Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU
Host Eurodollar University channel. Monetary science reborn. Putting central banks where they belong. linktr.ee/eurodollaruniv… West Palm Beach, FL Joined May 2014-
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US has a massive income mismatch problem. Take away govt xfers (which Uncle Sam is doing) what's left is so little private income that something has to give. I don't think people realize just how bad this is. It's all been covered up by govt "aid." youtu.be/nUP5SjY_o3U
The only semi-solid conclusion you can draw from Q1 US GDP weakness is that last year's "boom" was actually transitory and bought mainly by govt debt. That was never going to be sustainable and is sure wasn't inflationary. youtu.be/nUP5SjY_o3U
It's not like banks are actually buying the soft landing, either, re-risking their balance sheets. On the contrary, they're still cutting bank on CnI lending (huge cyclical clue) and even consumer loans in recent weeks. youtu.be/i3v1t292JeU
Banks drained of cash going back to March. The latest weekly decline is nearly $100 bln and is seasonally adjusted, so it isn't due to tax payments (you can see that by how cash behaves in prior years at mid-Apr). Deposits down, cash down, Republic First does down.…
The real question about Republic First is why now. Loan come due? Was it BTFP draw it couldn't pay back? Or deposit flight? If deposits, it's not higher interest from MMFs. Total deposit liabilities have plunged across all banks in April. youtu.be/i3v1t292JeU
Japanese govt knows it's pointless to conduct interventions which is why they rarely happen. Why else did they make a huge stink at 152 as if going below was the end of the world only to sit and watch as it plunged to 160. They baited themselves. youtu.be/oF6C-OCgs8c
Japanese govt finally decided they had enough of the yen making fools of their constant threats. So, MoF intervenes only to be a made a bigger fool. Got to keep feeding the media its myths about govt "authority." youtu.be/oF6C-OCgs8c
Does Republic First partly answer who was desperate for funding on the last day the BTFP was taking loans? There was $3.4 billion increase. If it was Republic First, it couldn't only have been Republic First (not big enough). Biggest unresolved issue w/BTFP is how many banks…
Any bank with both words “First” and “Republic” in its name is immediately fair game. Remember it was First Republic last year which closed the prior chapter on bank failures only to have the latest one open with Republic First.
Banks have been bleeding cash, too. There was the typical seasonal drain at quarter-end, but it never got rebuilt as deposits fled in April. Forced sales happening?
Nearly $200 bln in deposit outflows the last three weeks. That's not higher rates, it's not like Tbills yields have suddenly surged offering higher MMF potential returns. Were banks selling USTs to meet the deposit drains?
Cash drain. Deposit drain. Small bank in Philly goes down, becoming the first of 2024. It's not this one bank, how many others there might be. Basically, these banks went nuts in '21 confusing the CPI for a recovery. Now it's time to clean up. fdic.gov/news/press-rel…
It’s easy to sit back and scan the headlines to get a take on the economy, but the vast majority just spit out the same conventional takes shaped by policymakers and politicians with something else in mind. You have to take a broad and careful look at the situation, gathering…
What energy use tells us about the past couple years is...no boom. Not even close. It's all a price illusion, one whose effects are fading slowly. What's emerging from behind the veil of the CPI is what the Saudis already know. youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
It's another huge "coincidence" that energy use radically changed after August 2007 just like jobs, GDP, and everything else. Again, if economy is growing you use more energy regardless of price. If energy use isn't growing, then there is no economic growth. PERIOD.…
Modern economies need energy which leads to a very simple rule: growing economy means growing demand for oil, gasoline, electricity. If you see demand and use of oil, gasoline, electricity suddenly drop, that's not because of the price it's because of the economy.…
The funny thing is, we know for a fact the economy in the US is really struggling. There's an unassailable way to tell the real state of the system. It's just no one will like what it shows. youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
One big reason why disinflation seems to be taking so long is because Uncle Sam is subsidizing the price changes with massive transfers, the same price changes the initial transfers largely caused. Xfers still aren't enough for an actual recovery. youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
GDP deflator was pushed up solely by PCE services. Some of it was the usual housing/rent nonsense (not real). Most of it was in two categories, starting w/financial services which means mainly insurance costs. That's neither inflation nor inflationary. youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
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727K Followers 304 Following Welcome! Find us weekdays 10:30pm on BBC Two with @KirstyWark, @vicderbyshire & @faisalislam, or anytime on Facebook and YouTube https://t.co/PYmstwQbyP@JeffSnider_EDU The rating agencies had SVB as investment grade when it went down while 16/17 equity analysts had a "buy." Ratings agencies have no proactive insights and are reactive entities just like the GFC. CRE is idiosyncratic, making it tough to predict how events evolve.
