Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm
President, Queens' College, Cambridge Uni. Allianz, Gramercy advisor. Wharton Professor. Lauder Senior Fellow. Former Pimco CEO/co-CiO. Chair Cambridge Union. mohamedel-erian.com USA Joined July 2011-
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The @WSJ is right on this: “Even if the Fed cuts, the days of ultralow rates are over.” Also, we are yet to deal fully with the consequences of the over-indebtedness and resource misallocations encouraged by the protracted period of ultra-loose monetary policy. #economy…
From the Bloomberg article, “Fed Rate-Cut Debate Shifts From When Toward If on Inflation Data:” Fed Chair “Powell has kept the committee united in its rate path, with no dissents in nearly two years, but there are some signs of strains. Until recently, Powell had sounded dovish…
Some thoughts on the challenges facing those forecasting an inherently uncertain global economy experiencing major structural transitions, both domestically and internationally. project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-… @ProSyn #economy #markets #EconTwitter
“As the US reported the latest in a string of poor #inflation figures, markets reined in their forecasts for rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as by the Fed itself.” As captured by this @FT quote, the markets’ repricing of central bank cuts…
An interesting week ahead for the global #economy and #markets, including (but not limited to)… The release of the US monthly #jobs report, Eurozone inflation and GDP, and China’s #PMI’s; and A 2-day policy meeting at the #FederalReserve. By the end of the week, we should…
The difficulties facing economic and market forecasters are complicated by two broader phenomena that could last for years to come, cautions @elerianm. bit.ly/3QlNef4
With globalization giving way to fragmentation, we will continue to see a greater divergence in outcomes between and within countries, writes @elerianm. bit.ly/3QlNef4
.@elerianm sees three issues as key to deciphering what 2024-25 will look like for the US economy: the @federalreserve, low-income consumers, and the effects of new technologies on economic, social, and political life. bit.ly/3QlNef4
This week’s #markets were supposed to be mainly about earnings, with macro taking more of a back seat ahead of next week’s US #jobs data, the #FederalReserve meeting, #China’s PMI, etc (more on this in the weekly look ahead that I will post later). Earnings did have a notable…
From today’s @FT. #economy #inflation #EconTwitter
Looking forward to the #FederalReserve's policy meeting next week: Not just the recent elevated readings of actual #inflation will make officials a little uncomfortable about the dovish December pivot. Forward expectations have also moved up. At 3.2% for the next year,…
According to the just-released data, March headline and core PCE #inflation are slightly higher than the consensus forecasts (2.7 vs. 2.6 and 2.8 vs 2.7). Having said that, the miss is smaller than yesterday, and the monthly readings are in line. Meanwhile, personal spending rose…
From the @WSJ article, “Why Is the Federal Reserve Always Surprised by Inflation? The central bank owes the public an explanation—and a serious effort to correct its flawed model.” #economy #markets #centralbanks #econtwitter #federalreserve
Bloomberg on the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting. Think of this as another small step in what the BoJ sees as a relatively long policy normalization journey. The length of this journey, both on a standalone basis and relative to the US, helps explain the…
From Paul Tuckers FT column, “A message to economists: geopolitics matters too.” #economy #EconTwitter @FT
Per below, the whole US yield curve shifted up in reaction to the data (see prior post), including the 2-year which traded above 5% as markets pushed to December the expectation of the first rate cut by the #FederalReserve. (Amazing to think that, just four months ago, #markets…
The hope that some have that this US GDP data (below) would take some pressure off US government bond yields (and others) will be totally dashed unfortunately by another hot inflation print: Core PCE inflation came in at 3.7% for the first quarter, well above both the prior three…
The hope that some have that this US GDP data (below) would take some pressure off US government bond yields (and others) will be totally dashed unfortunately by another hot inflation print: Core PCE inflation came in at 3.7% for the first quarter, well above both the prior three…
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1.7M Followers 2K Following Stocks/Options/Crypto/Market News +Tools. Not advice 🐳 who changed 🏛️. Get $50-$5000 to trade: https://t.co/wGf2ZdlXpw Discord: https://t.co/0xJ9e0ZYYG More: https://t.co/nsxZlPV0pCThe difficulties facing economic and market forecasters are complicated by two broader phenomena that could last for years to come, cautions @elerianm. bit.ly/3QlNef4
.@elerianm sees three issues as key to deciphering what 2024-25 will look like for the US economy: the @federalreserve, low-income consumers, and the effects of new technologies on economic, social, and political life. bit.ly/3QlNef4
With globalization giving way to fragmentation, we will continue to see a greater divergence in outcomes between and within countries, writes @elerianm. bit.ly/3QlNef4
First seminar in new @Gates_Cambridge Scholars’ Centre. Nobel prize winner Mike Spence, President Queens’ College Cambridge @elerianm and Gates scholar @ReidLidow talking personally about career motivation - wake up every day excited by what you do.
