com/news/biden-tru…
Crystal Ball: @JMilesColeman dissects Biden's primary showing, and where he was relatively strong (and weak) by state -- centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wh…
more (warranted) skepticism of the "reverse coattails" idea liberalpatriot.com/p/reverse-coat…
Attorney General @JasonMiyaresVA is our guest today at 4:30PM in Jefferson Hall (Hotel C, West Range). Join us.
Attorney General @JasonMiyaresVA is our guest today at 4:30PM in Jefferson Hall (Hotel C, West Range). Join us.
Thought you were done with Primaries? PA+CA, and critical House seats that could help flip it back to D. Detailed analysis from @kkondik for @LarrySabato @Center4Politics Grudge match: Scott Perry (R, PA-10) Notes on the State of Politics: April 24, 2024 centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/no…
#PAPol: The #PA10 primary saw a total $640K in ad spending. Dem group House Majority PAC has already reserved $2.4M in the Harrisburg market for this fall. PA-10 2020 general: 🔵$7.4M 🔴$6.0M PA-10 2022 general: 🔴$1.2M 🔵$156K
Crystal Ball -- House rating change in PENNSYLVANIA Scott Perry (R, PA-10) Likely R to Leans R Plus details on the PA House primaries and a look at the finally finalized CA top-two results: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/no…
Remember that a quirk of the PA primary ballot is that candidates' home counties are listed, so it can contribute to some notable regional divides in voting
Tomorrow (Weds 4/24) VA Attorney Gen. @JasonMiyaresVA joins @Center4Politics 4:30PM Jeff Hall (Hotel C, West Ranger). His story doesn't start in VA, but in Havana, Cuba when his mother fled communist Cuba, penniless and homeless. Today, he's the first Latino-American elected to…
Abigail Spanberger is building momentum in her 2025 campaign for Virginia governor — so much so that rival Levar Stoney announced this morning he's shifting his focus to run for lieutenant governor instead. Link for full news release: mailchi.mp/55a00ae9bf11/r…
Martin Luther King III @OfficialMLK3 now on @UVA @Center4Politics faculty, pushes students to restore 'fibers of democracy'. Honored to have you & Prof. @Liz_Cheney on @Center4Politics team. dailyprogress.com/news/local/edu… via @DailyProgress
New national NBC News poll: The share of voters who say they have high interest in the 2024 election has hit a nearly 20-year low -- for this same point in a presidential race nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
It’s #NationalLookAlikeDay! 1. John Tyler & Peter Cushing 2. James Polk & Colin Farrell 3. Millard Fillmore & Alec Baldwin 4. Andrew Johnson & Tommy Lee Jones 5. Rutherford Hayes & Drew Brees 6. Warren Harding & Jim Carter
Drew Savicki @DrewSav
41K Followers 6K Following Politics, elections, stuff. CT-IL-NC. Bad speller. KISS fan, all around pop culture guy. Be prepared for bad food takes #ActuallyAutistic🧙♂️🗺️ He/Him
Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
44K Followers 2K Following @cal alum + lecturer; AI/software engineer; elections + modeling @SplitTicket_. Chelsea ⚽, Sharks 🏒, Giants ⚾. ✉️ [email protected]. views my own. he/him
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
61K Followers 3K Following Senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Don't call me Nate!
Larry Sabato @LarrySabato
208K Followers 38K Following Director, UVA @Center4Politics. Author, The Kennedy Half Century https://t.co/JYUokVHxEZ. Read the Crystal Ball every week: https://t.co/zPYuO6A8f9
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
177K Followers 2K Following CEO/Editor, The Nevada Independent. Your State. Your News. Your Voice. [email protected] #WeMatter
Thorongil @Thorongil16
18K Followers 3K Following partner and data director @splitticket_. boola boola @yale. the dream shall never die. counsellor to good causes near and far. planning special operations.
J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
54K Followers 5K Following Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. 'A political Dora the Explorer.' @LSU grad. Author, America Votes 35. He/him
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
118K Followers 528 Following editorial director of data analytics @abc news + 538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks.
