Beth Stanton @beth_stanton
@business editor for US interest rates. Monitoring Treasuries, futures, TIPS since 1997. [email protected]. Opinions mine & @compostmaven’s. NYC Joined June 2011-
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#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by <3bp inside Thursday's ranges, which included YTD highs (2Y 5.025%, 10Y 4.735%) reached as Fed rate-cut expectations ebbed further. May options expire. Ahead next week: May-July auction sizes Wednesday, with no changes to nominals expected.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with stock futures red. $44b 7Y auction at 1pm is last coupon sale until May 7 start of quarterly refunding (details TBA May 1). WI yield ~4.66% exceeds 7Y stops since October's multiyear high 4.908%. New 5Y 4.648% vs 4.659% auction stop.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 3bp-4bp, mostly inside yday's rally ranges, amid higher yields globally led by Australia's. Record $70b 5Y auction at 1pm. WI yield ~4.66% exceeds 5Y stops since October's multiyear high 4.899%. New 2Y 4.94% vs 4.898% auction stop.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by ~2bp across tenors. Last auction cycle of Feb-April quarter begins with record $69b 2Y at 1pm. WI yield ~4.97% exceeds 2Y stops since Oct. Month-end index extension est is 0.05yr (on the small side as this week's bulky 2Y & 5Y issues join).
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by as much as 3bp-4bp with curve steeper, though only 2Y exceeded last week's high, topping 5% again. Ahead this week: last auctions of Feb-April quarter: $69b 2Y Tues, $70b 5Y Weds (both record sizes) & $44b 7Y Thurs. May-July sizes TBA May 1.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-4bp after brief 11bp-14bp slump on haven demand. Last auctions of Feb-April quarter next week: $69b 2Y Tues, $70b 5Y Weds (both record sizes) & $44b 7Y Thurs. May-July sizes TBA May 1, with nominals projected not to increase further.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by about 1bp, back near Monday's pre-retail-sales levels. $23b 5Y TIPS new-issue auction at 1pm. WI yield, ~9bp higher than spot (2.12%), exceeds all but one since 2008. Next week's auction sizes at 11am: $69b 2Y, $70b 5Y, $44b 7Y projected.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields mostly lower with curve steeper. 2Y 4.96% after yday's brush with 5%. $13b 20Y reopening (2nd) at 1pm. WI yield 4.89% > all but one 20Y result since 2020 debut (5.245% in Oct). Last of three small-value ($200m) buybacks tests at 1:40-2pm targets TIPS.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 2bp-4bp, paced by gilts (UK wage growth data). YTD highs reached only by 10Y (4.66%) & 30Y (4.77%). USD rampage continues, with Bloomberg's dollar index up 1.8% over past week. Stock futures rebounding from 7-wk low.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 4bp-5bp, unwinding most of Friday's declines. $119b coupon settlement ($52b net). Ahead this week: $13b 20Y reopening (2nd) Weds, $23b 5Y TIPS new issue Thurs. Also Weds, last of three small-value ($200m) buyback tests, targeting TIPS.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower inside yesterday's ranges -- which included YTD highs (5% for 2Y) -- led by euro-zone markets. Treasury's primary-dealer survey questions for 2Q refunding at noon. Ahead next week: $13b 20Y reopening (2nd) Weds, $23b 5Y TIPS new issue Thurs.
Can someone please teach the Xtranormal robot how to pronounce Lagarde. And get me a brioche.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed inside yday's selloff ranges (YTD highs, biggest daily loss since Aug 2022). Next week's auction sizes at 11am: $13b 20Y reopening (2nd) & $23b 5Y TIPS new issue projected. $22b 30Y reopening (2nd) at 1pm. WI yield 4.64% > 30Y results since Nov.
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A lot of notes on the wall next week.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-4bp after brief 11bp-14bp slump on haven demand. Last auctions of Feb-April quarter next week: $69b 2Y Tues, $70b 5Y Weds (both record sizes) & $44b 7Y Thurs. May-July sizes TBA May 1, with nominals projected not to increase further.
@beth_stanton I would add to this that inflation seasonality tends to be most pronounced at the shorter end of the curve. For longer maturity TIPS (>10years) the impact of seasonality on yields should be small. However, you can see some very bizarre real yields on ultra-short TIPS
Your boyfriend likes the two-year Treasury yield at these levels
Some (belated) professional news! I started last week as team leader for the US Rates/FX crew @business. I'm very excited to get to work with the talented reporters, strategists and editors who cover the all-important US Treasury and G-10 currency markets.
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@beth_stanton Yes m’am. I get the sugar free
See her note on swaps.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-4bp, adding to Monday's rout, with oil topping $85 for first time since Oct. 10Y rose more than 5bp to YTD high over 4.36%. Other tenors are within a few bp of YTD highs. Fed swaps price in 65bp of easing this year with 1st move in Sept.
Had a nice morning run by the coast of Aberdeen, Scotland with Dr Michelle Harvey. More than a decade ago her intermittent energy restriction studies to manage cancer opened new fasting approaches for diseases like cancer.
Some news! After a few great years at Bloomberg, I'm starting at the @FT next week, where I'll be a reporter and producer with the team behind Due Diligence. I'll cover corporate finance, and will also help out with bankruptcy and distress. Can't wait!!
.@ameliajpollard hired by @FT for Due Diligence newsletter: talkingbiznews.com/media-news/ft-…
Bad science that generates many clicks. Imagine someone asking you “when you ate for two random days” and then relate this answer to your health 20 years from now. The underlying assumption is you ate around the same time every day for the next 20 years – which most people don’t…
A large study found that eating all your meals within an 8-hour time frame — a popular form of intermittent fasting — nearly doubled heart disease deaths. wapo.st/3TGoekW
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Uncle Teddy!
A bull moose was spotted near Wilcox Lake Wild Forest munching on some hemlock. 🫎 🧵 ⤵️ #WildlifeWednesday 📽️: Jeff Nadler
If the plane is mostly empty, do I need to recalculate my personal carbon footprint?
Great color on today's double note auction from a must follow.
A thread about the timing of this week’s Treasury note and bond auctions: Double auctions like yesterday’s 2-year and 5-year are a fairly recent phenomenon. The full history can be found here: treasurydirect.gov/instit/anncere…
@beth_stanton Great stuff @beth_stanton
ahem -- NEWS starting today, I'll be anchoring 10-11am ET solo on @BloombergTV daily! you can expect a sharper focus on the equity market, single-stock stories and C-suite conversations pls tune in and send jokes see you @ 10am! ✨👽✨