Jay Parsons @jayparsons
Rental housing economist, advocate & strategist, Dad x5, suffering Cowboys fan ... Rental housing is essential, misunderstood and we need more of it. linkedin.com/in/jay-parsons… Dallas, Texas Joined September 2008-
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New York City is ahead of most of the country in a lot of ways, but when it comes to apartment touring, leasing, living (as well as operations and investments), it's largely stuck in the dark ages.
Multifamily permits (T-12) versus cycle peaks are⬇️⬇️⬇️ Down 50%+ in Houston, San Fran, Seattle, Palm Beach, Philly, etc. Down 40%+ in Dallas, Boston, Denver, Tampa, DC, Nashville, Atlanta, Orlando, Minneapolis, etc. Down 25%+ in Austin, Newark, New York, Raleigh, Chicago,…
Another institutional apartment portfolio trade above perceived NAV-- this one student housing. Word on street remains that institutions are paused, but Blackstone keeps saying otherwise. How long til others follow (both sellers and buyers)?
I wonder if something is amiss with Census data on renters. Yes, way too many U.S. renters can't afford housing and we do need more affordable housing. But more than HALF paying >30% on rent? Here's why I'm skeptical the Census might be missing something: 1) Somewhere around 1/3…
BTW these are also helpful charts for those who think legislation blocking/targeting large investors will somehow make rents more affordable. May I instead suggest legalizing /supporting more housing development?
BTW these are also helpful charts for those who think legislation blocking/targeting large investors will somehow make rents more affordable. May I instead suggest legalizing /supporting more housing development?
Folks allergic to good news won't like this, so if that's you, maybe pop in a Claritin. U.S. consumer confidence continues to rebound-- jumping YoY in 12 straight months, and now up 27.9 ppts since bottoming in summer 2022, according to new data released today from the…
The rapidly changing rental affordability narrative doesn't get talked about enough. Wage growth has outpaced new lease rent growth for 16 straight months. That trend will almost certainly continue through 2024-- which would erase the entire rent>wage bump of 2021-22. That's a…
Jay Parsons @jayparsons is correct. The nonsense written about OER is staggering. I have written about OER many times and covered his points here.👇 mishtalk.com/economics/deba…
Jay Parsons @jayparsons is correct. The nonsense written about OER is staggering. I have written about OER many times and covered his points here.👇 mishtalk.com/economics/deba…
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Business trends at AvalonBay have been accelerating over the past couple months — not as much supply growth in their markets but another data point that market rent growth might be improving:
I was quite surprised to learn that debt and equity capital is returning to the apartment market, both for development and acquisition. Here is our latest survey on development financing. Thank you to @NAAhq for partnering with us on this survey.
It’s not a coincidence that housing markets where resale supply is now rising the fastest also had a new home construction boom this cycle. Any red market below saw new home construction this cycle exceed the 2004-2006 subprime peak.
@jayparsons Here's total job growth since the pandemic - that delta is ~5% between Austin/Raleigh
@jayparsons Jay, lower your standards. You can't expect the math to actually fit the storyline each time. Sometimes, you just have to make it work.
@melissasavenko @NewsLambert @CarolWalshReal1 Thanks! Great list! Here are a few more... big picture housing econ people. @JessicaLautz Deputy Chief Economist NAR @calculatedrisk The OG of independent Housing Research @jayparsons Great Rental housing takes. @KAErdmann Deep thoughts on housing; sometimes I need to read it…
Wage and salary disbursements YoY growth and quarterly annualized growth — is still really still slowing? @M_C_Klein
Household balance sheets are the best they’ve ever been, we have the largest cohort of retirees ever, and Millennials are entering their peak spending years — what is the cohort of American households with a high propensity to save?
Dear ____, Real estate fund managers: Your properties are still overvalued. Real estate fund investors: You're not alone. Capital calls are outpacing distributions 2/1 across the board. Dry powder pundits: Won't likely save values. Much of it will be used to restructure…
@jayparsons I'm a fan of your posts. I'd like to add data sets that you may already use (which is open to the public). The IRS, Dept of Treasury, Federal Reserve tracks income and where money sits at any given time. Other .gov tracks DTI and household debt. irs.gov/statistics/fil…
@benmaritz @jayparsons 33 is a bit over 30.
@jayparsons Makes no sense. Almost all private landlords require 3x income
@jayparsons You are correct. A lot is missing. Many parents are helping kids pay rent. In Fort Lauderdale it seems everyone is renting out a spare room, most don’t consider them part of the household or even require a lease.
[@opinion] We’re getting to the point where the impact of higher interest rates on housing is going to be longer-term inflationary because of the negative impact it’s having on construction/new supply: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
@jayparsons Cool chart and thanks for sharing man.
@jayparsons An idea so crazy it just might work. 😉
Key info for Madison housing. Rents are rising yet we have few institutional investors. These arguments have been red herrings. No one wants to offend the “mom and pops” but that’s who is raising rents.
Here are the top 10 markets for rent growth -- both for apartments and for single-family rentals. It's all metro areas dominated by institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity, right? Well, no, actually. These are all markets dominated by "mom and pops" and small…
Ever wonder why housing is so expensive? Housing development sales are taxed like cigarettes sales. Great points by Moses & Jay!
@moseskagan interesting point... so we tax housing development like we tax cigarettes.
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