Elbridge Colby @ElbridgeColby
Principal, Marathon Initiative. Former Pentagon, 2018 National Defense Strategy, inter alia. Author of Strategy of Denial. Views my own. themarathoninitiative.org/elbridge-colby/ Washington, DC Joined December 2011-
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@Noahpinion @ElbridgeColby So long as the PLA can’t do math and figure out when we hit a local minimum
The fact that 40% of the world's chemicals, 90% of the world's rare earth, and 28% of all manufacturing comes out of China bodes ill for US industry. Prepare for scarcity.
The fact that 40% of the world's chemicals, 90% of the world's rare earth, and 28% of all manufacturing comes out of China bodes ill for US industry. Prepare for scarcity.
@johnkonrad #1 munitions, #2 fuel, #3 sealift, #4 repair capacity. That’s roughly the order we’d run out of them in a war. Honestly the recent report the Navy might be solving VLS replenishment at sea is the best naval news I’ve heard in years.
@johnkonrad Well, YOU have been talking about it, but logistics logistics logistics: tenders, oilers, munitions …. Also, yes, the global economy will go into recession overnight and thousands will die in agony, but that’s a given, whereas the logistics stuff we could actually fix.
🇨🇳 was historically short energy/food and vulnerable because the trade lanes for them cut through maritime chokepoints. 🇨🇳 is addressing this via Russia. Linking energy infra. remains limited but expanding. As @ElbridgeColby has noted, 🇨🇳 has a strategy while we are flying blind.
🇨🇳 was historically short energy/food and vulnerable because the trade lanes for them cut through maritime chokepoints. 🇨🇳 is addressing this via Russia. Linking energy infra. remains limited but expanding. As @ElbridgeColby has noted, 🇨🇳 has a strategy while we are flying blind.
Costly Lesson
🎯🎯🎯
@ElbridgeColby 🇯🇵🇰🇷🇵🇱
🎯 Inconvenient truths. @ElbridgeColby
@Xycocb @ElbridgeColby @SkyYaldaHakim Colby is correct. The political, economic, and cultural center is shifting away from Europe and the West. The demographics clearly indicate this change.
“There are no solutions, only tradeoffs” Many have learned the opposite lesson in the theater of domestic politics, where all tradeoffs are abstracted away or pushed into the future (debt, inflation, social welfare) Anything that requires resources, manpower or money is scarce.…
“There are no solutions, only tradeoffs” Many have learned the opposite lesson in the theater of domestic politics, where all tradeoffs are abstracted away or pushed into the future (debt, inflation, social welfare) Anything that requires resources, manpower or money is scarce.…
Very important thread.
@FPRI_Orbis @ElbridgeColby Indeed, these so called middle powers or swing states are oscillating between America and the DragonBear (the most prominent example is Europe) but as I said already in 2015, they will be confronted with the challenge to pick a side one day in the future.
@FPRI_Orbis @ElbridgeColby Indeed, these so called middle powers or swing states are oscillating between America and the DragonBear (the most prominent example is Europe) but as I said already in 2015, they will be confronted with the challenge to pick a side one day in the future.
@ElbridgeColby We could have spent $0 to be woken up to basic facts that were easy to check. All the US should have done for Ukraine was: 1. Provide javelins, stingers, SAM reloads, & lots of arty ammo; 2. Sell Europe our stockpiles at the depreciated rates then reinvest that 💰 into 🇺🇲 DIB.
@ElbridgeColby This is the cost of an unfocused strategy and endless wars in Europe and the Middle East. We will be low on ammo when it really counts!
$170 billion is an exceptionally high price to pay for that. Seems like we could have learned that for a lot less. We need to get real. No more indirect benefits that are not net positive.
$170 billion is an exceptionally high price to pay for that. Seems like we could have learned that for a lot less. We need to get real. No more indirect benefits that are not net positive.
NYT piece on steps US is (not) taking to deter China. It's very hard to know how much needs to be done to deter an adversary. In Cold War I, there was continual uncertainty and argument about this. Same now in Cold War II.
NYT piece on steps US is (not) taking to deter China. It's very hard to know how much needs to be done to deter an adversary. In Cold War I, there was continual uncertainty and argument about this. Same now in Cold War II.
3/3 Generally, China purchases minerals for its stockpile when mineral prices are low and domestic mineral producers face profitability issues. If China stockpiles minerals when mineral prices are high, it suggests that China is stockpiling for strategic reasons.
