Adam Posen @AdamPosen
President, @PIIE. Globalist. Former central banker. Political economy with a policy purpose. Now also on bluer skies adamposen @ .social piie.com Washington, DC Joined March 2013-
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ꜱᴜᴘʀᴇᴍᴇ ᴄᴏᴜʀᴛ ᴏʀᴅᴇʀꜱ ʀᴇᴠɪᴇᴡ ᴏꜰ ᴋɪɴɢ ɢᴇᴏʀɢᴇ ɪɪɪ'ꜱ ꜱᴜᴘᴘᴏꜱᴇᴅ "ɪɴᴊᴜʀɪᴇꜱ ᴀɴᴅ ᴜꜱᴜʀᴘᴀᴛɪᴏɴꜱ" ɪɴ ᴅᴇᴄʟᴀʀᴀᴛɪᴏɴ ᴏꜰ ɪɴᴅᴇᴘᴇɴᴅᴇɴᴄᴇ 𝘈𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘰 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘳 "𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘯 𝘍𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘛𝘺𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘴"
.@EmmanuelMacron warned today that the European Union and the European model of civilisation could “die” unless steps were taken in the next 5 years to create a European “power” which protected itself from Russian military aggression & Chinese & American protectionism. Thread 1/
Does Trade Reform Promote Economic Growth? A Review of Recent Evidence academic.oup.com/wbro/article-a…
🎧 I learn much from @TheAtlantic's @DKThomp -- an especially curious and thoughtful journo. This interview with Ravi Agrawal, the editor-in-chief of @ForeignPolicy magazine, was 💯 theringer.com/2024/4/23/2413… @RaviReports #India #Modi #NarendraModi #gujarat2002 @ringer #HumanRights
You want to speed the global transition to net zero? Innovate zero carbon approaches to be cheap. Don't use the pittance we provide in aid to somewhat incentivize minorly faster adoption of marginally cost-effective lower-carbon options in upper-middle income countries.
You want to speed the global transition to net zero? Innovate zero carbon approaches to be cheap. Don't use the pittance we provide in aid to somewhat incentivize minorly faster adoption of marginally cost-effective lower-carbon options in upper-middle income countries.
The Dobbs decision led to a sharp rise in women deciding that if they’re not allowed to control their fertility, they'll eliminate it. economist.com/graphic-detail…
Warming is global; it’s economic impacts aren’t @voxeu 👉 land in the colder northern latitudes is abundant & mostly unused; humanity could adapt to the economic consequences of climate change by moving economic activity to Canada & Russia 🔗 cepr.org/voxeu/columns/… cc:…
🚨 Excited to announce we have launched the Macro Musebot! 🚨 Powered by insights from 400+ episodes of the Macro Musings podcast, this AI is your personal guide to the world of macroeconomics, monetary policy, and all our past guests! (1/n) ai.macromusings.org
The surge in entrepreneurship and startups under Biden has been one of the great untold stories about the economy. Today's FTC noncompete ban is going to help sustain it. americanprogress.org/article/entrep…
The surge in entrepreneurship and startups under Biden has been one of the great untold stories about the economy. Today's FTC noncompete ban is going to help sustain it. americanprogress.org/article/entrep… https://t.co/NFNuP7xfvX
This x100 @alanbeattie The discretionary powers of the US federal agencies and the White House, for good and ill, are pretty extraordinary. Subject to arbitrary partisan "judicial" review, of course.
This x100 @alanbeattie The discretionary powers of the US federal agencies and the White House, for good and ill, are pretty extraordinary. Subject to arbitrary partisan "judicial" review, of course.
Is the ER depreciation-exports link broken? 👉new evidence @voxeu ➡️since 2010, total machinery exports are less sensitive to exchange rates 🔗 cepr.org/voxeu/columns/… cc: @cepr_org @RIETIenglish @alanbeattie @BJavorcik
Brilliant piece. Encapsulates so much of what has gone wrong and it just at Boeing. Well worth a read. Boeing and the Dark Age of American Manufacturing - The Atlantic theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This experience of 'genocidal captivity ', and its aftermath, is explored in our latest exhibition. It shows the captivity and it effects do not end once the captive slips out of the door... bit.ly/49iVvYi
Chinese underconsumption is not due to low share of labor compensation (US 60%, CN 59%—FRED), @M_C_Klein. Rather it is due to extremely high HH savings rate (US 3%—FRED, China 34%— mckinsey.com/cn/our-insight…). The reason appears largely to be an anthropological response to the…
Chinese underconsumption is not due to low share of labor compensation (US 60%, CN 59%—FRED), @M_C_Klein. Rather it is due to extremely high HH savings rate (US 3%—FRED, China 34%— mckinsey.com/cn/our-insight…). The reason appears largely to be an anthropological response to the… https://t.co/H2NkP1x5G1
Time, like the Family Circus, is a flat circle
@SMFthinktank @aveek18 @ndrlee My conclusions: what would a pro-growth, pro-worker immigration policy look like?
"That America’s leaders are committed to preventing another China shock is commendable. But going too far in the other direction could produce a different kind of avoidable disaster," Rogé Karma writes: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
From the brilliant @m_clem: At the US-Mexico border, an uptick in lawful immigration pathways => fewer unlawful entries in following months piie.com/blogs/realtime…
Not sure everyone understands that Trump/Lighthizer Sec 301 “China” tariffs were explicitly designed to HARM US manufacturing workers. @PIIE @AdamPosen piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
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231K Followers 302 Following The Empire is gone | Our shitposting is not | 24k subs on YouTube. https://t.co/HQ6Ax4NCQC
Hongshen Zhu @HongshenZhu
3K Followers 766 Following Global China Postdoctoral Fellow @Uva_EAC. PhD @DukePoliSci. Previously @CsccPenn. Chinese bureaucracy, authoritarian politics, and political economy.Rare privilege to see a restored 1949 Bill Phillips Moniac machine in action - only 2 working versions in the world
The essay—in many ways a condensed and updated version of @CatoInstitute's 2018 policy analysis "The Jones Act: A Burden America Can No Longer Bear"—is now online: milkenreview.org/articles/prote… Hope everyone can give it a read.