Max @maxtmcc
19K Followers 455 Following @SplitTicket_ | maps, data, and more | still an ardent supporter of long nebraska
Niles Francis @NilesGApol
22K Followers 2K Following 22 (he/him/his) was: @GeorgiaStateU, @decisiondeskhq now: @GeorgiaSouthern, Peach State Politics
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
472K Followers 1K Following chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Galen Metzger🪬📈.. @GalenMetzger1
16K Followers 342 Following Special elections enjoyer. 22. 2022 oracle. Anti-populist. National Security Lib. Fuck Alfalfa. Pangloss was right. ↙️↙️↙️
Jacob Rubashkin @JacobRubashkin
29K Followers 2K Following deputy editor @InsideElections / formerly @NBCNews, @cnn, @cornellsun / Beltway born and raised / say hello: [email protected]
Ryan Brune @BruneElections
20K Followers 584 Following Politics and Mapping Fanatic. Econ, Math, and Statistics. Go Bucks. Nonpartisan analysis, though will occasionally offer (liberal) personal opinions.
Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende
65K Followers 930 Following
Michael McDonald @ElectProject
90K Followers 589 Following Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections.
Liam Donovan @LPDonovan
40K Followers 3K Following Politics. Hoyas. YMMV. Views expressed are mine alone, obviously. @TheLobbyShopPod
Ethan C7 @ECaliberSeven
11K Followers 73 Following 23 | Elections Nerd | Moderate Democrat | Part Time Optimist | Full Time Skeptic
Burgess Everett @burgessev
146K Followers 2K Following POLITICO congressional bureau chief. Photo by @frankthorp
عبدالجبارس�.. @abduagabbar
377 Followers 7K Following لا تحكم على الظاهر ، فالعظماء لا يتحدثون كثيراً عن أنفسهم
Jan Bittner @jan_bittner
42 Followers 641 Following Buten-Bremer im Einsatz für Nordrhein-Westfalen • Diplomat an der „Botschaft des Westens“ @NRW_in_Berlin • hier privat
Noah Thacker @Novanation63
56 Followers 141 Following
PollCollector @XPollCollector
41 Followers 400 Following I collect 𝕏 Polls See Highlights for tips #PollCollector #PollOfTheDay #Poll #Xpolls
Sudeep Reddy @Reddy
42K Followers 3K Following Senior Managing Editor @Politico | Former @WSJ editor/reporter and @DallasNews reporter | Adjunct faculty @HoyaJournalism | sreddy-at-politico-dot-com
Madison Tromler @MadisonWFMJ
1K Followers 1K Following Passionate journalist, 6 o’clock Evening News Anchor, Multi-Skilled Reporter @21WFMJ. Kent State University ‘20. 📧 [email protected]
Richard Cowan @ReutersCowan
152 Followers 346 Following Covering the U.S. Congress for Reuters, focusing on domestic policy and politics.
Leighton Slattery @LeightonSl9439
124 Followers 2K Following
Jose Carlos Quirce @joseq03350301
80 Followers 1K Following
STGG Guy 🏳️�.. @STGG_guy2116
1 Followers 2K Following Natural Science, Social Science, History, Instrumental Music mainly Bi 18 Anonymous for now
Gul Mohammad @GulMohamma5755
283 Followers 912 Following
Brendan Peabody @IrishGuy1984
651 Followers 6K Following
Siobhan Kingsley (she.. @SiobhanKingsley
30 Followers 575 Following Formerly a strategist for: @Liberal_Party 🇨🇦 + @AustralianLabor 🇦🇺 Currently: lost somewhere in D.C. 🇺🇸 (retweets ≠ endorsement) (she/her/elle) 🏳️🌈
notBlurfulby @Blurfulby174568
1 Followers 2 Following
Dos Corazones @deaconrigo
264 Followers 1K Following Devoted to spread the devotion to the Sacred Heart of Jesus and the Immaculate Heart of Mary: to Jesus thru Mary
Dungaree_recovery @dungarii
4 Followers 305 Following |I Cryptocurrency II Blockchain From smart contracts to DAOs, I'm here to innovate in the crypto space. Building DApps and shaping the metaverse in my passion
mablah50415 @mablah50415
1 Followers 29 Following
Crs2907 @crs2907
40 Followers 52 Following
Vinny Minchillo @yovinny
1K Followers 3K Following Ad guy (regular and political), novelist, car nut, typewriter collector, cat foster
thomasis @thomasis1991
0 Followers 60 Following
McSteate @MSteate6638
39 Followers 2K Following
Nativesplainer @nativesplainer
17 Followers 197 Following Native TV, Film, & Video Game creator. Merciless Indian Savage (according to the Declaration of Independence). Socialist.
