Gene Goldman, CFA @GeneGoldman
Gene Goldman is Chief Investment Officer for Cetera Investment Management (CIM) (@CeteraIM). CIM is owned by @CeteraFinancial. Boston native. California Joined October 2011-
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Markets reacting poorly to Q1 #EmploymentCosts. Think it is an overreaction. We know January avg hourly earnings was hot (on lower labor participation). But, slowing job openings/quits (along with increased productivity) should slow wages. Payroll Friday should show this. #ECI
Markets reacting poorly to Q1 #EmploymentCosts. Think it is an overreaction. We know January avg hourly earnings was hot (on lower labor participation). But, slowing job openings/quits (along with increased productivity) should slow wages. Payroll Friday should show this. #ECI https://t.co/pf9KJ9oQMH
Much market moving data this week with Friday's #payroll report most important. Also, the #Fed won't change rates this week, but listen to Powell's tone at his presser - likely lost confidence where inflation is headed/will suggest June meeting more important for direction.
Market sentiment is weak, no #Fed speak this week, and S&P 500 is down 5.3% this month. The 200-DMA remains a possible support level for the S&P 500 (4676, or about an 11% drawdown). A benign Core #PCE could be a catalyst for a market reversal. Fed cares more about PCE than #CPI
Corrections are a normal part of investing. Generally they occur once per year (last one was October 2023) and, as we note below, the average pullback is -14.2%. Most important, any pullback should be short-lived on strong earnings/significant cash ($24T) on the sidelines. $SPX
Corrections are a normal part of investing. Generally they occur once per year (last one was October 2023) and, as we note below, the average pullback is -14.2%. Most important, any pullback should be short-lived on strong earnings/significant cash ($24T) on the sidelines. $SPX
Equities down about 4.5% from highs. If sentiment worsens, S&P 500 downside is likely the 200-DMA (4668) or another 7.5% from these levels. Given significant cash on the sidelines (est. $24T) and 11.2% expected earnings growth, any correction should be short-lived. $SPX $SPY
Yes, you read that correctly! The highest tax bracket was 94% in 1945. That 37% tax bracket for those of you in the highest level today doesn’t seem too bad now. Happy #TaxDay! #TaxDay2024
We continue to expect a near-term pullback (#Fed uncertainty, high valuations, rising geopolitical risks to name a few). But, any pullback should be short-lived. One reason comes back to fundamentals - #earnings drive stock prices and @FactSet expects 11% growth in 2024.
Please check out our newest commentary from @btklimke and @ceteraIM. We discuss the recent market volatility and the disconnect between stock and bond investors. Equities likely pullback near-term, but any weakness should be short-lived. #StockMarket #fridayvibes
Please check out our newest commentary from @btklimke and @ceteraIM. We discuss the recent market volatility and the disconnect between stock and bond investors. Equities likely pullback near-term, but any weakness should be short-lived. #StockMarket #fridayvibes
Thank you @ADISAtweets for the opportunity to present at your conference. Looking forward to the next opportunity to discuss the economy and financial markets. What a wonderful conference in Chicago!
Thank you @ADISAtweets for the opportunity to present at your conference. Looking forward to the next opportunity to discuss the economy and financial markets. What a wonderful conference in Chicago!
Crucial #CPI report this week. Expect headline CPI to rise on higher energy prices, but the more important core CPI should show further slowing. Weaker used car prices and slowing services industry metrics should help. #Fed
Goldilocks #JobsReport shows a strong labor market with a moderation of wage gains. Today's report continued the trend of an improving labor supply-demand imbalance. We continue to see a decline in job openings with a rise in the participation rate.
Goldilocks #JobsReport shows a strong labor market with a moderation of wage gains. Today's report continued the trend of an improving labor supply-demand imbalance. We continue to see a decline in job openings with a rise in the participation rate.
Thank you @philrosenn and @ReadOpeningBell for including my perspective on the jobs report in your commentary today. #jobsreport #payroll #Employment
Thank you @philrosenn and @ReadOpeningBell for including my perspective on the jobs report in your commentary today. #jobsreport #payroll #Employment
Points from #Powell clearly show the Powell Put is back: - Reiterated previous perspectives on interest rates and that recent data readings have not changed #Fed plans - Needs more time to see if recent data is just a bump or a new trend - Expects to cut rates this year
This week we get our first real look at March's economy. Though the data should show resilience, we still expect the #Fed to cut rates (most likely starting in June). Powell & Co. remain concerned about the downstream effects of high rates on real estate and the banking sector.
This week we get our first real look at March's economy. Though the data should show resilience, we still expect the #Fed to cut rates (most likely starting in June). Powell & Co. remain concerned about the downstream effects of high rates on real estate and the banking sector.
