Merrill Stillwell @stillwell
Mountain Real Estate Investor - Retail & Apartments | Quant Public Equities | CFA Littleton, Colorado Joined March 2009-
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Nobody ever says "I feel really certain about the economy right now. This is an easy time to invest" It is always "well, this is such a tough time. The market is so unpredictable. We need to be cautious because of (insert latest headline)" Can safely ignore market predictions.
All of the construction around the Denver metro area... and barely any of it is condos. A bummer as this is the ideal place for home ownership to get started. Still major issues getting projects done in Colorado. (H/T) the @chrisframpton newsletter
Money can get made betting on short term price movements or wading into unclear situations but life changing money is earned holding high quality for the long term
There is an inverse correlation between invitations to cool things and time available. Younger, non-two young kids me would absolutely love going to all these events!
Made the paper today with one of our newer acquisitions! It is so much fun working with a hot local business like this. Crazy that there is already so much buzz about this new Littleton location (s/o Little Man's #1 fan @jmwass)
Made the paper today with one of our newer acquisitions! It is so much fun working with a hot local business like this. Crazy that there is already so much buzz about this new Littleton location (s/o Little Man's #1 fan @jmwass)
Impressive decision from Mark Leonard at Constellation Software: Clearly communicating w/ investors that he was going to lower his return targets to do more deals. He felt like his performance would still exceed whatever investors could reinvest dividends into (and he was right!)
My problem investing in YOLO assets: I'm going to miss the FOMO part of the cycle. I want to sell if it becomes anything meaningful. How can I make great investment decisions on something that required me to leave my process from the start?
Within the elite ski town markets: -always new capital available -some interesting mechanisms that pull supply when times are tough -major new construction is rare -owners tend to be very well capitalized -the cycle really shows up more in volume than in sales prices
Everyone is talking about a wave of business sales as boomers start to retire but there will also be one in real estate. Eventually, owners or their kids won't want to operate or own them. That wave will be behind the business wave as real estate is much easier to operate.
I like to think of myself as an original thinker making my own decisions... but I got married & had kids at the same time as my college buddies. And a good chunk of them happened to live near me freshman year.
I find myself coming back to the most basic real estate strategy I can imagine. The type of property that someone with zero real estate experience could walk by and say: "That would be awesome to own. Whoever bought that back in the day must be doing pretty well"
Position sizing is MORE important than valuing an individual investment & yet it gets far less attention. Doubling a tiny bet can barely move the needle. A portfolio can be connected to one industry or event that goes the other way. Portfolio construction is a tricky art
Big shift in Colorado with a light form of rent control. This does not have the formal process in other States but it does open up lease renewals to legal scrutiny (including for unreasonable rent increases)
Big shift in Colorado with a light form of rent control. This does not have the formal process in other States but it does open up lease renewals to legal scrutiny (including for unreasonable rent increases)
Strange times with real estate operations strong (excluding office) but the financial picture behind them a mess. Real trouble would pop up if the economy took a turn downward.
Really trying to savor having a local team like this while we have them. Such an awesome team + so fun to watch + want to spend their whole career here. Peak fan experience
Really trying to savor having a local team like this while we have them. Such an awesome team + so fun to watch + want to spend their whole career here. Peak fan experience
The end of a construction project is always the most painful. Everyone wants to punch out but the remaining items can be complicated & subs have moved on. How people handle the end of a project is a great tell for if we want to work with them on new ones.
A question I always ask myself when looking at a new opportunity: How many smart people have already passed on this before it got to me? Why am I the lucky guy to see this?
Awesome listen. One point Shaposhnik has clearly thought about a ton: predictability of his investments Business models are inherently superior if they are steady & allow management to make long term decisions. (and he points out how these stocks are easier to hold as investors)
Awesome listen. One point Shaposhnik has clearly thought about a ton: predictability of his investments Business models are inherently superior if they are steady & allow management to make long term decisions. (and he points out how these stocks are easier to hold as investors)
Secondary effects from this market dynamic: Compared to smaller developers, big developers tend to repeat designs, get less creative and don't hold onto their buildings long after completion. A bummer as communities would appreciate the work from smaller shops.