2/3 “[China’s stockpile] policy serves two purposes. It provides a strategic stockpile for national emergencies, such as a war, and defends local industries against severe price fluctuations.” aspistrategist.org.au/china-shows-ho…
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The fact that 40% of the world's chemicals, 90% of the world's rare earth, and 28% of all manufacturing comes out of China bodes ill for US industry. Prepare for scarcity.
If large war breaks out in the Pacific what’s your top concern that nobody’s talking about?
@SydneyFreedberg Which logistical problem worries you the most?
@johnkonrad #1 munitions, #2 fuel, #3 sealift, #4 repair capacity. That’s roughly the order we’d run out of them in a war. Honestly the recent report the Navy might be solving VLS replenishment at sea is the best naval news I’ve heard in years.
@johnkonrad Well, YOU have been talking about it, but logistics logistics logistics: tenders, oilers, munitions …. Also, yes, the global economy will go into recession overnight and thousands will die in agony, but that’s a given, whereas the logistics stuff we could actually fix.
If large war breaks out in the Pacific what’s your top concern that nobody’s talking about?
🇨🇳 was historically short energy/food and vulnerable because the trade lanes for them cut through maritime chokepoints. 🇨🇳 is addressing this via Russia. Linking energy infra. remains limited but expanding. As @ElbridgeColby has noted, 🇨🇳 has a strategy while we are flying blind.
The fact that 40% of the world's chemicals, 90% of the world's rare earth, and 28% of all manufacturing comes out of China bodes ill for US industry. Prepare for scarcity.
Costly Lesson
$170 billion is an exceptionally high price to pay for that. Seems like we could have learned that for a lot less. We need to get real. No more indirect benefits that are not net positive.
True
On France's Nuclear Weapons
U.S. policy on friendly proliferation has been more nuanced than commonly supposed. “Yet in reality from the late 1960s until the mid-1970s President Nixon authorized secret unofficial assistance for the French bomb’s development.” 1/ thespectator.com/topic/emmanuel…
🎯🎯🎯
Obviously correct. 🎯 from @Chellaney. Sometimes it takes an outsider friend to state the obvious when our conventional wisdom is so warped. 1/ thehill.com/opinion/nation…
🎯 Inconvenient truths. @ElbridgeColby
'I take China and Asia gravely seriously.' Former US deputy assistant secretary of defence @ElbridgeColby is asked by @SkyYaldaHakim about 'shifting interests' to China, instead of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. trib.al/zff6Z7W 📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602
@Xycocb @ElbridgeColby @SkyYaldaHakim Colby is correct. The political, economic, and cultural center is shifting away from Europe and the West. The demographics clearly indicate this change.
“There are no solutions, only tradeoffs” Many have learned the opposite lesson in the theater of domestic politics, where all tradeoffs are abstracted away or pushed into the future (debt, inflation, social welfare) Anything that requires resources, manpower or money is scarce.…
What’s provably wrong is denying this from @JDVance1, which is just factually true and central: “It’s that America is stretched too thin. We do not have the industrial capacity to support a war in Ukraine, in Israel, if the Chinese invade Taiwan. We have to pick and choose.”
Very important thread.
Obviously correct. 🎯 from @Chellaney. Sometimes it takes an outsider friend to state the obvious when our conventional wisdom is so warped. 1/ thehill.com/opinion/nation…
@FPRI_Orbis @ElbridgeColby Indeed, these so called middle powers or swing states are oscillating between America and the DragonBear (the most prominent example is Europe) but as I said already in 2015, they will be confronted with the challenge to pick a side one day in the future.
Me in 2015: Regional actors will eventually be confronted with either/or choice due to emerging bipolarity between the USA & China in the #GlobalSystem. #EU in 2020: “We Europeans cannot accept the idea that the world should organize itself around a new Sino-American bipolarity.”
@ElbridgeColby We could have spent $0 to be woken up to basic facts that were easy to check. All the US should have done for Ukraine was: 1. Provide javelins, stingers, SAM reloads, & lots of arty ammo; 2. Sell Europe our stockpiles at the depreciated rates then reinvest that 💰 into 🇺🇲 DIB.
@ElbridgeColby This is the cost of an unfocused strategy and endless wars in Europe and the Middle East. We will be low on ammo when it really counts!