@JeffSnider_EDU The history really helps to put things in perspective.
@JeffSnider_EDU Its different than your regular material, but it was still interesting
SOUNDS FAMILIAR: an entire sector makes the same mistake of economic calculation at the same time. In free markets this doesn’t occur. But when interest rates are distorted, the key input into any financial model leads to a model output saying “yes invest” but it’s actually wrong
🚨 Banking system update🚨 🧵👇 We're back discussing regional banks in the US, not because of rate hikes as suggested last year, but due to commercial real estate. The speculative bubble fueled by the government in 2021-2022 is now bursting, and it seems taxpayers might once…
@JeffSnider_EDU has been on a roll lately, and he hit it out of the park (and over the rope) with @hendry_hugh on this latest episode. A lot of times we're off in the bramches and leaves but this addressed the trunk. With shout out to @EmilKalinowski. pca.st/episode/ca8b38…
@JeffSnider_EDU This is awesome. Recently became a member and slowly been catching up with classroom videos. By far the best subscription to understand how the system works. The conversations are the cherry on top
My new interview with the inimitable @JeffSnider_EDU. Probably the best deconstruction of the Long-Term Capital Management crisis and why it still resonates today. We cover the history while Jeff puts it in the proper global monetary context. eurodollar.university/conversations/…
Educational post a out one of the most important aspects of economics and investing. Must read
What The Yield Curve is Predicting Right Now 🧵👇 First some misconceptions about the yield curve There is a misconception that yield curves are only useful when they invert, and only because inversions equal recession. Bond and money curves are exceptionally helpful in…
Another good piece from Jeff Snider.👇👇
🚨Is The Yield Curve Wrong?🚨 IMPORTANT THREAD 🧵👇 People often expect financial crises to be dramatic, like the 2008 Lehman collapse. But sometimes, big problems don’t make a big scene. They’re quieter but still serious. It's not just about predicting another big crash. The…
@JeffSnider_EDU Jeff, you are absolutely correct. We didn't hear a peep about Black Friday. Hasbro is the proverbial canary because right now these should be boom times. Is China's ind. output figure really reliable when ASEAN and US imports of China's goods down 25% and youth unem. above 22%?
@JeffSnider_EDU Blk friday has become pretty lame. Less deals, waaay less Walmart brawls- yawn
@JeffSnider_AIP This video was spot on the data is on point!!!
@JeffSnider_AIP Jeff, why don’t you post your videos here too?
Fedwire offline for several hours (Wed), dealers intraday liquidity gets interrupted, pushing back settlement into the evening, how much daylight overdrafts accumulate and spill over? Apparently quite a lot, given today's (Thurs) trading. See: August 1990
So you know how crypto exchanges tend to become inaccessible on days with very big crypto sell-off days? Just noting today's yield spike in the context of yesterday's US Treasury settlement infrastructure being down... Here's the UST 5Y.
Looking forward to discussing repos and COVID-19's impact with @JeffSnider_AIP go2ct.pro/repos #futures #trading
INVITE: Wednesday, April 15th @ 4:30 PM Eastern US time, honored to host @JeffSnider_AIP of Alhambra Investments to explain the repo markets and his views on COVID-19 & how things look going forward Please join: go2ct.pro/repos #ES_F #trading #futures
@chigrl If any of you haven’t yet I suggest you listen to @MacroVoices EuroDollar University where @JeffSnider_AIP, expert historian on the subject, explains in great detail. Subscribe to get the charts. itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/mac…