Secondary effects from this market dynamic: Compared to smaller developers, big developers tend to repeat designs, get less creative and don't hold onto their buildings long after completion. A bummer as communities would appreciate the work from smaller shops.
It took having kids to really appreciate a place where all ages like hanging out. Steam Coffee & Prost Brewing here. Fun to see kids, dogs, first dates (both boomers & millennials!), expecting mothers & more all enjoying the same place.
StripMallGuy @realEstateTrent
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22K Followers 600 Following Dad. Husband. Engineer. Planner. Author. Books: Strong Towns | Confessions of a Recovering Engineer | Escaping the Housing Trap@stillwell In Proverbs in the Bible it says to plant no matter what because you don’t which field will produce a harvest or if all of them will produce
#truth Certainty and Future Returns are inversely correlated
Nobody ever says "I feel really certain about the economy right now. This is an easy time to invest" It is always "well, this is such a tough time. The market is so unpredictable. We need to be cautious because of (insert latest headline)" Can safely ignore market predictions.
@stillwell Some people say they are certain about the economy and you can be certain they don’t know what they are talking about.
The Holy Grail, which we had from like '12-'18, is a strategy so differentiated that you can routinely buy widely marketed deals and still generate excellent risk-adjusted returns.
In real estate, you generally don't hit upon a differentiated strategy by sitting around your office cogitating. Instead, you buy an asset with potential, try some moves you think might work, see if they actually work, and course-correct on the ones that don't. Then, you apply…
I closed on a deal! Acquisition price: uh, more than I was expecting. Debt: 7.8% on 30 year. Going in cap rate, and SYOC: nada. It's a personal residence with 5 acres of hobby farm land, nestled in the foothills of the Pike National Forest. I may be moving slightly north,…
@stillwell @chrisframpton What's the status of the "Right to Remedy.." Act?
@asmartbear People who say things like this are not serious people. They're well intentioned, but they lack a firm grasp of how currency in the financial system actually works. Let me explain 👇 Something you have to keep in mind is every country faces what's called the "impossible…
@stillwell @chrisframpton Agreed. Not sure it will ever change, unf. Boobs in control…
@stillwell @chrisframpton Can tell right when that condo law passed
One of the best burgers in LA is only served for a few hours a night, and only on Sundays and Mondays. The only food on the menu is a burger and fries. The rest of the time, it’s a bar hidden behind one of the trendier Michelin-starred restaurants in town. Another unique…
#NewProfilePic - I fully intend to return to “hedge fund manager parrot” but I’m hoping this picture makes my hot takes a bit more respectable in the meantime.
#NewProfilePic - “hedge fund manager parrot, digital art”
When it comes to owning US large-cap equities, higher quality companies command a premium valuation, and the top of any simple value screen is often filled with highly asset-intensive or cyclically sensitive businesses. But this trade-off between value and quality primarily…
Tired: Check out the views from our high floors. Wired: I just rappelled down the side of the Empire State Building--which I own btw--and take my word for it, the light and air on our few remaining availabilities is world class.
super long shot here for any gigantic lurkers out there, but some potentially very large high quality midwest/southeast suburban office opps coming way bigger than we have capacity for so if anyone happens to enjoy or have the institutional trust to run into a fire, DMs
In the Dark Ages, before we had water bill monitoring, a P&L review revealed that one of our buildings’ water usage had shot up. Did a bunch of inspections, etc. to figure out what was going on, w no luck. Eventually, a neighbor informed us some tenants were running a…
Exciting news- I recently acquired 100% of Alpine Modern. We have two cafes in Boulder, Colorado and are well positioned for growth in the Rocky Mountain west and beyond. This brand has a ton of potential and we are just getting started. Excited for the journey ahead!
🇺🇸 🚀 🇺🇸 🚀
We're well on our way to 200+ locations by the end of 2024, with roughly 6X year-over-year location growth, and forecasted profitability by year end. We’ve gone from $0 to $12M+ in 28 months since launch, with an NPS of 81 (vs. Airbnb’s 38) and an industry-leading CSAT of 93.8%.
Another great looking software biz, Cadence 45% cash on cash returns L10Y, phenomenal. Prime beneficiary of custom silicon movement, along with Synopsis I am skeptical of their acquisitions, and don't love buying back shares at ~50x NTM FCF, where it's traded recently $CDNS