Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. For speaking engagements, please contact me at [email protected] mpettis.com Beijing Joined October 2017-
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Imagine supporting this while also claiming that the current account deficit is too wide...
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@michaelxpettis This must be extraordinarily hard to study. After all, while public debt levels MIGHT be negative for economic growth, they'll likely only be negative once they can't grow anymore - WHILE they're growing, even from high levels, they're likely positive! After all, large and…
Great thread
1/10 Interesting study suggesting that there is no evidence that higher public debt levels are associated with lower economic growth. I am not especially surprised because there are so many different conditions under which debt can emerge.
@shauntandon @Dimi A truly good advance team would’ve asked @michaelxpettis for guidance on the Chinese rock scene.
@michaelxpettis Excellent Thread Michael Sir. As Mike Milken noted , " For some companies, even a dollar of debt is too much. This was as true for some airline, aerospace and technology companies of the late 1960s as it was of telecommunications, networking and Internet companies of the late…
@Brad_Setser Your twitter threads (and @michaelxpettis’s) are way more interesting and useful than all readings I had for international trade today and finance
@michaelxpettis point below applies to ALL bubbles. The entire economic system, not just the market, moves in response to the fevered demands of the crowd. It's not if there will be an overreaction but in how many ways.
6/7 That is why bubbles have huge systemic impacts when they inflate and, even more, when they deflate. They force the entire economic system to change its behavior in ways that automatically reinforce the direction of prices, both on the way up and on the way down.
Now is the time to recommend the important book, Klein, Matthew C., and Michael Pettis. 2021. Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
1/3 The problem isn't Chinese "overcapacity", @M_C_Klein argues in his latest piece for The Overshoot, but rather Chinese underconsumption, which is itself largely a consequence of the low share Chinese workers retain of what they produce. theovershoot.co/p/chinese-over…
Which would imply that the rest of the world just competes via more soft budget constraints. Maybe that’s right but that implies the same issues that critics of trade barriers implicitly bring up.
@michaelxpettis @M_C_Klein If the overcapacity is the result of the transfers from ordinary households to business which incentivises increased production but at the cost of reduced domestic demand then they are the two sides of the same problem.
@Beursstrategie @SRoach_econ @michaelxpettis Yes, I’m aware of it -- @michaelxpettis (must-read) #book "The Great Rebalancing" @PrincetonUPress (2014)
During a week of meetings in DC concern over Chinese "overcapacity" was a clear theme. This excellent thread by @michaelxpettis helps define the debate.
1/15 Foreign ministry spokesperson Li Jian says that the U.S. "overcapacity" narrative is a very blunt US policy tool whose purpose is to undermine Chinese industry. He isn't completely wrong: there is a lot of confusion over what "overcapacity" means. english.news.cn/20240420/3e344…
Helpful thread by @michaelxpettis, but this is what you really need to know:
7/15 They also mean that the rest of the world must absorb China's weak domestic demand and its excess savings. Without these surpluses, Chinese domination of certain sectors would simply mean that China is producing for the world goods in which it has comparative advantage.
I think Mike Pettis essentially answered the questions but if I might add, while you can have comp adv in specific sectors, because of costs or technology, overcapacity is endemic to China’s econ dev model 1/3
When is overcapacity just comparative advantage playing out and does it matter where the CA came from?
@WarrenPies @HydrosMarkets @wbmosler @M_C_Klein @michaelxpettis would love to have similar forum with you as where we differ we would use useful clear discussion with good odds we would find common ground. redid my new homes stuff based on your observation of swing to multi from single, for example
@michaelxpettis Michael I wrote a piece that you might be interested in that talks about the tough decisions each major CB faces. I cited your reference below and wonder how China will restore consumer confidence without reflating RE? open.substack.com/pub/urbankaobo…
And two days after #China announced a hard-budgeted +5% GDP growth #USA president #Biden proposed a 25% (triple present tax) tariff on Beijing’s steel and aluminium exports to save metal works jobs at home. What next from the 2 capitals?
1/5 Chinese GDP grew by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, well above expectations, reinforcing concerns that GDP growth in China means something quite different than GDP growth in economies that operate under hard-budget constraints. caixinglobal.com/2024-04-16/chi…
Important thread. We do not have "free trade". We have beggar-my-neighbour protectionism.
1/6 This NYT article shows just how confused many economists continue to be about trade. They worry that because in recent years a few economies have been implementing trade and industrial policies, this means an end to free trade and free markets. nytimes.com/2024/04/17/bus…
NEW POST: If public debt is a problem, solving it sustainably requires a reduction in inequality Today's post draws on some of the ideas contained in @michaelxpettis and @M_C_Klein's excellent book Trade Wars are Class Wars. peofdev.wordpress.com/2024/04/17/if-…
When your "competitive advantage" is being unable to spend money 🙃
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