Abdullah Usufzai @AbdullahUsufzai
58 Followers 124 Following
Gabriel Lecours-Bouff.. @LecoursBouffard
584 Followers 937 Following
Georgie porgie @lytle_deb74200
14 Followers 406 Following
Steven G. Bassett, Ph.. @biobassett
76 Followers 530 Following Retired biologist. Christian interested in Tolkien, history (esp. Southern U.S., medical, and social), and music (Beatles, CSN, The Who).
Jesse Conrad @Jesse_Conrad
162 Followers 2K Following My life consists of coffee & politics 🏳️🌈 Now:Berger Hirschberg Strategies Prior:The Advance Group, Freedom House Reading, PA →Brooklyn, NY Views are mine
Ryan Schmelz @RyanSchmelzFOX
2K Followers 2K Following @FoxNewsRadio Capitol Hill and White House Correspondent. [email protected]
Kbc @kbpjc
47 Followers 154 Following
Mitch MacDonald @MMD5959
3 Followers 372 Following
Kristin Flukey @FlukeyKristin
32 Followers 254 Following
cacciacapo @acapocaccia
139 Followers 759 Following
Robert Garnsey @rgastoria
399 Followers 1K Following Voice-over artist, lover of craft beers, Yankees, Steelers and Rangers fan, and political junkie.
... @Brend0n27
12 Followers 196 Following
Lena S 🟧 🇬🇧 @SchrieverLena
3K Followers 5K Following Just a mum to 3 wonderful young men, married 40 years to retired US Navy Corpsman 8402 , I am ex Women’s Royal Naval service (WRNS) and retired. NO DMs
Ochai @KarlmarkOchai
28 Followers 438 Following
Matthew James @Matt_DJames
185 Followers 858 Following Post-Doctoral Researcher @QueensRIU studying the mechanisms of breathlessness in chronic lung disease (He/him)
Scott t carroll @Scotttcarroll2
87 Followers 427 Following
Adi @Adi1538064
0 Followers 17 Following
Khizer Back2future @nannaboohloo
34 Followers 527 Following
Mavis Wanzsky @MWanzsky48978
34 Followers 2K Following I'm Mavis Wanzsky the lottery winner the winning amount of $787.7 million I'm giving out $30,000 to my first 250 followers Dm "Mavis I followed"
Gavin Did This @GavinDidThis
31 Followers 87 Following
Patsy "Dr. Harmony" E.. @HarmonyUsInc
45K Followers 24K Following #Traumatologist #Activist #DrHarmony #MentalHealth #Sexpert #DocAnon #drharmonyarmy #Shoggath #AlchemistArtist
Drew Savicki @DrewSav
41K Followers 6K Following Politics, elections, stuff. CT-IL-NC. Bad speller. KISS fan, all around pop culture guy. Be prepared for bad food takes #ActuallyAutistic🧙♂️🗺️ He/Him
Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
44K Followers 2K Following @cal alum + lecturer; AI/software engineer; elections + modeling @SplitTicket_. Chelsea ⚽, Sharks 🏒, Giants ⚾. ✉️ [email protected]. views my own. he/him
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
61K Followers 3K Following Senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Don't call me Nate!
Larry Sabato @LarrySabato
208K Followers 38K Following Director, UVA @Center4Politics. Author, The Kennedy Half Century https://t.co/JYUokVHxEZ. Read the Crystal Ball every week: https://t.co/zPYuO6A8f9
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
177K Followers 2K Following CEO/Editor, The Nevada Independent. Your State. Your News. Your Voice. [email protected] #WeMatter
Thorongil @Thorongil16
18K Followers 3K Following partner and data director @splitticket_. boola boola @yale. the dream shall never die. counsellor to good causes near and far. planning special operations.
J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
54K Followers 5K Following Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. 'A political Dora the Explorer.' @LSU grad. Author, America Votes 35. He/him
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
118K Followers 528 Following editorial director of data analytics @abc news + 538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks.