Last year @MilkenReview invited me to write a 4,000-word essay about the Jones Act. Pleased to announce it has now been published as part of the Q2 2024 issue. Will post a link when it goes online.
Does Trade Reform Promote Economic Growth? A Review of Recent Evidence academic.oup.com/wbro/article-a…
How the US became a net exporter of manufactured goods in the 1890s . . . A mesmerizingly beautiful graphic from @LDJEconomics that illustrates the point of the paper: jstor.org/stable/3211586
Trying to write something about @D_A_Irwin piece " “Explaining America's Surge in Manufactured Exports, 1880-1913," the central role played by the Mesabi Range, and the creation of US Steel. I just keep staring at this:
@AdamPosen The big revelation to me was the Defense Production Act, which apparently allows the federal government to run an autarkic command economy on a whim.
Chinese underconsumption is not due to low share of labor compensation (US 60%, CN 59%—FRED), @M_C_Klein. Rather it is due to extremely high HH savings rate (US 3%—FRED, China 34%— mckinsey.com/cn/our-insight…). The reason appears largely to be an anthropological response to the…
1/3 The problem isn't Chinese "overcapacity", @M_C_Klein argues in his latest piece for The Overshoot, but rather Chinese underconsumption, which is itself largely a consequence of the low share Chinese workers retain of what they produce. theovershoot.co/p/chinese-over…
@PIIE @GitaGopinath @IMFNews @KGeorgieva And @AdamPosen's conversation with @GitaGopinath in the concluding session from Wednesday 4-17-24 also nicely clipped and accessible in @PIIE's youtube channel. Thank you for the conversation, the great points made and esp for clipping the video! 🙏 youtu.be/5sM7pNLVsI4
@PIIE @IMFNews @KGeorgieva @sguriev @GitaGopinath Adam Posen @AdamPosen, Peterson Institute for International Economics' President, set the stage, during the @PIIE & the International Monetary Fund @IMFNews Conference on "Rethinking economic policy" in Washington DC. #EconTwitter #AdamPosen #PIIE #IMF #RethinkingEconomicPolicy
I would really like to believe this but the median '68 SDS member now runs a facebook group protesting new housing
Presumably the students at elite universities engaged in prolonged protests over Gaza will later go on to make up a significant part of the U.S. elite. Accordingly in a generation it can be expected U.S.-Israel relationship is unlikely to be as lopsidedly hostile to Palestinians.
If we had never passed immigration restrictions in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, there would already be close to a billion Americans and these geopolitical debates would be ~moot.
The demographic challenges for the West are just as real as they are for the PRC. But the West has an asymmetric advantage: the world’s best & brightest want to move here—bringing their groundbreaking ideas with them. The trillion dollar question is when do we double down on…
Mike Johnson’s road to Damascus on Ukraine is biggest positive shock in months
@BaldwinRE @IMD_Bschool @adam_tooze @AdamPosen @OECDtrade @TradeDiversion @TradeEconomista @snlester @SimonEvenett @alanbeattie @sdonnan @SoumayaKeynes @jdportes At @OECDtrade we are looking into the same questions (issuu.com/oecd.publishin…) and are watching inflation closely. Once you move to an analysis in constant prices, you see no global trend towards deglobalization 👇 as you, @BaldwinRE also pointed out in rbaldwin.substack.com/p/the-peak-glo….
Yesterday at the @PIIE @CFR_org event President @Lagarde said three important things: (i) In response to a question by @AdamPosen she stated that the @ecb doesn’t target exchange rates “but looks at it a lot”.
@AdamPosen Even if Fed kept inflation at 2%, question is at what cost? He strongly suggests there would have been no cost--perhaps even a benefit. I'd like for him to explain to us how that would have worked. He conveniently avoids explaining though (at least, in the clip I viewed).
Enlightening conversation with @AdamPosen at @PIIE about inflation divergence across the Atlantic, Europe´s challenges in a fragmented world and Spain´s positive outlook. Useful exchange of ideas about how to improve policy decisions in a rapidly changing world.
Watch our discussion in collaboration with @PIIE with Central Bank Governor of Turkey @yfatihkarahan and South African Reserve Bank Governor @KganyagoLesetja on central bank governance in emerging markets. on.cfr.org/3Q4yfGk
I had some time to hear a part of the stream of yesterday. And I have to say that conference seems to be an absolute banger. Really thankful to @PIIE to enable the nerds at home to participate virtually, it really is a public service and the discussion so important
Ann Harrison — I have long been obsessed with industrial policy. The questions I have been asked, since my time at the World Bank: what is the counterfactual? That is, the idea that countries would have done been better in the absence of IP.
Tariffs affect the prices Americans pay in stores every day. And studies show that tariffs are higher on goods and materials for women's products. That is why I introduced the Pink Tariffs Study Act with @RepPettersen. Learn more ⬇️ fletcher.house.gov/news/documents…
As I return to work, in writing/speaking/TV, I've tried to channel Miranda's fearless spirit. My old rule was, "If unsure, don't say it." New rule: "Unless I leave the set worried that I've gone too far - then I haven't gone far enough."
@NOIweala @wto @PIIE @AdamPosen Happy 80th Anniversary of the Bretton Woods System #HappyBirthday #BrettonWoodsSystem
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