Greg Ip @greg_ip
Chief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal. A fox, not a hedgehog. Sign up for our newsletter here: https://t.co/ngTGbm0DxE On Threadds at gregip98 gregip.com Washington, D.C. Joined January 2011-
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Great perspective from @greg_ip. US GDP, student loans, the dollar, natural gas exports, steel tariffs, the 1985 Plaza Accords... Few articulate the connections across sectors, assets, countries, and history like he does. wsj.com/economy/global…
So I think @greg_ip has a point. The US economy -- and the global economy -- need a bit more balance. And an ever stronger dollar doesn't help. 8/8 wsj.com/economy/global… wsj.com/economy/global…
Technofeudalism, so good!
Technofeudalism, so good!
Fact check: no it doesn't.
@greg_ip Easily the hardest part of the job at CEA.
Try to make the producer price index seem important without saying the words producer price index.
Try to make the producer price index seem important without saying the words producer price index.
"Subsidies alone won’t guarantee a sustainable industry. Fabs need customers, a supply chain and, above all, a skilled, specialized workforce." - @greg_ip America’s Chip Renaissance Needs Workers wsj.com/tech/americas-…
The "excess" core CPI inflation right now is much less broad than what we saw in 2022. In 2022, inflationary pressures hit many categories. In contrast, right now, only two are stronger than we'd expect under 2% PCE pre-pandemic: housing--the lion's share--and auto insurance.
My story for what has happened to inflation and what it means going forward. TL;DR: Underlying inflation fell from 4.0-4.5% to 2.5-3.0% as labor markets loosened (through openings down not unemployment up). Last mile will be much harder than to date. A shortish 🧵
Critical to add a discussion of macroeconomics back to the discussion of Chinese commercial policies and practices. Those policies often spillover globally in powerful ways in part because of China's size, and in part because of China's unbalanced domestic economy 2/2…
Personally, I think Secretary Yellen's trip to China was a clear success -- not because of any short-term "deliverables" but rather because she (correctly) framed the nature of the challenge (from the FT) 1/2
I don't even remember ever having an election in April
I don't even remember ever having an election in April
Core CPI coming in very hot for the third month in the row. The numbers are not kind to the thesis that January was a seasonal anomaly. 12 months: 3.5% 6 months: 3.2% 3 months: 4.6% 1 month: 4.6%
Professional news—psyched to join the excellent folks at EIG! Today is my first day, assuming I can find the office and defeat the battalion of Sardaukar that guards it. Can’t wait to get started.
Professional news—psyched to join the excellent folks at EIG! Today is my first day, assuming I can find the office and defeat the battalion of Sardaukar that guards it. Can’t wait to get started.
I’m thrilled to announce that @CardiffGarcia is joining @InnovateEconomy as Editorial Director—and coming with him is The New Bazaar podcast! Cardiff’s remarkable talent for exploring economic trends and ideas will add exciting dimensions to EIG’s work.⬇️ eig.org/eig-welcomes-c…
Tesla reap what it sow Tesla has lost a few hundred billion in market cap YTD. Plenty of that can be attributed to Chinese competition. BYD replaced Tesla as the world’s biggest EV company at the end of last year. I say Tesla essentially groom its competitors to outcompete…
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409K Followers 93 Following The latest headlines from Nikkei Asia. Sign up for our newsletters: https://t.co/qUtJViCHmb Follow our journalists here: https://t.co/Y1vHImzwy1Low 3M inflation in 2023 H2 gave a false signal of where trend was. Likewise, *for now* we should take the firm Q1 with a grain of salt. A simple YY, or a more sophisticated approach that filters out typical noise, yield similar answers: 2.8-2.9%, so ~ 2 1/2-3% w/ upward bias.
@greg_ip Consequence of some imbalances (those that have pushed up US rates), cause of others (low level of exports, fairly high trade deficit even without net oil imports)
Every day a new deadweight loss triangle gets its wings
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KISHIDA TELLS U.S. CONGRESS 'UKRAINE OF TODAY MAY BE EAST ASIA OF TOMORROW'
Would be funny if the Fed cut just once, at the September meeting, much to the chagrin of hawks, doves, and “they can’t cut right before the election” truthers alike.
the problem is that 1% of the country is controlling 99% of the eclipse's totality
good recall .. although Fed's PCE projection after CPI and PPI is usually pretty good
Feb Core PCE at 0.26% m/m I think qualifies as the "well below" 0.3% that Powell predicted at his last presser - and below consensus. Fed staff don't predict the future much better than anyone else, but they're pretty good at predicting the present.
@greg_ip @jasonfurman I interpreted both as making positive analyses on price effects, not necessarily normative. And don't know what they think about VATS. For example, Mulligan supports the tariff! He just thinks there are price increases and (I suppose) they're worth it. washingtonpost.com/business/2024/…
@michael_stumo @greg_ip Much of economics studies the second best, analyzing when it does and doesn’t make sense to layer existing distortions on the pre-existing ones. I doubt this is a case where it makes sense but I would be curious to hear what argument you have in mind.
@KrishnaMemani @greg_ip @RaphaelBostic @AtlantaFed This is the big question now "real rates are definitely too high right now." Are they? By which metrics? The counter argument is, if rates are "too high," why is the labor market still solid? etc
@Kathleen_Hays @greg_ip @RaphaelBostic @AtlantaFed Taylor rule
The CEA dedicates Chapter 1 of the 2024 Economic Report of the President to Dr. Bill Spriggs and his lifelong efforts to promote economic justice for all. The CEA hopes the chapter reflects his view: “Full employment should mean full employment for all; not some.” 1/
Finally getting a chance to watch Fed Chair Powell's presser from last week. The way I just cackled when he said, "People do dissent. It's something that happens. Life goes on." 😂
Twitter’s feedback to BLS on CPI weights: Replace the existing system with an index based on just two items. Bananas, weight 0%. Fast food delivered to your door, 100%.
This column is correct but what Greg calls "state capitalism" really should be called corporatism or simply statism. @greg_ip wsj.com/economy/americ… via @WSJ
If Washington was truly serious about killing TiKTok it could just encourage Boomers to join, make it as cool as Facebook, force teens to go elsewhere.
Pretty clear that they’re looking through the hot Jan/Feb inflation data (for now).
Powell "progress on inflation has continued ..." NOT progress has slowed/stalled/plateaued.
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