Max @maxtmcc
19K Followers 455 Following @SplitTicket_ | maps, data, and more | still an ardent supporter of long nebraska
Niles Francis @NilesGApol
22K Followers 2K Following 22 (he/him/his) was: @GeorgiaStateU, @decisiondeskhq now: @GeorgiaSouthern, Peach State Politics
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
472K Followers 1K Following chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Jacob Rubashkin @JacobRubashkin
29K Followers 2K Following deputy editor @InsideElections / formerly @NBCNews, @cnn, @cornellsun / Beltway born and raised / say hello: [email protected]
Ryan Brune @BruneElections
20K Followers 584 Following Politics and Mapping Fanatic. Econ, Math, and Statistics. Go Bucks. Nonpartisan analysis, though will occasionally offer (liberal) personal opinions.
Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende
65K Followers 930 Following
Michael McDonald @ElectProject
90K Followers 589 Following Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections.
Liam Donovan @LPDonovan
40K Followers 3K Following Politics. Hoyas. YMMV. Views expressed are mine alone, obviously. @TheLobbyShopPod
Ethan C7 @ECaliberSeven
11K Followers 73 Following 23 | Elections Nerd | Moderate Democrat | Part Time Optimist | Full Time Skeptic
Burgess Everett @burgessev
146K Followers 2K Following POLITICO congressional bureau chief. Photo by @frankthorp
Chaz Nuttycombe @ChazNuttycombe
27K Followers 527 Following Director of @CNalysis.com. Nonpartisan state legislative elections expert and forecaster of six years. Opinions my own. VT '24. Contact: [email protected]
Brian Kalt @ProfBrianKalt
12K Followers 369 Following Const'l law & history of the presidency. I typically tweet as an explainer, not an advocate. DMs open for questions. Professor @MSULaw; loyal @UMich alum/fan
Madison Tromler @MadisonWFMJ
1K Followers 1K Following Passionate journalist, 6 o’clock Evening News Anchor, Multi-Skilled Reporter @21WFMJ. Kent State University ‘20. 📧 [email protected]
Antony Green - electi.. @AntonyGreenElec
220K Followers 149 Following Election Analyst with ABC but all opinions and tweets are my own views. Keen bike rider. I block people who flood my timeline with posts.
Brody Mullins @BrodyMullinsDC
1K Followers 175 Following Pulitzer Prize winning investigative reporter @WSJ. Author of The Wolves of K Street. Pre-order https://t.co/XC61RGjMBR. [email protected]
David Mislin @dmislin
3K Followers 2K Following US Historian currently writing about religion, progressive politics, and small towns. @TempleUniv @IHProgram faculty. Runner. Beer fan. He/Him. Views my own.
ringwiss @ringwiss
17K Followers 175 Following 🏳️🌈 🇪🇺 🇵🇱 🇬🇧 He/him. Armchair parliamentarian. I type at 140 wpm. RTs are endorsements.
NBA Communications @NBAPR
142K Followers 408 Following Official league news and information directly from NBA PR.
Allison Novelo @AlliNovelo
782 Followers 695 Following ‘24 Campaign embed @CBSnews | Formerly @Suntimes | Scholar @whca | MS @medillschool | BA @Uofillinois | She/Her/Hers | Send tips to: [email protected]
National Weather Serv.. @NWS
3.1M Followers 328 Following Official Twitter account for @NOAA's National Weather Service. A list of official NWS accounts can be found at https://t.co/x5itrXGTJT
Daniel Knowles @dlknowles
27K Followers 4K Following Midwest correspondent @TheEconomist. Before that, in London, Mumbai, Nairobi and DC. Author of Carmageddon: https://t.co/2jGfnn0t9x
Tanner @Tanner62403
9 Followers 150 Following
Ryan S. Powers @RyanSPowers
2K Followers 3K Following @NRCC Research Director | @FloridaState Alum | @FulhamDC #FFC | You may not like me or what I have to say. But deep down, you know I'm right.
Mary Kate Cary @mkcary
2K Followers 871 Following Dir. of Think Again @ UVA - home of free speech, viewpoint diversity, critical thinking & intellectual humility on Grounds. Adjunct Professor.
kierra frazier @kierrasfrazier
3K Followers 2K Following breaking news reporter @politico | pop culture aficionado & former midwesterner | say hi: [email protected]
Bryan Bennett (bryanb.. @bryanbennett85
1K Followers 2K Following Polling & Analytics, The Hub Project & @NavigatorSurvey. Tweets about polls, progressive politics, and random stuff. Thoughts are my own. RTs ≠ endorsements.
