Francois Trahan, M²SD @FrancoisTrahan
Founder of the @macroinstitute and Trahan Macro Research. Publishing sell-side research for 25+ years. macrospecialistdesignation.com Joined November 2022-
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"GDP reports aren’t usually market-movers, but last Thursday’s print was an exception ... “stagflation” talks swirled, but this week’s chart should tell you it's the wrong word to describe the U.S. economy." @bnick41 has more in this week's Macro Monday: themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/macro-monday…
There are some interesting dynamics at play within equity leadership ... never a great sign when trucking stocks are struggling ... meanwhile, the two biggest publicly traded pawn shops are near highs. Hmmm. Happy Sunday. FT
Two thoughts on the GDP report, one of which I've seen covered elsewhere but is worth reiterating, the other of which I haven't seen mentioned this morning. First, final sales to private domestic purchasers were solid at 3.1%. Consumption and investment growth continue apace.
Wow, that is a steep adjustment in student loan rates. This had a 2-handle back in 2020 and is now set at 6.61% for the year ... I guess they call it "higher" education for a reason. FT
We spend a lot of time talking about the U.S. economy and markets, but it's important to spend some looking at the global backdrop. Unfortunately, things don't look any better overseas...
We spend a lot of time talking about the U.S. economy and markets, but it's important to spend some looking at the global backdrop. Unfortunately, things don't look any better overseas...
Could the world economy save us? Unlikely. Most of the rest of the world is in worse shape than the U.S. Japan, UK, Eurozone, and China have all entered recession territory or are close to it. Plus, according to path set by the USD, World GDP growth still has downside ahead. 🧵
Maybe I am dense and it's as simple as this?! Return of inflation is starting to weigh on market multiples ... Friday will be interesting when we get an additional data point for core inflation. Hmmmm.
With inflation still a hot topic, it's a good time to highlight two of the most misunderstood assets in portfolios: Gold and TIPS. Both are widely regarded as inflation hedges, but the truth is more nuanced. Check out this week's Macro Monday for more: themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/macro-monday…
Brett Caughran @FundamentEdge
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Link to site and working paper. philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-da…
This is super interesting. It's from the Philly Fed and tracks "the number of people that switch from one job and immediately land another". Best quote from the article was "the dwindling number of job switchers ... suggests that workers are insecure about their job prospects".
"GDP reports aren’t usually market-movers, but last Thursday’s print was an exception ... “stagflation” talks swirled, but this week’s chart should tell you it's the wrong word to describe the U.S. economy." @bnick41 has more in this week's Macro Monday: themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/macro-monday…
A lot of the goods and services currently showing the highest rate of inflation are not traded in open markets. Rather, they are administered or estimated via surveys or statistical methods. Are these going to respond to another few months of "higher for longer"? Seems doubtful.
Second, there was a wide gap last quarter between market-based inflation and overall inflation. The PCE Price Index rose at a 3.4% rate in Q1, but market-based prices rose at only a 2.8% rate. There's a similar gap for core prices.
Two thoughts on the GDP report, one of which I've seen covered elsewhere but is worth reiterating, the other of which I haven't seen mentioned this morning. First, final sales to private domestic purchasers were solid at 3.1%. Consumption and investment growth continue apace.
Could the world economy save us? Unlikely. Most of the rest of the world is in worse shape than the U.S. Japan, UK, Eurozone, and China have all entered recession territory or are close to it. Plus, according to path set by the USD, World GDP growth still has downside ahead. 🧵
With inflation still a hot topic, it's a good time to highlight two of the most misunderstood assets in portfolios: Gold and TIPS. Both are widely regarded as inflation hedges, but the truth is more nuanced. Check out this week's Macro Monday for more: themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/macro-monday…
It’s almost as if fictitious/interpolated/administered prices are keeping PCE and CPI elevated while prices subject to market forces are falling or, at least, in disinflation.
$BX From the Blackstone earnings call - "“In terms of inflation, despite the recent U.S. CPI readings, we're seeing decelerating wage growth and minimal input cost increases across many of our companies. In real estate, we see shelter costs moderating, contrary to government…
The “soft” components of the NFIB Small Business survey are prone to political partisanship and can safely be ignored. But the drop in the harder components should worry bulls.
Headline weakness for NFIB today *understates* the concerning picture of the US econ from small biz. Hard data measures, which are generally align pretty well with growth conditions, are decelerating quickly. Adding concern, inflation indications are picking up again. Thread.
WATCH: @bnick41 joined the @CharlesSchwab Network to discuss the Fed's fight against inflation. "If the Fed wants to stall the recession or make it a little less painful they need to start layering in some of those rate cuts now." schwabnetwork.com/video/data-dep…
The hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI release was a market showstopper. Headline and core inflation came in at 0.4% for the month, and the annual rate for headline accelerated to 3.5%. What does that mean for equities? Find out in this week's Macro Monday: themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/macro-monday…
"If the US conducts two surveys to estimate the most watched economic indicator in the world, they should at least tell the same story, right? Apparently, that’s too much to ask." @bnick41 discusses diverging employment data in this week's Macro Monday. themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/macro-monday…
The Dallas Fed Weekly Index is not only great at forecasting GDP but guess what else it does for us oil bros & bro-ettes? Give @FrancoisTrahan a follow! One of the best macro minds in the biz.
This is the Weekly Economic Index published by the Dallas Fed. It's meant to be a real-time gauge of the economy. When I look at the components it's not bad at all. Now this is weekly, so it's going to be volatile... the 13-week average is what seems to provide the most insight.
@FrancoisTrahan Don’t forget the Fed almost raised rates in August 2008…
No bueno. Which means "not bueno."
Hiring trends have changed. The NFIB Plans to Hire series is back to levels not seen in 10 years, and the JOLTS Private Hire Rate is behaving similarly. These are leading indicators of employment, and they are painting a very different picture for the second half of 2024.
One reason we continue to see impressive payroll growth is that layoffs have stayed relatively rare (for now) as hiring has slowed.
Hiring trends have changed. The NFIB Plans to Hire series is back to levels not seen in 10 years, and the JOLTS Private Hire Rate is behaving similarly. These are leading indicators of employment, and they are painting a very different picture for the second half of 2024.
Where are we at in the business cycle? Confused how to build a portfolio during this period of high economic uncertainty? Have no fear. @bnick41 laid out our philosophies for building a macro-neutral portfolio during his recent @business appearance. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/there-is…
We recently published a report outlining the 10 historical facts every investor must confront if they are currently bullish. There's a lot that would need to be "different this time" to avoid a peak in equity markets. Let's hear from the bulls, why do these facts not matter?
ICYMI: Weekly ChartStorm blog post chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and… Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @topdowncharts @MikeZaccardi @ISABELNET_SA @albertedwards99 @SoberLook @sentimentrader @GameofTrades_ @JeffWeniger @dailychartbook @FrancoisTrahan
When I first looked at this chart, I thought there was a data error in the underlying spreadsheet, but it turns out we really are that far off the map of the traditional relationship between Unit Labor Costs and Core CPI.
Trends for United States
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