Greg @GS_CapSF

Equity Analyst + Macro Trader, hobby economist & humble market student. marginofsafetyblog.substack.com Either SF or NY Joined August 2014

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Greg @GS_CapSF

3 hours ago

@hicasamadim @ManslifeX Lol 😂

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People keep pointing out the unprecedented level of investment in AI and ignore the fact the frontier labs that get to recursive self-improvement first will pull away from the competition. Essentially the ‘fast take-off’ scenario to AGI is unfolding.

Anthropic @AnthropicAI

13 hours ago

Our internal data shows Claude is accelerating AI development—a possible path to recursive self-improvement, or AI autonomously building a more capable successor. It’s happening faster than we thought, and the implications deserve greater attention. anthropic.com/institute/recu…

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Greg @GS_CapSF

12 hours ago

You think there’s not tons of extremely intelligent people at the hyperscalers, frontier labs, and rest of the ecosystem looking at the economics on a granular level? The labs have essentially said each new model is profitable from an NPV standpoint but training the next model cost so much they might not be profitable overall. The hyperscalers have extremely high margins near 40% on their compute and yet we’re expected to believe all of a sudden this is not a profitable venture. The CEOs of these companies are literally telling you these are high margin businesses, especially once you attach software and services to it.

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Greg @GS_CapSF

14 hours ago

@johnarnold Lower income tax is a great idea

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Greg @GS_CapSF

15 hours ago

Let’s take an example. Guy starts a tech company, it’s successful and he hires a lot of people who help scale the business, it’s now worth $2 billion on paper, and the founder is worth $1 billion since he owns 50% of the equity. The company is private so there’s no liquidity for his shares. His liquid net worth is only $2 million. Now he gets hit with the wealth tax of 2%. He owes $20 million he doesn’t have. He has a couple choices: 1) borrow from banks with a high probability he’ll potentially go bankrupt 2) sell shares to VCs but he loses control of his company 3) moves the company out of that jurisdiction and a bunch of employees lose their jobs. There’s no good outcome here.

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Greg @GS_CapSF

15 hours ago

@patrick_oshag He just raised prices a ton. I remember getting Ubers for $8 around the city, now it’s $18-$30

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Greg @GS_CapSF

15 hours ago

@FloraLuzz_ If you actually care about this country then you stay and be the change you want to see. Running away is a child like response.

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Greg @GS_CapSF

a day ago

@SenSanders Have you tried donating one of your 3 houses??

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Greg @GS_CapSF

a day ago

@NancyMace No, young families shouldn’t pay property taxes

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Greg @GS_CapSF

a day ago

@Jason Haha, it’s always an ‘edge case’ or the environment is the problem….never the tech in the car

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Greg @GS_CapSF

2 days ago

@pmarca @AOC Maybe abolish food all together…lot of water use there

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Greg @GS_CapSF

2 days ago

@MartinShkreli @StanphylCap Yikes, guy blocked me for pointing out his sub-par analysis on ‘normalized’ for $MU . Now I just realize that he’s been short $MU and $SOXX while I’ve been long. He’s risking 5 to make 1 while I’m risking 1 to make 5.

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Greg @GS_CapSF

3 days ago

There’s so much demand for high quality paper out there, you could sell $80 Billion of Google bonds pretty easily. With the stock up so much it’s a smart move to use equity. Dilution of ~1.7%. Alternative is raise debt and $5B in annual interest. $5B buys a lot of TPUs. People have this stigma with raising equity but the best capital allocators in history raise equity when their stock is high, buyback stock when it’s low, and don’t over leverage the B/S.

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Greg @GS_CapSF

3 days ago

@FinanceJack44 The logic is they are using a high share price to raise an incredible amount of money. Using debt for $80 billion is $5 billion hole in interest every year.

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SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_

3 days ago

The recent Ornn H100 index drop to $2.63 (-7.72%) is confusing. But mostly because it's a misleading index. Our H100 hourly has been in a $2.70–$3.01 band for 146 straight days. Ornn's last month alone: $1.80 → $3.22 → $2.63. Why? OCPI is built only from printed transactions. But H100 on-demand has been sold out across our coverage for months. No continuous spot tape exists. What's left is a thin residual of bilateral trades from a narrow contributor set. Small N gets pushed around easily.

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Greg @GS_CapSF

3 days ago

@Jesse_Livermore The answer to all these questions is Gary is a clown who has been saying it’s doomed for 4 years

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Greg @GS_CapSF

3 days ago

@BernieSanders The oligarchs are corrupt politicians funneling tax payer money to themselves and cronies like Bernie here. Don’t fall for this socialist rhetoric. Here is Bernie and AOC flying private on your dime x.com/akafaceus/stat…