Randall Fowler @RandallFowlerTX
378 Followers 1K Following Assistant Professor of Communication @ACUedu. @UMD_COMM, @AmeriCorps & @FulbrightPrgrm alum. Husband to Sarah Grace. I study US foreign policy rhetoric in MENA.
Nathan McDermott @natemcdermott
25K Followers 2K Following Roaming political reporter formerly of KFile at CNN and BuzzFeed. Email:[email protected] Instagram:nathan.mcdermott
ASARB @ReligionCensus
296 Followers 161 Following The Religion Census is a product of the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies (ASARB). For more on the ASARB, see https://t.co/i3ImKpc8qs.
Daniel Marans @danielmarans
21K Followers 13K Following Senior politics reporter, @HuffPost. [email protected]
Lost In The Middle @LostInMiddlePod
74 Followers 138 Following 🇺🇸 Lost in the Middle: America’s Political Orphans 🎙️ Hosted by Scott Klug, Former U.S. Congressman and Emmy award-winning reporter.
John Bisognano @johnbisognano
13K Followers 2K Following Pro: Democracy Anti: Gerrymandering President @DemRedistrict, @AllOnTheLine & @RedistrictFdn 🗺 Past: @BarackObama🗳 Board: @NILCJusticeFund🗽 From: MA/NH 🏠
Chris Pugh @ChrisPughEdits
1K Followers 517 Following @mahoningmatters editor. Send news tips to [email protected]. Interested in journalism, PR, marketing, social media and TV.
Michael Pruser @MichaelPruser
4K Followers 28 Following Data-driven analytics focused on turnout and voter registration.
Nicholas Fandos @npfandos
33K Followers 2K Following NY political correspondent for @nytmetro. Former congressional reporter. Tips and other emails to [email protected]
Matt Williams @StatsWilliams
8K Followers 483 Following Research Producer with ESPN. Previously with the Washington Wizards and Capitals
DC Crime Facts @dccrimefacts
9K Followers 85 Following
Rachel Van Dongen @RachelVanD
4K Followers 5K Following Director of Elections for @WashingtonPost. Ex @politico, @rollcall. Proud swamp creature. Taylor Swift is not ok.
Amtrak Northeast @AmtrakNECAlerts
95K Followers 8 Following Real-time service delay information affecting two or more trains in the Northeast Region from VA to ME.
Norah O'Donnell 🇺�.. @NorahODonnell
266K Followers 2K Following Wife, mom of 3, Anchor & Managing Editor @cbseveningnews, proud family in @USArmy, #1 fan of @chefgeoffs. Tweet LOVE
Tom Roussey @tomroussey7news
11K Followers 3K Following Transportation reporter covering DC, MD & VA for ABC7. Graduate of Paint Branch High in Montgomery Co & Univ. of Maryland. Christian. Love sports, books, Terps!
jake rosen @JakeMRosen
3K Followers 2K Following @CBSNews Campaign Reporter | @SMPAGWU alum | suffering jets and Mets fan | Have a pitch/tip? Email me at [email protected].
westerosies @westerosies
276K Followers 222 Following Fan-source for all the latest news & content for @hbo’s #GameOfThrones Universe; #HouseOfTheDragon; #AKOTSK; #ASOIAF • 📩 Inquiries: [email protected]
derek guy @dieworkwear
840K Followers 963 Following Menswear writer. Editor at @putthison. Creator of @RLGoesHard. Bylines at The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Financial Times, Esquire, and Mr. Porter
Deb Otis @DebTheOtis
346 Followers 121 Following Research analyst at @FairVote. Board game and baking enthusiast.
Ryan Gest @RyanGestEPO
1K Followers 94 Following Data & Digital @DecisionDeskHQ. Political Communication @smpagwu. Founder of Election Predictions Official.
