Trevor Tombe @trevortombe
Professor @EconCalgary | Fellow @policy_school | Alum @econuoft @SFUBeedie | @thehubcanada Contributor | Inflation, govt finances, R, and more! | 💻 📊 📝 🍻 trevortombe.com Calgary, Alberta Joined March 2009-
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My latest: What would a serious growth agenda look like? theglobeandmail.com/opinion/articl…
Today's data: payroll jobs! Down slightly in Feb (but basically flat). Up 0.9% over the past year. Here's the change since Feb 2020 by sector. Hotels/restaurants remain below pre-COVID levels. Prof/sci and health lead gains. Details: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti… #cdnecon
The Hunter Prize is shaking up Canadian policymaking. Submit your idea to address Canada’s housing affordability crisis by May 31st.
This evening’s waxing gibbous #Moon. #astronomy
Insight from Michael Smart on the capital gains inclusion rate change that is worth reading: financialpost.com/opinion/higher…
Today the AB govt announced changes to the default "Regulated Rate Option", including a name change ("Rate of Last Resort!") and moving from monthly pricing to 2-year fixed price terms. Some initial thoughts from someone who has followed this closely for a while (me, i mean me):
There is such a thing as an optimal level of risk-taking. Investors are perfectly well equipped to judge whether the return on an investment is sufficient to justify the risk. All that a tax subsidy does is to induce them to take risks that would not otherwise be justified.
Repeats the classic non-argument for special treatment of cap gains: risk. The reward for risk is supposed to be *the return.* Riskier investments already pay higher returns. They don’t need, and shouldn’t get, an additional premium from the taxpayer.
Repeats the classic non-argument for special treatment of cap gains: risk. The reward for risk is supposed to be *the return.* Riskier investments already pay higher returns. They don’t need, and shouldn’t get, an additional premium from the taxpayer.
Federal government business subsidies are huge. And mostly wasteful | Financial Post financialpost.com/opinion/federa…
Derrick Hunter: Slower growth, fewer jobs, a worse economy—the consequences of the capital gains tax shouldn’t be shrugged off thehub.ca/2024-04-19/der…
Canadian health care is the envy of no one, and our fierce loyalty to the mirage of a functioning system is literally killing people. We can’t even get the basics right, and we’re adding new programs on top. This is insane. theglobeandmail.com/opinion/articl…
(Correction to prior tweet) You can align the capital gains and dividends treatment by lowering PIT rates alone! What would it take? A move to two federal brackets of 15/19 (with 2nd bracket at 56k). Effect on revenue? Roughly $30b (but probably less).
Max Fawcett 🇨🇦 @maxfawcett
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Toutes nos félicitations @ty_olsen @currentfv
Privileged people at an elite school calling their own country the biggest threat in the world as Iran funds terror groups, China threatens Taiwan and the broader region and Russia is still waging war in Ukraine.
The mob at Boston University telling you exactly who their enemies are: "Biggest Threat in the World Today? Israel and the USA." If you think this is just about Israel, you are delusional.
When "climate denial" no longer means "denying the science of climate change" but rather "disagrees with my preferred policy solution" you've entirely lost the plot. Also presupposes that there isn't any *actual* climate change denial remaining, which is verifiably untrue.
The most insidious form of climate denial is no longer, "It's not happening," but the belief that incremental or tech solutions will solve this crisis. 1/6
Median market income (2022$), age 15+ 2014 AB 43,100 BC 29,000 2022 AB 34,800 (-19.3%) BC 34,600 (+19.3%) The median Albertan's market income went from 48.6% higher to 0.6% higher than the median British Columbian's...
Change in children under 15 between 2001 and 2021 in Calgary. When your neighbourhood is losing children it's a clear sign it needs fixing. New suburbs are doing fine on this metric (for now), some central ones are ok, but the older suburbs are crying for help.
Panelist describes the vibrancy of growing up in a family filled neighbourhood of Rideau roxboro and now the number of families have dwindled due to empty nesters. Need more ways for families to move into the community to make it healthy and vibrant.
Oh shit taxes. Sigh as always waiting on hubby….
Can everyone else stop doing their taxes for a sec the site is really slow
Had a chance to go see the Oldman Reservoir for myself today by Cowley. Picture tells the entire story.
The inability of the Leafs to win the Stanley Cup is clearly Trudeau's fault (son and father)...Also, Harper, Martin, Chretien, Campbell, Mulroney, and Clark. This is why Lester Pearson was the last great PM.
Kids these days don’t know the thrill of going into Blockbuster and going down the aisles, and finally finding a movie, only to see no DVD available behind the display case.
@trevortombe @TheHubCanada That's not to say, btw, that I actually think Pareto efficiency requires no capital gains taxes. We have lots of reasons to doubt that the Atkinson-Stiglitz result actually applies here. Income-shifting, heterogeneous preferences or rates of return, can all break the result.
@trevortombe @TheHubCanada Certainly. I just found it interesting that, for me, the phrase "good tax systems are neutral" brings to mind the Atkinson-Stiglitz results, which imply zero taxation would be best. But the way you have used the phrase seems equally reasonable, but w/ v diff policy implications
@trevortombe @RogerJBaker @David_Moscrop @andrew_leach @GK_Fellows I did appreciate the chart! Re divvy v. cap - I see the point but think it discourages reinvestment, esp in a owner-managed &/or private equity business. Why invest/refresh when you can just do a div recap and let the bank pay your return? Pubco is different. Less flexibility.
Norway actually increased its CGT to 37.84%, so we're #4 in the OECD. And when the Norwegian tax hike happened, this happened: theguardian.com/world/2023/apr…
Wanted: data on asset classes of taxable capital gains valued at $250,001 or more on T1 returns. In cases of business shares or dividends, % held in Canadian firms & by sector (NAICS codes) so we can link to productivity data.
@trevortombe @EDenhoff @TheHubCanada I know this is a joke, but don't make me tap the "General Equilibrium Effects" sign.