Tech @MMA_Techie

@EPBResearch @ericwallerstein What insights do LEIs have for monetary policy? Over a year ago EPB said the insight was that they should cut rates. Where would we be today if we followed that advice?

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2 years ago

@EPBResearch Last year you were very confident the fed should have been cutting rates. How has ur view changed over time? Right then, right now? Wrong then, right now?

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@ah_shapiro @sffed Yea. My impression is that this analysis doesnt have much implication for cons going forward once it hits zero. However, that hasnt stopped the IMF WEO from implying that the depletion of excess savings was going to moderate future cons.

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2 years ago

@robin_j_brooks What about ez inflation was unanchored going into covid making the output inflation tradeoff larger

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2 years ago

@EPBResearch What's the insight of this analysis for the Fed?

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2 years ago

@EPBResearch What should the fed do with this insight?

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2 years ago

@MMTmacrotrader Can you show the primary deficit vs interest payments over this time?

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2 years ago

@tyillc @D_Blanchflower Well that wouldn't be very wise if they did say financial crisis but plenty of people in other institutions like the IMFs Rajan

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2 years ago

@MBjegovic @KennyPolcari Reaction to this?

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2 years ago

@MBjegovic when would you have put the FFR at neutral?

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2 years ago

@MBjegovic Yes you think the ffr should have been a lot lower for a pretty long time now so far. What does that counterfactual scenario look like for the ffr, cpi, gdp?

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2 years ago

@rev_cap AIT was created to support post gfc economic weakness not just for the price level to catch up as an attempt to reduce the real interest rate further when at the zero lower bound and improve the recovery that way. Had they done it in 2008 not 2012, qe may have been unnecessary

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2 years ago

@briangobosox How do you define soon?

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2 years ago

@EPBResearch Did the labor market crack?

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2 years ago

@ForwardGuidance @JackFarley96 @crudegusher "Voluntary" is a big assumption. Aramco has told everyone how fast their oilfields are depleting

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2 years ago

@JeffSnider_EDU

Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU

3 years ago

🚨 It's Official: The Recession Just Started 🚨 🧵THREAD🧵👇 1/ 📉 Start Point: The data is in, and the verdict's clear: the recession has begun. While the timing debate may linger, the markets are signaling 'go time'. Here's the breakdown. 2/ 📊 Jobs Report: October's jobs