Moms know best, especially when it comes to the economy and financial markets. Please check out my latest video regarding why.
Moms know best, especially when it comes to the economy and financial markets. Please check out my latest video regarding why.
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High interest rates are a challenge for consumers, potentially deterring spending due to rising borrowing costs. However, consumer debt levels are manageable, with household debt as a percentage of GDP at its lowest level since 2001.
Our first look at the #economy in April indicates slowing growth. The Flash U.S. PMI composite eased for the 2nd straight month, falling to a 4-month low of 50.9. Positively, it was in expansion territory for the 15th straight month.
The 30-year mortgage rate reached a 5-month high of 7.2% last week, resulting in a 1% decline in purchase applications. The combination of high prices, elevated mortgage rates, and limited inventory has restrained home sales activity.
The battle between Growth and Value is nearly even since the start of 2021. The Russell 1000 Growth index is up 38% and the Russell 1000 Value index is up 36%. Value held up much better during the 2022 bear market, but Growth made a strong comeback.
US real #GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter from 3.4% in Q4 ‘23, widely missing expectations of +2.7% growth. While consumer spending rose at a healthy pace, net exports and inventories subtracted 1.2% from growth.
Markets are pricing in fewer rate cuts for this year compared to the Fed’s dot plot projection of 3 rate cuts by year end. The implied fed funds rate for December has risen to 5.0%, indicating that the futures market is pricing in only 1 to 2 rate cuts.
Personal consumption expenditures (#PCE) increased by 0.8% last month, surpassing expectations of +0.5%. Consumer spending was robust for both goods (+1.3%) and services (+0.6%), with a solid year-over-year growth rate of 5.8%.
The Fed’s preferred inflationary gauge is the core #PCE price index. It slowed on an annual basis to a 3-year low of 2.82% in March. However, core PCE has risen at an annualized pace of 3.0% over the last 6-months and a 4.4% pace over the prior 3 months.
Housing sales activity is at recessionary levels because of low inventory, but the components of housing that flow into GDP (construction) are in a solid recovery. Residential fixed investment growth jumped to a 13-quarter high of 13.9% annualized in Q1.
We are near the halfway point of Q1 earnings season. S&P 500 earnings growth is 3.3%, with 80% of firms beating expectations. Health Care is the laggard with -28% earnings growth, though @FactSet projects double digit earnings growth the next 4 quarters.
Consumer spending on energy peaked at 9.6% of total expenditures in 1980. It’s less than half that level today (4.1%). Improved energy efficiencies and increased domestic production have prevented energy costs from overwhelming consumer budgets.
The S&P 500 is 8.8% above its 200-day moving average (MA), down from 13% above a month ago. 10% or above is generally viewed as extended. At the sector level, Communication Services (13.7%) and Industrials (+10.9%) are the furthest above their 200-day MA.
Markets are pricing in fewer rate cuts. The 2-year treasury yield, which is a proxy for where interest rates are expected to be in the next year, climbed above 5% for the first time since November. The #Fed will shed more light on rates tomorrow.
@GeneGoldman Thank you so much! Good to know 🤞
Markets reacting poorly to Q1 #EmploymentCosts. Think it is an overreaction. We know January avg hourly earnings was hot (on lower labor participation). But, slowing job openings/quits (along with increased productivity) should slow wages. Payroll Friday should show this. #ECI
Compensation costs up 1.2% Dec 2023 to Mar 2024 and up 4.2% over the year ending Mar 2024 bls.gov/news.release/e… #EmploymentCosts #BLSdata
During a busy week for #FinancialData, CIO @GeneGoldman, will be focused on Friday’s payroll report. Join this week’s #TheWeekAhead as he explains why he expects this report to show slowing metrics, and what that could mean for rate cuts. h-sms.fisglobal.com/3Iv0ea
Much market moving data this week with Friday's #payroll report most important. Also, the #Fed won't change rates this week, but listen to Powell's tone at his presser - likely lost confidence where inflation is headed/will suggest June meeting more important for direction.
During a busy week for #FinancialData, CIO @GeneGoldman will focus on Friday’s payroll report. Join him on this week’s episode of #TheWeekAhead as he explains why he expects this report to show slowing metrics – and what it could mean for rate cuts. cetera.com/research-and-i…
During a busy week for #FinancialData, CIO @GeneGoldman will focus on Friday’s payroll report. Join him on this week’s episode of #TheWeekAhead as he explains why he expects this report to show slowing metrics – and what it could mean for rate cuts. cetera.com/research-and-i…
The Fed isn't going to cut rates this week. And it may be a while before the next easing. In fact, Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie, said in a report today that "we also don't rule out that the next change may be a hike."
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