NY Law School Census .. @NYElectionNews
2K Followers 744 Following @NYLawSchool NY Census & Redistricting Institute, a resource center on redistricting, voting rights, elections & census. by @JeffWice https://t.co/Jv6V6x6NOg
New York Analyst @AnalystAtADiner
703 Followers 28 Following Analyzing elections and demographics in New York, with a focus on Long Island
Clyde So Fly @ClydeSoFly10
9K Followers 529 Following Grading Walt Clyde Frazier's suits one game at a time. Follow me on Instagram: clydesofly
capatostadc @capatostadc
24 Followers 45 Following An Italian family owned local business , providing you with taste, quality, and authenticity. “We may be hard-headed but we aren’t hard-hearted”
Ethan Sands @EjElite1
3K Followers 2K Following Cavs for @clevelanddotcom l @ohiou & @sji_update alum l past: @MLB, @usatodaysports, @latimessports, @thepost & @woub l ΚΑΨ♦️#LackOfWorries🎈
Aaron Shroyer @ShroyerAaron
367 Followers 1K Following Housing + urban policy with the occasional basketball tweet. Formerly @urbaninstitute. Double Hoo. All views expressed are my own.
Connor Joseph @ConnorJoseph
2K Followers 3K Following Senior Advisor @RepSpanberger / Communications Director @SpanbergerForVa. Tweets are my own, RTs not endorsements.
Robert Hardie @RDHardie
83 Followers 89 Following@MattGlassman312 @kkondik I would say no, because 12A says "a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice," so if you don't have 51 senators you aren't a winner.
For presidential candidates who are not the Republican or Democratic Party nominee, getting on the ballot is a state-by-state, make-or-break scramble. Here are the states where each third-party and independent candidates are on the general election ballot. nyti.ms/3ways4d
Thank you to @kkondik, @ChazNuttycombe, @lxeagle17, and @nathanlgonzales for letting me interview for this series of articles!
@omnius_eacc @burny_tech It isn’t that voters are becoming more authoritarian in response to frustration with the system - voters are actually a lot less authoritarian then they were 20 years ago! What’s changed is that the masses have been able to recapture agenda control that was taken from them after…
Look what came in the mail! _I’m Here to Ask for Your Vote_ by @ProfDevine. I’ve already read it in draft form and HIGHLY recommend it. If you’re interested in presidential campaigns you should read this book.
@CitizenCabe @kkondik Philip Francis Thomas, a Congresscritter from Maryland, holds the current record with a 34 year gap (1838 to 1874)
@kkondik I really appreciated the write-up on this, esp. the point about Gallego being less dependent on a big crossover vote than Tester/Brown -- it was a helpful way to think about the map more broadly.
Another competitive state slipping away from Republicans due to political malpractice and ineptitude. Arizona elections aren’t being stolen — they’re being given away.
Crystal Ball rating changes this morning in ARIZONA -- AZ-SEN Toss-up to Leans D Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6) Leans R to Toss-up Explained here: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ra…
@kkondik Agree. I do think Dems have good candidates in both places — if they raise enough money & abortion politics continue to trend bad for Rs, I could see these moving to “lean R” — but I imagine it would take something of a Trump collapse for Ds to win. We’ll see if Ds play offense.
Fitzpatrick's campaign responded: "This lame attempt to prop up Mark Houck … shows just how desperate [Democrats] are to force their extreme policies on Bucks and Montgomery County voters." politico.com/live-updates/2…
Looking at our historical polling averages, major third-party presidential candidates have typically lost about 40% of their support between April and Nov. That would put Kennedy in mid single digits — likely too low for any Electoral Votes, but large enough to play spoiler
Very quietly, RFK Jr.’s average vote share in national polls has been shrinking in since he announced his independent bid in October: Oct: 13.2% Nov: 13.5% Dec: 11.2% Jan: 9.7% Feb: 11.3% Mar: 9.9% Apr (so far): 8.0%
@bpmehlman @kkondik Old news at this point, but the VA-WV flip is interesting to see visually!
O.J. was acquitted of murder but was later found liable for it in a civil trial. So does that make him a murderer? The parallel here is Trump, found responsible for sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll in a civil case but never convicted in a criminal trial.
Ipsos Poll: 42 Percent of Hispanic Americans Want Border Wall newsmax.com/politics/ipsos…
@kkondik It would be fun to see a prediction map put into the time capsule. Just to see what you think the map might look like in 25 years and how close it ends up
Très instructif.
Crystal Ball - An Electoral College Time Capsule; a look at how the map has changed in two 25-year intervals centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/an…
@kkondik @Center4Politics this assumes that Barron Trump has not succeeded his father as Supreme Leader in the tradition of the Democratic People’s Republic of 🇰🇵North Korea’s Kim Dynasty
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