Marko Bjegovic @MBjegovic
Founder/CEO of Arkomina | Investor | Macroeconomist | Stock Picker | Not investment advice (see disclaimer) | Newsletter: https://t.co/9NRz67BK3k ArkominaResearch.com London, UK Joined January 2022-
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Mar #PCE hotter than expected Headline +0.3% MoM vs +0.3% consensus vs +0.3% in Feb +2.7% YoY vs +2.6% consensus vs +2.5% in Feb Core +0.3% MoM vs +0.3% consensus vs +0.3% in Feb +2.8% YoY vs +2.6% consensus vs +2.8% in Feb #inflation #Fed
Just released a new article explaining #inflation and the #Fed. This article goes deep in the #CPI and particularly shelter component explaining all the relevant CPI data hidden from the usually reported numbers. The article is available at: open.substack.com/pub/arkominare…
Q1 GDP +1.6% vs +2.4% consensus vs +3.4% in Q4 So, not that "strong" like often gets addressed. Initial Jobless Claims 207K vs 214K consensus vs 212K prior Continuing Claims 1781K vs 1814K consensus vs 1796K prior
Before you get hyped about commodities "outperforming", bear in mind that they are: 1) down -28% from their peak mid-2022 and 2) they are down -34% from their peak mid-2008 So if you bought them during the 2008 craze, you will still, after 16 yrs, be 1/3 under the water (that's…
Before you get hyped about commodities "outperforming", bear in mind that they are: 1) down -28% from their peak mid-2022 and 2) they are down -34% from their peak mid-2008 So if you bought them during the 2008 craze, you will still, after 16 yrs, be 1/3 under the water (that's…
Another one... #Fed
@biancoresearch these are not actual claims numbers but SA data. NSA data is in fact different each week:
@biancoresearch these are not actual claims numbers but SA data. NSA data is in fact different each week: https://t.co/Tc81l1TgSu
#Fed Beige Book: 1) Overall economic activity expanded slightly 2) Employment rose at a slight pace overall 3) Firms’ ability to pass cost increases on to consumers had weakened considerably in recent months Does this sound like a "booming" economy where #inflation is a problem?
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is below 200 for the first time since Mar 2021! The index is down -13.7% YoY and has been negative YoY for the past 20 months straight. The index is also down -22.7% from the peak in Dec 2021/Jan 2022. #deflation
Mar Retail Sales +0.7% MoM vs +0.3% consensus vs +0.9% in Feb. Turns out consumption is higher than we thought. Apr NY Empire State Manufacturing -14.3 vs -9 consensus vs -20.9 in Mar
Futures open slightly positive. So no end of the world so far... #SPX
My Mar #PCE estimates are out (2nd decimal for both headline and core MoM and YoY). #inflation You can find them here: open.substack.com/pub/arkominare…
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
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@MBjegovic @MichaelMOTTCM Yep, I think you and I are among the few who know how that this is going to play out. Panicked rate cuts once we realize underlying data is pointing to an accelerating slow down.
20 years of love...💛
Was unaware @EdwardConard was on Twitter. One of the smartest guys I know. Massively underfollowed.
3.59mm children were born in the US in 2023, down 2% from 2022, as the US total fertility rate fell to 1.6 births/woman, the lowest level on record. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Always be grateful for what you have
Thanks
Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have spiked from 3.8% to a current level of 4.6%. @jimiuorio says, "The relentless momentum appears to be fueled by stronger than expected economic data and a resurgence of inflation."
A little lion snarling at a remote camera
This is how all Elephants should be, just so beautiful to see, happy and free in their natural habitat!!
@texasrunnerDFW Lmao, get ready to be bombarded
Core PCE deflator rose 3.7% annualized in Q1 this year. It rose 5.0% in Q1 last year. If that's not lower inflation, I don't know what is.
"@profplum99 has been so terribly wrong this cycle, don’t follow or listen to him." Truer words n'er spoken
@EconBerger @TXMCtrades too much confirmation bias, ex post trying to desperately cling to wrong views. @profplum99 has been so terribly wrong this cycle, don’t follow or listen to him. There may already be a recession, the BED release doesn’t confirm or deny it because it is mostly useless
Hikers came across a dehydrated horned viper in the desert and gave it some water
People rescuing a Great White Shark that beached itself chasing a seagull. Filmed on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.
THE MARKET THIS WEEK GOOD EARNINGS = STOCK DOWN 10% BAD EARNINGS = STOCK UP 12% LOL
Well, the Business Dynamics revision is up and turns out that Birth/Death models weren't all that inaccurate (/s). As a reminder, they projected 264K jobs created NSA (roughly 100K jobs per month seasonally adjusted). The actual data was a LOSS of 198K jobs. So the net 500K jobs…
Initial claims tomorrow morning. My estimate is 212K. See the last 11 below. (FYI - Wall Street is 215K)
Below is the number of initial filings for unemployment insurance. How is this statistically possible? Five of the last six weeks, the exact same number. Effectively the same number in the last 11 weeks, except for the holiday weeks (President's Day and Easter). --- Consider…
@MBjegovic @RyanDetrick It's been one of the best buy indicators over the past 3-4 years
Now Jamie Dimon says we could be headed back to the 1970s? Just remember, JPM set aside $1.88B provision for credit losses in the quarter, far below the $2.7B expected by analysts. If they were truly worried about things, they don't do this. finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dim…
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