Omair Sharif @fcastofthemonth
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One interesting aspect of tmrw’s jobs data will be the change in part-time workers. Lots of chatter about how PT made up all job growth in Mar and is up 1.9 mil since Oct while FT is down. PT rise has been significant but also think weeds of data show less cause for concern.
Prepare to be glued to your screens on CPI/PPI/PCE days for the rest of the summer (at least).
The residual seasonality/"Jan effect" story didn't make much sense this yr as it was a core services issue and not the usual core goods move, which is why there was some reason to worry. That said, Marc supercore def an upside surprise.
The residual seasonality/"Jan effect" story didn't make much sense this yr as it was a core services issue and not the usual core goods move, which is why there was some reason to worry. That said, Marc supercore def an upside surprise.
Leased cars MoM% in the CPI before and after covid. Each of those recent +/- 5%ish moves is worth about 5bps on the core.
Fed officials seem concerned that core goods disinflation is over/bottoming. Not sure that’s the case. I think we should expect declines in most months through 1H. And, hopefully by start of 2H, there should be more downward impulse from the largest item in core goods.
An encouraging core PCE print, even if it was aided by about 10bps from overly stringent seas adj on airfares & weak legal services that prob won’t repeat. Regardless, a good step down from Jan and it seems like Mar is shaping up to be even better.
New analysis w/ @LorenAdler looks at early results from the No Surprises Act arbitration process. In short: the prices emerging are quite high, and there is a real chance that the law will raise prices/premiums, not reduce them as CBO predicted. brookings.edu/articles/a-fir…
Bostic is less confident on inflation now vs Dec & moves to 1 cut vs 2. This is an issue with data dependence. At some point, the fwd fcast should play a role. The shift from 2.4% to 2.6% Q4/Q4 core PCE in the SEP was mechanical based on Jan/Feb but Jan looks like an outlier.
The slowing in the 6m SAAR core PCE in late 2H23 bolstered Mar rate cut calls. It is now likely to be at 3.0% in Feb (incl Jan revisions). Jan core PCE prob revised up to 0.5% but Feb core was cooler at 0.3% & YoY at 2.8%. A tough Q1, but there’s light at the end of the quarter.
The slowing in the 6m SAAR core PCE in late 2H23 bolstered Mar rate cut calls. It is now likely to be at 3.0% in Feb (incl Jan revisions). Jan core PCE prob revised up to 0.5% but Feb core was cooler at 0.3% & YoY at 2.8%. A tough Q1, but there’s light at the end of the quarter.
The Feb core PCE will prob be better than Jan but may not be a good print for the Fed. Doubt it means much for a Jun cut. However, would think little change to inflation forecasts in the March SEP and likely hold at 3 dots given inflation data. Tone could stay mildly hawkish.
We’ll firm up core PCE once we get the PPI data but *right now* it looks like it’ll come in probably stronger than the Fed would like to see, esp after the Jan report.
Core CPI was up 0.358%, exactly in line with my fcast. However, some luck there since there were a few surprises. Maybe the biggest one was a 6bps add from leased cars. Hotel rates and medical care were weak, offsetting some of the leased cars pop.
Email from the BLS: "BLS will hold a webinar on Thursday, March 7, 2024, at noon ET to discuss the underlying methodology related to the January 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) for rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER)."
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That feeling when the new contracts kick in
.@carlquintanilla is spot on here--but just to add a touch of context: this ties the sub-4% unemployment rate streak **outside of the WWII and Korean war periods** (which because of the military enlisting of men artificially suppressed U3 rates) still: a peacetime US record. wow
With today's unemployment rate under 4%, the US ties the record for the longest, consecutive, monthly streak -- set in the late 1960s. #NFP
Most of the jobs added are in a few sectors, but most sectors are adding jobs!
It's not quite right to say job gains "narrowed," because the diffusion index actually edged up, and has basically been holding steady.
A Belated Jobs Day Thread. Takeaways: 1) The labor market still looks solid but not really "re-accelerating" 2) What previously looked razor-hot in Q1 (nonfarm payrolls) has indeed cooled down. 3) What previously looked very cool (prime-age employment) has firmed up.
The gap b/w the U6 & official UR captures underemployment & is a far superior metric of labor market tightness than job openings--it correctly shows late 1990s & 2022 as the strongest job markets. The gap is low but has widened, lack of tightness is confirmed in slower wage gains
Early to say with much confidence yet, but we may be finally starting to see some genuine nominal wage deceleration
Happy birthday to Hall of Famer Russ Grimm! 🎂
Correct take on the FOMC this week:
The analysts are less concerned about the Fed than they were yesterday‼️ I have to agree with them‼️
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The 6% Solution? theovershoot.co/p/the-6-soluti… <-- U.S. spending and incomes continue to grow a bit faster than before the pandemic. And that's okay.
@EconBerger The fights about whether it's because of TCJA or ARP will be amazing.
Really interesting survey! Looks like economics majors have much higher inflation preferences
Documenting novel survey-based facts on preferred long-run inflation rates among US consumers find consumers on average prefer a 0.20 percent annual inflation rate, from @hafrouzi, Alexander Dietrich, Kristian Myrseth, Romanos Priftis, and Raphael Schoenle nber.org/papers/w32379
Ideal spring temperatures have arrived in NYC this morning. And by this afternoon, it will officially be summer
I'm excited as anyone for Jobs Day tomorrow, but the literal eye twitches are a bit much
The Nats just shut out the Rangers. First 1-0 victory in two years. ⚾️ Trevor Williams has a 2.27 ERA. ⚾️ Bullpen: 4 IP, 1 H, 6 Ks. They are 15-15 overall, 13-9 over their last 22, and a win tomorrow away from winning 5 of 7 series’.
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exciting news labour market participation is big for supply and demand pearkes keeps winning
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