#Permacrisis is a comprehensive examination of our current global challenges, packed with actionable solutions. Authored by @GordonBrown, @elerianm, Michael Spence and Reid Lidow, Permacrisis publishes in paperback this Thursday >> simonandschuster.co.uk/books/Permacri…
We agree on the permanence of Against the Gods. Soon, @elerianm & @JavierBlas, together. ft.com/content/7f5538…
🦆 Duckling herding is a fine, long-standing spring tradition for our Colleges! The College teams were lucky enough to document one duck family on their epic journey. Here they go from @CorpusCambridge through @Catz_Cambridge to @QueensCam for their first swim together.
The mighty dollar has been on a tear this year. Here's its YTD performance against the world's most traded currencies (red indicates that specific currency's drop against the greenback)
"There is a lot at stake" As Iran-Israel tensions grow, #G30 member @elerianm discusses how yet another sign of growing global instability will affect the global economy. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College, Cambridge says US exceptionalism among global economies "can be derailed by one of two things. Oil at $110, or a Fed that's too tight" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Don't miss crucial commentary by the world's most influential economists, including Kenneth Rogoff, Mariana Mazzucato, and Mohamed El-Erian. Subscribe to our newsletter, PS Economics, now. bit.ly/49z2PPz
The global economy and markets are relatively well-placed to handle the immediate uptick in geopolitical risk. They are not well-placed to navigate further escalations that would involve more parties in a more significant manner, says @elerianm trib.al/MOLb96z
The data-dependent strategy of the U.S. Federal Reserve has come under fire from Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz. @elerianm suggests that the Fed’s focus on data has led it to lose sight of its broader strategy.
"If we continue with hot inflation prints, which we probably will for some time, there's a risk that the Fed will not only not cut rates but will increase it." Allianz Chief Economic Adviser @elerianm on the latest uptick in U.S. inflation with @jchatterleyCNN and Richard Quest.
It’s time for the Fed to pivot from excessive data dependence to a more strategic view of its inflation target for the good of the US economy, says @elerianm trib.al/4yoh7KM
"The world is changing in a way that markets right now are not even looking at," says Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College, Cambridge bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The big mistake in 2021 was people didn't listen to companies, which "were clearly saying we have inflationary pressures:" @elerianm. "This time around listen to the earnings call & they are worried about the outlook for the rest of the year." bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
India’s recent economic success, solid momentum, and promising prospects are making the country ever more influential both regionally and internationally, write @elerianm and Michael Spence. on.cfr.org/3U4WXsz
"The Fed should be the strategic anchor to this market and leave the play-by-play commentary to others," says @elerianm. "It imposes an unnecessary amount of volatility onto it."
Giving Day is back from the 8th-9th May! 💚 We're encouraging our community of alumni, staff, Fellows, students & friends to support five essential causes at Queens': Sustainability, Accessibility, History, Engineering & the Unrestricted Fund. See more: youtube.com/watch?v=jfzzAf…