Conor Sen @conorsen
Columnist for @opinion. Founder of Peachtree Creek Investments. Sun Belt/monoculture enthusiast. The future is a policy choice. bloomberg.com/opinion/author… Atlanta, GA Joined September 2009-
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Incredible tornado intercept just now north of Lincoln Nebraska!! @ryanhallyall @SevereStudios
BREAKING: The NBA and Amazon Prime Video have the framework of a deal that will make the streaming service one of the main homes for the league games, executives with direct knowledge of the talks told The Athletic ⤵️ theathletic.com/5450064/2024/0…
Looking at Capex to Gross Profit (to normalize for biz models; I deduct fulfillment expense from AMZN) for GOOG/AMZN/META/MSFT. From 2017 to 2024, Capex/GP is surprisingly only up from 23.2% to 25.8%. MSFT: 13% -> 26% GOOG: 20% -> 22% AMZN: 48% -> 26.7% META: 19% -> 29.7%
Active inventory trends for the four most populous states. Normally California has the fewest homes available per population. This year New York claims that dubious distinction!
Generational opportunity to rent in Austin.
Generational opportunity to rent in Austin.
Because January consumption was so weak and February and March were so strong there’s a huge base effect lifting Q2 — this number will probably come down but I’d expect another solid quarter.
Because January consumption was so weak and February and March were so strong there’s a huge base effect lifting Q2 — this number will probably come down but I’d expect another solid quarter.
Biden is at Sirius XM radio in NYC for a live interview with Howard Stern, per White House. It will be about an hour long conversation.
I think the key question right now is whether the labor market and consumption are still slowing. If so, all the benign soft landing scenarios are likely delayed rather than denied. If not the outlook becomes a lot more challenging without any easy short-term policy fixes.
Before the pandemic, higher wage metro areas experienced faster growth. Post-pandemic, low-wage metro areas are adding jobs much more quickly. @AugustBenzow @InnovateEconomy captures the sea change --> eig.org/high-wage-metr…
Wage and salary disbursements YoY growth and quarterly annualized growth — is still really still slowing? @M_C_Klein
The last 2 months were the strongest personal spending growth numbers in over a year.
Current interest rate policy is helping to push housing development to the exurbs and lower-cost metros rather than cities.
Current interest rate policy is helping to push housing development to the exurbs and lower-cost metros rather than cities.
USDJPY trading like the Bank of Japan is run by the Atlanta Falcons front office.
WHAT
Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
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modest proposal @modestproposal1
100K Followers 807 Following I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection. https://t.co/NuC25VaSff
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modest proposal @modestproposal1
100K Followers 807 Following I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection. https://t.co/NuC25VaSff
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26K Followers 5K Following Executive Director - @employamerica. RTs/likes != endorsements. https://t.co/tKsuuvVYoc @skandaamarnath on other sites. Charitable interpretation advised
the ghost of groditi�.. @GRoditiD
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@conorsen All his interviews should be with Spanish-language soccer shows
Aging well.
I hate being on the other side as Bob bc I’ll prob get my ass handed to me, but here goes: No recession in 2024.
Looking at Capex to Gross Profit (to normalize for biz models; I deduct fulfillment expense from AMZN) for GOOG/AMZN/META/MSFT. From 2017 to 2024, Capex/GP is surprisingly only up from 23.2% to 25.8%. MSFT: 13% -> 26% GOOG: 20% -> 22% AMZN: 48% -> 26.7% META: 19% -> 29.7%
@conorsen Wonder how this looks for Atlanta MSA -- lots of apartments being built here...
Today was my last day in Microsoft! After 13 years my stint is done! Excited for what's next!!
@conorsen So many focus on the negative. Imagine getting a long term lease in that?
Last day on the buyside before transitioning back to the why?-side. Can't wait to tweet again.
@conorsen Is the idea that if we make housing development impossible, this will worsen the housing shortage, drive up prices.... wait how is this supposed to help inflation?
@conorsen Indeed x.com/p_skrzypczynsk…
Goldman is in the same camp as initial GDPNow. Notice that Q2 has a lot of carry-over from Q1 in terms of real PCE.
@conorsen FWIW I work in media and I've got people I PA'd for 10 years ago emailing me asking me for work.
Marriage is good for a simple reason: accountability Every person who is successful or healthy has some mechanism to ensure they are “doing what they’re supposed” The basic fact if someone *observing* (not even nagging etc) you makes you do the “right thing” 99% of the time
“Marital quality is, far and away, the top predictor I have run across of life satisfaction in America,” I wrote in *Get Married*. @DKThomp isn’t totally convinced. He offers his own fascinating take on marriage, money & happiness @TheAtlantic: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
That's why Biden doing the interview makes sense.
Also it's kind of funny that Howard Stern — almost uniquely among similar shock jock types — became a normie Resistance guy. It's almost subversive within his demographic.
@conorsen @EconBerger is always good about reminding about this phenomenon in the data. Hard to be bearish on Q2, plus the likely inventory boost we'll get as well.
@conorsen @M_C_Klein Not dismissing what you’re flagging but there is a a public vs private sector split issue here
@conorsen Don’t diss Gen-X, we spend money, we just keep it chill…
It’s kind of wild that sociologists did all sorts of crazy experiments in the 70’s and then deemed them too unethical to repeat. So for like 50s years we just accepted BS fake data as gospel.
I would say that twitters ability to literally stay on line is fine but the spam getting so much worse despite Musk’s purported obsession with “bots” from even before the acquisition has been a bad fact for current twitter management
Twitter had held up way better than nearly all the detractors predicted, kinda time to face the facts?
Nominal growth is high enough and inflation is high enough for markets to not go anywhere in a hurry....everything else is daily noise
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