Gina Martin Adams @GinaMartinAdams
Gina Martin Adams, CFA, CMT, is the Chief Equity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a division of Bloomberg LP, and is based in New York, NY. Manhattan, NY Joined March 2017-
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U.S. Bellwethers earning their keep relative to global peers this earnings season. Q1 YoY EPS growth forecast for BI Global Bellwethers by sector and major region below:
Large cap tech stocks multiple is only about half the peak during the internet-inflated bubble 24 years ago, in part because earnings are much stronger. Some 54.8% of tech companies in March 2000 had a trailing 12-month EPS of less than $1 -- well beyond the 4.6% now.
Copper prices in China are at 18-year highs. We’re now at 80k yuan for first time since 2006 (note the exchange rate was higher back then too)
Brazil is the most discounted equity market in the world. Global Forward P/E By Country:
It’s early yet, but all three leading industry charts appear to be turning over.
My next read. Susan is a pioneer - one of the many bold women who carved a path for generations of women in finance to follow. Can’t wait to dive into her story!
Tech multiples appear to be topping again. 28 appears to be the magic number for tech p/e.
The playbook in equities is significantly altered in the new inflation regime. Utilities high interest expense likely significantly reduces the sectors normal defensive appeal.
The S&P 500 bull is exhausted. Momentum has been fading fast, suggesting a rocky period is coming in 2Q.
Global stock correlations hit a 4-year low in March, a sign of exuberance that typically results in a pullback for the market.
With economic momentum finally in recovery, macro indicators are now confirming stocks gains. Watch Bloomberg Intelligence's Equity Market Minute 04/05/2024 - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
We released a new sector rotation model for US large caps today! The long-only backtest shows excess returns over the S&P 500 in 10 of the last 12 years. Model and methodology accessible on demand at BPAC <Go>. Latest results at BI STOX <Go>. Annualized returns below.
Since 1979, small caps have led the S&P 500 following 10 of the 11 ISM Mfg bottoms below a 47-handle, leading by an average 1,305 bps in the year after those lows. The one time RTY didn't lead was after the 1996 bottom. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/s…
@GinaMartinAdams and I will host a webinar on 4/3 at 10AM EST on our new Sector Rotation Model. bloomberg.zoom.us/webinar/regist… On 4/10, I'll be sharing my thoughts on what to watch in the 1Q earnings season with Alison Williams, Herman Chan and Kunjan Sobhani. bloomberg.zoom.us/webinar/regist…
Are stocks really “expensive”? About half of S&P 500 stocks trade at a forward P/E below their respective 2015-19 norms, and our work suggests analysts are likely still too conservative on earnings recovery prospects. % trading above prepandemic median forward PE:
@GinaMartinAdams and I will host a webinar on 4/3 at 10Am EST to go over our new Sector Rotation Model. bloomberg.zoom.us/webinar/regist… On 4/10 at 2PM, I'll discuss what I'm watching this earnings season with Alison Williams, Herman Chan, and Kunjan Sobhani. bloomberg.zoom.us/webinar/regist…
Equity risk premium is negative for the first time since 2002. Questionable what this might mean for returns, given it stayed negative throughout the 80s-90s bull market.
Large-cap energy stocks broke out of their year-to-date relative price range this week as inflation prints roiled the market. Historically, the shares and crude oil move closely in tandem, and stocks may be overdue to catch up with the commodity.
Earnings call transcript sentiment hit its highest level since mid 2021 in the 4Q earnings season, as both the sentiment of prepared remarks and answers to analyst questions on earnings calls improved significantly across all sectors except energy.
Here's the link to our full report: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/s… Likewise, see BI THEM <GO> on terminal for the data behind our work and some great thematic research!
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@GinaMartinAdams Thanks @GinMartinAdams, Enjoy your stuff!!!
after the second child it’s ’hey you!’ @mattmiller1973
The pickup in global trade is an important shift in the last few months reflecting rising manufacturing & goods demand and putting pressure on global commodity prices. Timeliest export data continue to show improving exports, with the rest of the world likely to follow.
Here's to four and many more. Happy birthday to Twain, the floofy manifestation of my soul
Copper prices in China are at 18-year highs. We’re now at 80k yuan for first time since 2006 (note the exchange rate was higher back then too)
ICYMI: Weekly ChartStorm blog post chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and… Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @topdowncharts @MarketCharts @GinaMartinAdams @dailychartbook @DuncanLamont2 @BobEUnlimited @MebFaber @Barchart @julianHjessop
.@GinaMartinAdams is really good. really great at balancing the technicals with the fundamentals. not many can do that well. unmute when she's on
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Satisfying photos for perfectionists - thread 🧵 1. Crescent Moon bridge by Yier Wang
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Very happy to find out I’ve been named on the 2024 Forbes 30 Under 30 list. Thank you so much to everyone who’s supported me along the way. None of this happens without a huge team behind me. I’m very grateful. #ForbesUnder30 forbes.com/profile/kriti-…
It’s @SamRo’s birthday and he’s spending it w us and @FTAlphaville 🥹
It’s official: year 10. @business
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𝐐: What would you say to kids striving to be you right now? Caitlin Clark and Kate Martin give their answers to 9-year-old DJ Lily Jade. 🗣️ #WFinalFour x @IowaWBB
My two brothers keeping it real here. And literally making the case for why strategists need to be experts in Behavioral Finance. It’s ALL HUMAN EMOTION.
This Is Why Bear Markets Are So Dangerous AS 354📽️youtube.com/watch?v=-h4C1u… 🎧podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/animalspi… 🎙️@michaelbatnick @awealthofcs
Left it all out there. #Hawkeyes
unrelated topic: hannah stuelke is so pretty!
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