Karl Schamotta @Karl_Schamotta
Chief Market Strategist, Corpay by day. Nerd by night. Toronto, Ontario Joined September 2014-
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The Canadian grocery market, but flipped:
The Canadian grocery market, but flipped:
Imagine supporting this while also claiming that the current account deficit is too wide...
Imagine supporting this while also claiming that the current account deficit is too wide...
"The China-Russia trade friendship may not be quite what you think" ft.com/content/4bc097… "Chinese companies export as much to Russia as they do to the Netherlands, an economy almost 2.5 times smaller than Russia’s that does not share a long border with China."
The funny thing is that this is about a guy who has almost certainly never said “Pardon Me” even once his entire life.
The funny thing is that this is about a guy who has almost certainly never said “Pardon Me” even once his entire life.
With 2024 rate cut odds now well below October’s levels, it’s a matter of time until “Fed-induced hard landing” fears make a reappearance on here.
True. Imports outpacing exports, and core PCE running at ~3.7% suggest underlying demand is still strong.
True. Imports outpacing exports, and core PCE running at ~3.7% suggest underlying demand is still strong.
Huge if true.
How the US became a net exporter of manufactured goods in the 1890s . . . A mesmerizingly beautiful graphic from @LDJEconomics that illustrates the point of the paper: jstor.org/stable/3211586
How the US became a net exporter of manufactured goods in the 1890s . . . A mesmerizingly beautiful graphic from @LDJEconomics that illustrates the point of the paper: jstor.org/stable/3211586
To be fair, when it comes to Mexican economic policymaking, they’re the same thing.
To be fair, when it comes to Mexican economic policymaking, they’re the same thing.
The hyperventilating about deficits is really bananas. Canada is struggling because of a lack of investment, our inability to build things (like housing), a lack of competition, and growth through increased labour rather than increased productivity. Deficits a sideshow.
The hyperventilating about deficits is really bananas. Canada is struggling because of a lack of investment, our inability to build things (like housing), a lack of competition, and growth through increased labour rather than increased productivity. Deficits a sideshow.
The narrative flip from no landing to recession is gonna be whiplash quick.
Imho, a narrowing in expected cross-Atlantic growth differentials will send the greenback down toward the middle of the “smile” in coming months - amusingly just as the “dollar wrecking ball” headlines reach an apex:
Imho, a narrowing in expected cross-Atlantic growth differentials will send the greenback down toward the middle of the “smile” in coming months - amusingly just as the “dollar wrecking ball” headlines reach an apex:
Term premia are creeping higher, but are still below zero. Markets are relatively unworried about sticky inflation eroding real returns, deglobalisation lowering inward investment, debt levels exceeding underlying demand, or the Fed becoming less interventionist. Will this last?
Well, I mean that was sort of the whole intention behind US financial sanctions.
Well, I mean that was sort of the whole intention behind US financial sanctions.
Your periodic reminder that especially (but not exclusively) in G10 FX, traders will almost always react to interest rate moves seeking to restore an economy towards internal balance by pushing the currency in a direction that takes the economy further away from external balance.
Consensus has moved too far. Time to sell the dollar.
Next month's PCE consumption release:
Next month's PCE consumption release: https://t.co/vq8BpIjBWv
Steve Saretsky @SteveSaretsky
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Martin Pelletier @MPelletierCIO
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John Pasalis @JohnPasalis
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Daniel Foch @daniel_foch
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Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno
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Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
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Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory
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Richard Dias @RichardDias_CFA
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Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
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Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰.. @jnordvig
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Dario Perkins @darioperkins
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Hilliard MacBeth CIM .. @hmacbe
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe
42K Followers 5K Following Professor @EconCalgary | Fellow @policy_school | Alum @econuoft @SFUBeedie | @thehubcanada Contributor | Inflation, govt finances, R, and more! | 💻 📊 📝 🍻
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thanos @CryptoBdarija
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Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet
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34K Followers 531 Following All things Toronto real estate - President and Broker of Record at @RealosophyRE Ideas at @movesmartly
Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno
227K Followers 2K Following CEO at Steno Research. Macro, investing and geopolitics. Host @ Real Vision and Weekly "Macro Sunday" and “Store Penge” podcasts.
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356K Followers 6K Following One half of Bloomberg's Odd Lots Podcast. One quarter of Light Sweet Crude.
Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory
167K Followers 2K Following Hope has two beautiful daughters - Anger and Courage. Anger at the way things are, and Courage to see that they do not remain as they are. - St. Augustine
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138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
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324K Followers 111 Following Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal • Author, "Trillion Dollar Triage”
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11K Followers 828 Following Global Macro Strategist, Co-Host of the Loonie Hour Podcast "Skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been" - W. Gretzky Views are my own.
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260K Followers 337 Following Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. Retweets, Likes and Follows are not endorsements.
Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis
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ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent
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Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
159K Followers 598 Following Subscribe at https://t.co/VGtUvtX2QK for latest thoughts and analysis. YouTube: https://t.co/wTjbN1iNQ8
Better Dwelling @BetterDwelling
20K Followers 243 Following Data driven housing news. Need to contact us? Hit us on our beeper or [email protected]. #VanRE #ToRE
Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰.. @jnordvig
59K Followers 2K Following PhD Economist, Founder+CEO @ExanteData & @MarketReaderInc Formerly: MD at Goldman, Head of Research at Nomura & Bridgewater. #1 Ranked by Institutional Investor
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60K Followers 2K Following MD Global Macro @TS_Lombard, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
Hilliard MacBeth CIM .. @hmacbe
13K Followers 7K Following When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash 2nd Ed- June 2018; investment advisor, portfolio manager, ski, golf - 310.99 ppm
Andy Constan @dampedspring
133K Followers 328 Following DampedSpring active macro & beta @2Graybeards for beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is advice
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derek guy @dieworkwear
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24
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19K Followers 1K Following Follow for stocks & sarcasm. Host on @bnnbloomberg @bloomberg @ctv. Same handle on Instagram. Subscribe to my daily newsletter 👇🏽
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On This Day RN @OnthisdayRN
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Marc Andreessen 🇺�.. @pmarca
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Francois Trahan, M²S.. @FrancoisTrahan
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Amni @AmniRusli
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Simon Lester @snlester
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starting a bank called Bank Of Josh so that any time I ask for a price in USDJPY we can all say “BOJ IS CHECKING RATES”
Last day on the buyside before transitioning back to the why?-side. Can't wait to tweet again.
Line stay flat. Line go up (nose).
See what happens when the government doesn't meddle in commodity prices or production
Imagine supporting this while also claiming that the current account deficit is too wide...
NEW: Trump’s economic advisers are considering ways to actively stop nations from shifting away from using the dollar, sources tell me, @nancook + @JenniferJJacobs Penalties being discussed: export controls, currency manipulation charges and tariffs bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@Brad_Setser Here is a recent paper by @RebelEconProf recently discussed on @DavidBeckworth podcast that notes the series of deliberate actions taken by the U.S. to strongly encourage everyone to use the dollar papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Right on cue
FWIW - It feels like we are getting close to a "spontaneous" wave of "Dollar Wrecking Ball" headlines.
Update: We have provided the robin with husky-mix fur to line her nest
I'm not convinced that the light fixture right next to my front door is the wisest place to make a nest... But who am I to argue with so prolific a bird?
My set of 100 Canadian macroeconomic indicator charts is up-to-date with the statistics available as of April 26. #cdnecon philipsmith.ca/Canadian_macro…
"Embracing and rejecting 'exorbitant privilege' at the same time" -- well said!
They also want to boost exports and will get back to complaining about USD overvaluation soon enough. (Read Lighthizer's book!) Embracing and rejecting "exorbitant privilege" at the same time. 1/
A whopping increase to 0.12% (from 0.07%) 🤦♂️
Toronto Mortgage Delinquency Rate Surges 71% Higher #ToRe #ToRe betterdwelling.com/toronto-mortga…
People say content on this site has devolved but I don’t feel it. 99% of people won’t care about this China power sector minutiae but I don’t know where else you would be able to get this type of detailed public feedback 👇 on a specific question or topic you are interested in.
@pretentiouswhat @GlennLuk We had a whole debate with the CREA China team on what that 20% means; it's one of the more obscure targets I've come across. A few points: -this is a policy on storage so would not be setting a new target for generation mix -it talks about "new energy share" but in this context…
My new Capitolism @thedispatch looks at how the global economy quickly adjusted post-Baltimore (1 month ago), & asks why so many people keep underestimating its resilience: "The Baltimore Accident and Other ‘Supply Chain Crises’ That Keep Not Happening" thedispatch.com/newsletter/cap…
If you have ever worked in foreign exchange sales or trading you know why “What time is BOJ?” Is funny. You might even feel some mild form of PTSD from it. To celebrate tomorrow’s BOJ, Spectra Markets made a hoodie featuring this question, posed in Japanese. Available now…
Setting up an air horn sound as an alert for USDJPY > 155 is all well and good...until you forget you did it and end up being shell-shocked at your desk 😂
@DavidBeckworth I am getting “dollar dominance!” For every and any prompt - assuming this is a feature rather than a bug 😊
Oh wow, the Yellen Treasury has boosted the bills share of total issuance up to the shockingly high... historical average 🤔. Stand down Fintwit, this is not the narrative you're looking for
Yellen has been issuing a lot (I mean, a lot) of T-Bills recently. T-Bills now exceed the recommended 20% share of total US debt. She does this to ease pressure on bond markets: large fiscal deficits require large bond issuance, and T-Bills are easier to absorb... 3/
No she has not. Some $25B paydown in TBills led to GC rate to slip. Totally made up hysteria around the "20%" rule of thumb. It's not a thing.
Yellen has been issuing a lot (I mean, a lot) of T-Bills recently. T-Bills now exceed the recommended 20% share of total US debt. She does this to ease pressure on bond markets: large fiscal deficits require large bond issuance, and T-Bills are easier to absorb... 3/
At the 20th Party Congress Xi vowed to “improve the anti-sanctions, anti-involvement and anti-‘long-arm jurisdiction’ mechanisms" The PBoC was listening and started buying gold! @freyabeamish @AndreasSteno @darioperkins @TS_Lombard Chart from @andrea_cicione
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